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Unkašević Miroslava 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》1991,44(3-4):223-228
Summary For practical applications both the parent distribution of rainfall intensities and the distribution of their annual maxima are of interest. The relationship between these two distributions cannot be obtained from classical extreme value theory because of seasonal variation and serial correlation in the data. Mathematical results for the distribution of maxima in m-dependent sequences are presented to illustrate the effect of local dependence on the extreme value distribution. The average number of exceedances in a cluster is an important parameter in the relationship between the parent and the extreme value distribution. For 5-min rainfall data from Belgrade, quantiles of the annual maxima are overestimated by about 10 mm h–1 if the effect of serial correlation is ignored. This bias can easily be removed by taking the local clustering of large rainfall intensities in a rainy spell into account.With 4 Figures 相似文献
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Ivana Tošić Ivana Hrnjak Milivoj B. Gavrilov Miroslava Unkašević Slobodan B. Marković Tin Lukić 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,117(1-2):331-341
Annual and seasonal variability of precipitation observed at 92 stations in Vojvodina (Serbia) were analyzed during the period 1946–2006. The rainfall series were examined by means of the empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The first set of singular vectors explains from 68.8 % (in summer) to 81.8 % (in winter) of the total variance. The temporal variability of the time series associated with the main EOF configurations (the principal components, PCs) was examined using the Mann–Kendall test and the spectral analysis. The time series of PC1 revealed decreasing trend in the winter and spring precipitation and increasing trend in the autumn, summer, and annual precipitation. The relationships between the first PC and circulation patterns, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, and East Atlantic/West Russia pattern, were also investigated. The PC1, displaying temporal behavior of the first mode, demonstrated evident correspondence with the NAO index in analysis of the annual, winter, and autumn precipitation. Power spectra of the PC1 show statistically significant oscillations of about 3.3 years for the spring precipitation and about 8 and 15 years for the winter precipitation. Comparisons with spectral analysis of authors for some regions in Europe, most of them in the Mediterranean domain, show that similar periodicities are detected. 相似文献
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Jan Klimeš Miroslava Benešová Vít Vilímek Petr Bouška Alejo Cochachin Rapre 《Natural Hazards》2014,71(3):1617-1638
In April 2010, an ice/rockfall into Lake 513 triggered a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) along the Chucchun River in the Cordillera Blanca of Peru. This paper reconstructs the hydrological characteristics of this as yet undocumented event using a 1D flood model prepared with HEC-RAS. The principle model inputs were obtained during detailed field surveys of surface characteristics and topography within the river and across the adjacent floodplain; a total of 120 cross-sections were surveyed. These inputs were refined further by eyewitness accounts and additional geomorphological observations. The flood modelling has enabled us to constrain the extent of the water surface and its elevation at each cross-section in addition to defining the peak discharge (580 m3 s?1). These modelling results show good agreement with other information about the flood including: flood marks and minimum flood levels; the lake displacement wave height; the extent of the flooded area; and the travel time from Lake 513 to the confluence with the Santa River. This demonstrates that the model offers a reliable reconstruction of the basic hydrological characteristics of the GLOF. It provides important information about the flood intensity and significantly improves our ability to model future flood scenarios along both the studied river and within neighbouring catchments. The flood hazard, defined by the flood depth during peak discharge, shows that the majority of the damaged infrastructure (houses, bridges, and a drinking water treatment plant) was only subjected to low or medium flood intensities (defined by a maximum water depth of less than 2 m). These low flood intensities help to explain why the flooding caused comparatively minor damage despite the significant public attention it attracted. 相似文献
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Céline Péroux Miroslava Dessauges-Zavadsky TaeSun Kim Richard G. McMahon Sandro D'Odorico 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2002,281(1-2):543-544
Quasar absorbers provide an alternative approach to the study of galaxies. In particular, the detection of high-column density
systems allow to measure the cosmological evolution of the neutral gas mass and metals in the Universe. At z <3.5, 90% of
the HI mass is in damped Lyα systems (DLAs). But it has been suggested that atz > 3.5, 45% of the HI lies in systems below
the traditional DLA definition (2 x 1020 cm-2), in ‘sub-DLAs’ with 1019 < N(HI) < 2 x 1020 cm-2. Here we present a sample of sub-DLAs issued from UVES archive quasar spectra. We have measured the sub-DLA number density
redshift evolution and directly establish their column density distribution function. We have also undertaken a detailed metal
abundance analysis of this class of absorbers to compare with the characteristics of the well studied DLAs.
This revised version was published online in September 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
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In this study, heat waves at three meteorological stations in Serbia were analyzed based on the daily maximum temperature during the summer (June, July and August). The warmest summers as regards heat wave duration and severity occurred within the periods 1951–1952, 1987–1998 (especially 1994) and 2000–2007. The longest heat waves were recorded in 1952, lasting 16 days in Smederevska Palanka and 21 days in Ni?, while in 1994 in Belgrade lasting 18 days. The summer of 1994 in Belgrade and Smederevska Palanka, and 2003 in Ni? were characterized with the highest number of consecutive tropical days (21 and 29, respectively).The autoregressive-moving-average models were applied to generate long series of the daily maximum temperature, from which the relative frequencies of heat waves were estimated. The relationships between the longest heat waves, and the circulation conditions were analyzed using the subjective Hess–Brezowsky catalogue of weather types. 相似文献
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A statistical analysis of the daily maximum and mean monthly precipitation measured at ten meteorological stations in Serbia during the period 1949?C2007 is presented. Although the means of the daily maximum and monthly precipitation varied throughout the year, their ratio was almost uniform, with an average value of 32.6% for Serbia. The precipitation events within each year were ranked and then the trends on the ten wettest days of the year were assessed. Averaged across Serbia, the wettest day of the year produces 41.3?mm of precipitation and accounted for 6.3% of the total annual precipitation. Taken together, 35.5% (232.0?mm) of the total annual precipitation fell during the ten wettest days of the year. Over the course of the twentieth century, the average annual precipitation on the wettest day across Serbia increased by nearly 9%. Also, averaged across Serbia, statistically insignificant increasing trends were found on each of the ten wettest days of the year. Furthermore, four climate indices were analysed. Heavy precipitation indices (i.e., RR20 and R95T) increased in Serbia at the end of the twentieth century and thereafter. 相似文献
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Karin A. Koinig Christian Kamenik Roland Schmidt Anna Agustí-Panareda Peter Appleby Andrea Lami Miroslava Prazakova Neil Rose Øyvind A. Schnell Richard Tessadri Roy Thompson Roland Psenner 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2002,28(1):147-160
Changes in microfossils (diatoms, chrysophytes, chironomids and cladocera remains), geochemistry and deposition of atmospheric pollutants have been investigated in the sediment records of the alpine lake Gossenköllesee (Tyrol, Austria) spanning the last two centuries. The sediment records were compared with seasonal and annual air temperature trends calculated for the elevation (2417 m a.s.l.) and the geographical position (47° 1346N, 11° 0051E) of the lake, and with precipitation records available since 1866 from Innsbruck. Temperature trends followed a 20–30 year oscillation between cold and warm periods. Regarding long-term changes, temperature trends showed a U-shaped trend between 1780 and 1950, followed by a steep increase since 1975.Physical, geochemical, and organic parameters were not controlled by air temperature. Among the biological records only diatoms and chrysophytes reacted to air temperature changes: the relative abundance of planktonic diatoms increased during warm periods and changes in mean annual alpine air temperature explained 36.5% of their variation. The relation between abundance of seasonal stomatocyst types and air temperature varied on two different time scales: while summer stomatocysts were influenced by short term temperature fluctuations, the autumn stomatocysts were affected only by the long term changes. Other biological parameters exhibited a constant species composition (chironomids, pigments) or changes were small and independent of temperature (cladocera). Spheroidal carbonaceous fly-ash particles, and trends in Pb and Cr indicated increasing deposition of atmospheric pollutants but had no detectable effects on the biological parameters either. In respect to temperature variations over the last 200 years, this alpine lake is much less sensitive than expected and has thus to be regarded as a well buffered site. However, temperature alone is not sufficient to understand changes in species composition and other biogeochemical processes with unknown historical patterns might have affected species composition more strongly. 相似文献
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An extraordinary heat wave occurred in Serbia from July 14 to July 24 in 2007. Record values of the maximum temperatures were observed over almost the whole territory of Serbia and in Smederevska Palanka, a temperature of 44.9°C was registered, which was the absolute maximum value ever recorded. The highest increase over the previous absolute maximum temperature, dating back to 1888, of 3.1°C was registered in Belgrade. The Warm Spell Duration Indicator, from which the duration and severity of the heat waves are estimated, was applied to the series of the daily maximum temperatures in Smederevska Palanka. An analysis of the daily maximum temperatures and heat waves during the summer of 2007 revealed significant changes in the trends of anomalies and extreme (90%) quantiles. In addition, the main characteristics of the heat wave and the circulation conditions which caused the heat wave in Serbia during the summer 2007 were analyzed. 相似文献
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