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GeoJournal - The Shatt Al-Arab River region (SARR) in Iraq was an economically important area for food production. By the 1970s the environment of this region had begun to deteriorate, and since... 相似文献
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Ashton M. Shortridge Michael F. Goodchild 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(3):227-243
This paper identifies analytical and empirical methods for determining the probability that lines and areas intersect tiles in a regular tessellation. Such intersections are common in geographical information systems (GIS) applications. Knowledge of intersection probabilities is valuable in many instances, including estimating complexity and time required to process a distance or viewshed operation, developing optimal tiling schemes for national georeferencing systems, precalculating the number of map sheets a spatial feature may occupy, and identifying appropriate cell resolutions for vector-to-raster conversions. Buffon's Needle-type solutions from the field of geometric probability provide the framework for deriving probabilities for lines. Probabilities for simple areas like rectangles and circles are derived using geometric techniques and illustrated using hypothetical examples. Employing such probabilities in spatial analysis may yield more rigorous and theoretically informed results from GIS analysis, leading to better decisions and greater insight into spatial phenomena. 相似文献
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A 10-year simulation of the atmosphere has been performed with a two-level global general circulation model. The model takes account of realistic topography and the hydrological cycle, and computes its own cloud cover, snowfall and sea ice distributions. The seasonally varying sea surface temperatures are specified from climatology. The results presented in this paper are restricted to hydrological aspects of the integration, particularly the soil moisture variations. The model exhibits considerable temporal and regional variability in its simulation of the hydrological cycle, generally reproducing quite fair agreement with observations. Some geographical regions were found to have very noticeable interannual variability, with the occurrence of annual or multi-annual drought a feature at a number of locations. The implications of such naturally occurring drought are discussed. 相似文献
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James R. Shortridge 《The Professional geographer》1991,43(3):280-291
In the period between 1800 and 1950, 42 authors wrote American regional novels and poetry popular enough to be tentatively labeled place defining. These books provide concise statements of perceived regional values. As a group they suggest that the West has been dominated by the single, enduring image of youthful self-reliance; the Northeast by a set of small-scale characterizations; and the Midwest and South by more complex depictions of egalitarian pastoralism and cavalier society, respectively, each modified and challenged over time. 相似文献
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Glenn O'Neil Ashton Shortridge 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(7):1292-1311
Absolute elevation error in digital elevation models (DEMs) can be within acceptable National Map Accuracy standards, but still have dramatic impacts on field-level estimates of surface water flow direction, particularly in level regions. We introduce and evaluate a new method for quantifying uncertainty in flow direction rasters derived from DEMs. The method utilizes flow direction values derived from finer resolution digital elevation data to estimate uncertainty, on a cell-by-cell basis, in flow directions derived from coarser digital elevation data. The result is a quantification and spatial distribution of flow direction uncertainty at both local and regional scales. We present an implementation of the method using a 10-m DEM and a reference 1-m lidar DEM. The method contributes to scientific understanding of DEM uncertainty propagation and modeling and can inform hydrological analyses in engineering, agriculture, and other disciplines that rely on simulations of surface water flow. 相似文献
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Scott A. Drzyzga Ashton M. Shortridge Randall J. Schaetzl 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2012,47(3):357-371
This study reviews Glacial Lake Algonquin, examines the Main and two “Upper Group” phases in northern Michigan and nearby Ontario, reports their spatial extents, and reassesses the lake history in light of isostatic rebound. Our paper presents the most accurate and detailed maps of Glacial Lake Algonquin in this region that have yet been published. Fieldwork was conducted at 243 ancient shoreline sites, which yielded position data that support geostatistical models that represent differentially upwarped water planes. Model parameters that describe water plane tilt are reported for the Main, Ardtrea and Upper Orillia phases. Geostatistical water plane models were used to adjust a digital contemporary elevation model, thereby creating a digital proglacial elevation model for each phase. Maps of these phases and the data that support them suggest (1) proto-Cockburn Island, Ontario existed as an islet in the lake that was deglaciated before the outlet at North Bay, Ontario was opened, (2) the Main and Ardtrea phases of the lake extended into the northern Lake Michigan basin, and (3) the Main and Ardtrea water planes intersect at places near Little Traverse Bay (by Lake Michigan) and Thunder Bay (by Lake Huron). Mapped isobases generally conform to those published in other works and suggest the regional pattern of isostatic adjustment has not changed substantially during the last 13,000 years. 相似文献
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There is increasing concern that avoiding climate change impacts will require proactive adaptation, particularly for infrastructure systems with long lifespans. However, one challenge in adaptation is the uncertainty surrounding climate change projections generated by general circulation models (GCMs). This uncertainty has been addressed in different ways. For example, some researchers use ensembles of GCMs to generate probabilistic climate change projections, but these projections can be highly sensitive to assumptions about model independence and weighting schemes. Because of these issues, others argue that robustness-based approaches to climate adaptation are more appropriate, since they do not rely on a precise probabilistic representation of uncertainty. In this research, we present a new approach for characterizing climate change risks that leverages robust decision frameworks and probabilistic GCM ensembles. The scenario discovery process is used to search across a multi-dimensional space and identify climate scenarios most associated with system failure, and a Bayesian statistical model informed by GCM projections is then developed to estimate the probability of those scenarios. This provides an important advancement in that it can incorporate decision-relevant climate variables beyond mean temperature and precipitation and account for uncertainty in probabilistic estimates in a straightforward way. We also suggest several advancements building on prior approaches to Bayesian modeling of climate change projections to make them more broadly applicable. We demonstrate the methodology using proposed water resources infrastructure in Lake Tana, Ethiopia, where GCM disagreement on changes in future rainfall presents a major challenge for infrastructure planning. 相似文献
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