Oil and gas resource assessment: The linkage between geological analysis and discovery process model results     

Lawrence J. Drew  John H. Schuenemeyer 《Natural Resources Research》1996,5(1):33-42

Two widely-used techniques to estimate the volume of remaining oil and gas resources are discovery process modeling and geologic assessment. Both were used in a recent national assessment of oil and gas resources of the United States. Parallel estimates were obtained for 27 provinces. Geological-based estimates can typically see into areas not available to discovery process models (that is areas with little or no exploration history) and thus, on average, yield higher estimates. However, a linear relation does exist between the mean estimates obtained from these two methods. In addition, other variables were found in a multiple regression model that explained much of the difference. Thus, it is possible to perform discovery process modeling and adjust the estimates to yield results that might be expected from geological-based assessments.  相似文献   

Some Aspects of Resource Uncertainty and Their Economic Consequences in Assessment of the 1002 Area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge     

Attanasi  Emil D.  Schuenemeyer  John H. 《Natural Resources Research》2002,11(2):109-120

Natural Resources Research - Exploration ventures in frontier areas have high risks. Before committing to them, firms prepare regional resource assessments to evaluate the potential payoffs. With...  相似文献   

Has the Largest Field Been Discovered Yet? PETRIMES and GRASP 25 Years Later     

Gordon M. Kaufman  Ray Faith  John H. Schuenemeyer 《Mathematical Geosciences》2016,48(8):873-890

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A three-dimensional model to predict future oil discoveries in spatially connected multiple plays     

J. H. Schuenemeyer  L. J. Drew  W. J. Bawiec 《Mathematical Geology》1980,12(5):459-472

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When are we really going to run out of oil and gas? Statistical, political, economic, and geoscientific issues     

T. C. Coburn  J. H. Schuenemeyer 《Mathematical Geology》1991,23(3):403-442

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Observed oil and gas field size distributions: A consequence of the discovery process and prices of oil and gas     

Lawrence J. Drew  Emil D. Attanasi  John H. Schuenemeyer 《Mathematical Geology》1988,20(8):939-953

If observed oil and gas field size distributions are obtained by random samplings, the fitted distributions should approximate that of the parent population of oil and gas fields. However, empirical evidence strongly suggests that larger fields tend to be discovered earlier in the discovery process than they would be by random sampling. Economic factors also can limit the number of small fields that are developed and reported. This paper examines observed size distributions in state and federal waters of offshore Texas. Results of the analysis demonstrate how the shape of the observable size distributions change with significant hydrocarbon price changes. Comparison of state and federal observed size distributions in the offshore area shows how production cost differences also affect the shape of the observed size distribution. Methods for modifying the discovery rate estimation procedures when economic factors significantly affect the discovery sequence are presented. A primary conclusion of the analysis is that, because hydrocarbon price changes can significantly affect the observed discovery size distribution, one should not be confident about inferring the form and specific parameters of the parent field size distribution from the observed distributions.This paper was presented at Emerging Concepts, MGUS-87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987.  相似文献   

Oil- and gas-resource assessment in certain South American Basins—An application of ARDS (Ver. 5.0) to complex exploration and discovery histories     

Lawrence J. Drew  John H. Schuenemeyer 《Natural Resources Research》1997,6(4):295-315

The modified Arps-Roberts Discovery Process Modeling System [ARDS (Ver. 4.01)] has recently been upgraded [ARDS (Ver. 5.0)] and applied to a wide variety of field discovery and wildcat drilling data with differing characteristics. ARDS is designed to forecast the number and sizes of undiscovered fields in an exploration play or basin by using historical drilling and discovery data. Fields used as input may be grown or ungrown. Two models for field growth—one offshore and the other onshore—have been implemented (Schuenemeyer and Drew, 1996). Uncertainty attributable to field growth is estimated via simulation. This upgrade of ARDS has been designed to handle situations when the data cannot be partitioned into homogeneous regions, but where estimation of the number of remaining oil and gas fields is still meaningful. In this upgrade of ARDS, many restrictions, which include those on the number of fields and wildcat wells required to forecast the size distribution of the oil and gas fields that remain to be discovered in an exploration play, a basin, or other target area, have been removed. In addition, flexibility has been gained by reforming the criteria for convergence of the model. In all, 32 basins and subbasins in South America were examined, 18 of which had sufficient data to be amenable to forecasting the field-size distribution of undiscovered oil and gas resources directly by using the Petroconsultants Inc. (1993) field discovery and wildcat drilling data. Overall, ARDS (Ver. 5.0) performed well in estimating the field-size distribution of undiscovered oil and gas resources in the 18 basins and subbasins. The aggregate volume of undiscovered petroleum resources was characterized by using histograms of the distribution of resources and the following five statistics: the mean, the 80% trimmed mean, and the 10,50 (median), and 90 quantiles. More than 38 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) in fields that contain more than one million BOE individually were forecast as remaining to be discovered. The largest basin, the Campos (Brazil), is forecast to contain nearly 10 billion BOE undiscovered resources. The East Venezuela Basin (excluding the Furrial Trend) is forecast to contain about 8 billion BOE; the Austral-Magallanes Basin (Argentina and Chile), about 7 billion BOE; and the Napo (Colombia and Ecuador) and the Neuquen (Argentina) Basins, between 3 billion and 4 billion BOE. A subset of these basins that illustrate the increased flexibility of ARDS are discussed.  相似文献   

A petroleum discovery-rate forecast revisited—The problem of field growth     

Lawrence J. Drew  John H. Schuenemeyer 《Natural Resources Research》1992,1(1):51-60

A forecast of the future rates of discovery of crude oil and natural gas for the 123,027-km² Miocene/Pliocene trend in the Gulf of Mexico was made in 1980. This forecast was evaluated in 1988 by comparing two sets of data: (1) the actual versus the forecasted number of fields discovered, and (2) the actual versus the forecasted volumes of crude oil and natural gas discovered with the drilling of 1,820 wildcat wells along the trend between January 1, 1977, and December 31, 1985. The forecast specified that this level of drilling would result in the discovery of 217 fields containing 1.78 billion barrels of oil equivalent; however, 238 fields containing 3.57 billion barrels of oil equivalent were actually discovered. This underestimation is attributed to biases introduced by field growth and, to a lesser degree, the artificially low, pre-1970's price of natural gas that prevented many smaller gas fields from being brought into production at the time of their discovery; most of these fields contained less than 50 billion cubic feet of producible natural gas.  相似文献   

Forecasting rates of hydrocarbon discoveries in a changing economic environment     

John H. Schuenemeyer  Emil D. Attanasi 《Marine and Petroleum Geology》1984,1(4):313-318

A method is presented for the estimation of undiscovered oil and gas resources in partially explored areas where economic truncation has caused some discoveries to go unreported; therefore distorting the relationship between the observed discovery size distribution and the parent or ultimate field size distribution. The method is applied to the UK's northern and central North Sea provinces. A discovery process model is developed to estimate the number and size distribution of undiscovered fields in this area as of 1983. The model is also used to forecast the rate at which fields will be discovered in the future. The appraisal and forecasts pertain to fields in size classes as small as 24 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE). Estimated undiscovered hydrocarbon resources of 11.79 billion BOE are expected to be contained in 170 remaining fields. Over the first 500 wildcat wells after 1 January 1983, the discovery rate in this areas is expected to decline by 60% from 15 million BOE per wildcat well to six million BOE per wildcat well.  相似文献   

Computer program to analyze directional data, based on the methods of Fisher and Watson     

John H. Schuenemeyer  George S. Koch Jr.  Richard F. Link 《Mathematical Geology》1972,4(3):177-202

Based on the methods of Fisher and Watson,Fortran iv computer programs are presented for the following analyses of directional observations on the sphere: (1) to determine if points are randomly distributed; (2) to estimate the azimuth and inclination of the center (mean direction) of a cluster and to estimate the precision (closeness) with which points are clustered; (3) to determine if two or more clusters have the same mean direction; (4) to determine if two clusters have the same precision of clustering; and (5) to locate the pole of a greatcircle girdle of points. Limitations of these analyses for undirected directional observations on the hemisphere also are given.  相似文献