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Predicted changes in fire weather suggest increases in lightning fire initiation and future area burned in the mixedwood boreal forest 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Forecasting future fire activity as a function of climate change is a step towards understanding the future state of the western mixedwood boreal ecosystem. We developed five annual weather indices based on the Daily Severity Rating (DSR) of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System and estimated their relationship with annual, empirical counts of lightning fire initiation for 588 landscapes in the mixedwood boreal forest in central-eastern Alberta, Canada from data collected between 1983 and 2001 using zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. Two indices contributed to a parsimonious model of initiation; these were Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR), and DSR-sequence count. We used parameter estimates from this model to predict lightning fire initiation under weather conditions predicted in 1 × CO2 (1975–1985), 2 × CO2 (2040–2049) and 3 × CO2 (2080–2089) conditions simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). We combined predicted initiation rates for these conditions with existing empirical estimates of the number of fire initiations that grow to be large fires (fire escapes) and the fire size distribution for the region, to predict the annual area burned by lightning-caused fires in each of the three climate conditions. We illustrated a 1.5-fold and 1.8-fold increase of lightning fire initiation by 2040–2049 and 2080–2089 relative to 1975–1985 conditions due to changes in fire weather predicted by the CRCM; these increases were calculated independent of changes in lightning activity. Our simulations suggested that weather-mediated increases in initiation frequency could correspond to a substantial increase in future area burned with 1.9-fold and 2.6-fold increases in area burned in 2040–2049 and 2080–2089 relative to 1975–1985 conditions, respectively. We did not include any biotic effects in these estimates, though future patterns of initiation and fire growth will be regulated not only by weather, but also by vegetation and fire management. 相似文献
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Piran C L White Steve Cinderby Dave Raffaelli Annemarieke de Bruin Alison Holt Meg Huby 《Area》2009,41(4):414-424
There has been much debate about the importance of policy-relevant research in geography over the last decade. There has also been an increasing recognition by policymakers of the importance of integrative (interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary) approaches to policy-relevant research. However, geographers have been more reluctant than their colleagues in other social and natural sciences to embrace integrative research collaborations. For integrative research to achieve its full potential and to encourage greater participation from the geographical research community, we need to increase our understanding of its potential value, but also some of the challenges that it poses, and how these can be overcome. In this paper, we consider the processes involved in conducting successful integrative research from the perspective of researchers involved in these projects. We base our analysis on the results of a questionnaire survey of international integrative research programmes on environmental issues in rural areas, combined with our own experiences of working in integrative research. We conclude that effective integrative research depends on the establishment of a clear conceptual framework, the use of appropriate temporal and spatial scales in the research, effective language and communication, time and commitment, and trust and respect. We also highlight the value of stakeholder involvement in integrative research to ensure the policy relevance of the work and provide a mechanism to assist with effective knowledge transfer of the results. 相似文献
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Threats to rural livelihoods and rural landscapes have increased over time as developed nations in particular look for cheaper and more locally based alternatives to traditional energy sources to drive national economies. In New South Wales, through the expansion of coal mines and coal seam gas (CSG), small towns such as Gloucester on the edge of the Upper Hunter are faced with competing visions which seek to redefine their future. Powerful and competing discourses over land use threaten not only the sustainability of the region but the integrity of its sense of place, centred on community, rurality, agricultural production and confrontation of risk from mining. The different discourses of local groups such as ‘tree-changers’, established residents and farmers conflict with those of external organisations such as the State government and mining/CSG companies which envisage Gloucester as a ‘balanced’ space of co-existence and position it as a new node in the carbon supply chain. 相似文献
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The practice of natural resource extraction remains a key function of the global economy, and has been the subject of a considerable body of research, across multiple academic disciplines. Growing awareness of the economic, socio-cultural and ecological aspects of extractive practices (and their impacts) have also forced change in the way in which this research is conceptualised. Yet, despite conceptual shifts, a lack of engagement with the felt and emotive dimensions of the extractive sector remains striking. As a complex and highly contested industry, acknowledging emotion is crucial to breaking down problematic representations of the sector as a ‘rational’, ‘economic’ and emotionless space. This paper emphasises the need to engage and prioritise emotional and affective registers when thinking about, and representing, the extractive sector. Specifically, this paper explores the role of emotion in problematising approaches to the material across the sector, as well as in unsettling the often taken-for-granted and highly gendered workplace identities that characterise the sector. Finally, this paper will highlight the importance of validating emotion in legitimising important relationships to place that conflict with extractive practices. In essence, this paper calls for more emotionally attuned approaches to the extractive sector, in order to engage with its profoundly emotive dimensions and impacts. 相似文献
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Water conservation, distribution and management are highly contested in the Hunter Valley of New South Wales. During the height of the Millennium drought calls from local politicians and community leaders alike suggested that there was a need to ‘drought-proof’ not only the Hunter region but also the Australian continent from recurring climatic events. In response to this, Hunter Water Corporation framed its long-term sustainable water policies around the proposed development of ‘Tillegra Dam’ as a means to ensure future water security for the region. Local residents, centred around the ‘No Tillegra Dam Group’, opposed the dam, pointing to its harmful effects and more sustainable demand-side options. Scientific studies also indicated that future droughts were unlikely to place stress on current water levels, thereby making the dam unnecessary. Hunter Water, however, co-opted the notion of ‘drought-proofing’ to argue for the continuation of large-scale infrastructure projects rather than pursue less costly, more sustainable options. As a result, arguments and discourses over the dam's construction became increasingly complex, involving environmental, economic and ethical issues that ultimately favoured local community perspectives. This paper examines how the different stakeholder arguments were framed and considers the important role that communities can play in altering decision making. 相似文献