Groundwater Level Prediction/Forecasting and Assessment of Uncertainty Using SGS and ARIMA Models: A Case Study in the Bauru Aquifer System (Brazil)     

Takafuji  Eduardo Henrique de Moraes  Rocha  Marcelo Monteiro da  Manzione  Rodrigo Lilla 《Natural Resources Research》2019,28(2):487-503

Natural Resources Research - Best water management practices should involve the prediction of the availability of groundwater resources. To predict/forecast and consequently manage these water...  相似文献   

Stochastic simulation of time-series models combined with geostatistics to predict water-table scenarios in a Guarani Aquifer System outcrop area, Brazil   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

Rodrigo L. Manzione  Edson Wendland  Diego H. Tanikawa 《Hydrogeology Journal》2012,20(7):1239-1249

Stochastic methods based on time-series modeling combined with geostatistics can be useful tools to describe the variability of water-table levels in time and space and to account for uncertainty. Monitoring water-level networks can give information about the dynamic of the aquifer domain in both dimensions. Time-series modeling is an elegant way to treat monitoring data without the complexity of physical mechanistic models. Time-series model predictions can be interpolated spatially, with the spatial differences in water-table dynamics determined by the spatial variation in the system properties and the temporal variation driven by the dynamics of the inputs into the system. An integration of stochastic methods is presented, based on time-series modeling and geostatistics as a framework to predict water levels for decision making in groundwater management and land-use planning. The methodology is applied in a case study in a Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) outcrop area located in the southeastern part of Brazil. Communication of results in a clear and understandable form, via simulated scenarios, is discussed as an alternative, when translating scientific knowledge into applications of stochastic hydrogeology in large aquifers with limited monitoring network coverage like the GAS.  相似文献   

Transfer function-noise modeling and spatial interpolation to evaluate the risk of extreme (shallow) water-table levels in the Brazilian Cerrados   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Rodrigo L. Manzione  Martin Knotters  Gerard B. M. Heuvelink  Jos R. Von Asmuth  Gilberto Camara 《Hydrogeology Journal》2010,18(8):1927-1937

Water regimes in the Brazilian Cerrados are sensitive to climatological disturbances and human intervention. The risk that critical water-table levels are exceeded over long periods of time can be estimated by applying stochastic methods in modeling the dynamic relationship between water levels and driving forces such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. In this study, a transfer function-noise model, the so called PIRFICT-model, is applied to estimate the dynamic relationship between water-table depth and precipitation surplus/deficit in a watershed with a groundwater monitoring scheme in the Brazilian Cerrados. Critical limits were defined for a period in the Cerrados agricultural calendar, the end of the rainy season, when extremely shallow levels (<0.5-m depth) can pose a risk to plant health and machinery before harvesting. By simulating time-series models, the risk of exceeding critical thresholds during a continuous period of time (e.g. 10 days) is described by probability levels. These simulated probabilities were interpolated spatially using universal kriging, incorporating information related to the drainage basin from a digital elevation model. The resulting map reduced model uncertainty. Three areas were defined as presenting potential risk at the end of the rainy season. These areas deserve attention with respect to water-management and land-use planning.  相似文献   

Groundwater system response at sites with different agricultural land uses: case of the Guarani Aquifer outcrop area,Brotas/SP-Brazil     

Rodrigo Lilla Manzione  Bruna Camargo Soldera  Edson Cesar Wendland 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(1):28-35

A system identification approach can be incorporated in groundwater time series analysis, revealing information concerning the local hydrogeological situation. The aim of this work was to analyse water table fluctuations in an outcrop area of the Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) in Brotas/SP, Brazil, using data from a groundwater monitoring network. The water table dynamic was modelled using continuous time series models that reference the hydrogeological system upon which they operate. The model’s climatological inputs of precipitation and evapotranspiration generate impulse response (IR) functions with parameters that can be related to the physical conditions concerning the hydrological processes involved. The interpretation of the model parameters from two sets of monitoring wells selected at different land-use sites is presented, exemplifying the effect of different water table depths and the distance to the nearest drainage location. Systematic trends of water table depths were also identified from model parameters at specific periods and related to plant development, crop harvest and land-use changes.