Boreal temperature variability inferred from maximum latewood density and tree-ring width data, Wrangell Mountain region, Alaska   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Nicole K. Davi  Gordon C. Jacoby  Gregory C. Wiles 《Quaternary Research》2003,60(3):252-262

Variations in both width and density of annual rings from a network of tree chronologies were used to develop high-resolution proxies to extend the climate record in the Wrangell Mountain region of Alaska. We developed a warm-season (July–September) temperature reconstruction that spans A.D. 1593–1992 based on the first eigenvector from principal component analysis of six maximum latewood density (MXD) chronologies. The climate/tree-growth model accounts for 51% of the temperature variance from 1958 to 1992 and shows cold in the late 1600s–early 1700s followed by a warmer period, cooling in the late 1700s–early 1800s, and warming in the 20th century. The 20th century is the warmest of the past four centuries. Several severely cold warm-seasons coincide with major volcanic eruptions. The first eigenvector from a ring-width (RW) network, based on nine chronologies from the Wrangell Mountain region (A.D. 1550–1970), is correlated positively with both reconstructed and recorded Northern Hemisphere temperatures. RW shows a temporal history similar to that of MXD by increased growth (warmer) and decreased growth (cooler) intervals and trends. After around 1970 the RW series show a decrease in growth, while station data show continued warming, which may be related to increasing moisture stress or other factors. Both the temperature history based on MXD and the growth trends from the RW series are consistent with well-dated glacier fluctuations in the Wrangell Mountains and some of the temperature variations also correspond to variations in solar activity.  相似文献   

On the rifting dynamics of plate divergence and magma accumulation at oceanic ridge axes     

Wolf R. Jacoby  Bettie Higgs 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1995,145(3-4):505-521

Rifting dynamics at spreading axes is governed by two processes: the large-scale plate divergence and the local magma accumulation in the crust-mantle transition layer. Both evolve simultaneously. A model is developed particularly for the situation in Iceland where a well studied rifting episode occurred in the Krafla volcanic system 1975–1984. Both the divergence and the buoyant rise of magma create tensile deviatoric stress in the axial region, but while divergence generates an altogether extensional stress field, uprising of buoyant melt produces tension only near the axis but compression of the sides. The buoyant rise is driven by the differential pressure gradient in rock and melt. The processes are studied with a two-dimensional finite-element routine. Presently thermal effects are neglected. The model parameters are density difference, size of the buoyant body, externally applied stress field, mechanical properties of rock and melt. Relatively small amounts of divergence and small increases of buoyancy are shown to generate axial tension which can overcome the tensile strength. Axial tension produced by buoyant bodies can even overcome lateral compression. Observed long intervals of quiescence require either large rock strength, quasi-continuous stress relaxation, small buoyant bodies, and/or a compressive deviatoric stress normal to the axis during much of the time between rifting episodes. Buoyant rise and injection of melt must be important in generating compression.  相似文献   

Spatial Response to Major Volcanic Events in or about AD 536, 934 and 1258: Frost Rings and Other Dendrochronological Evidence from Mongolia and Northern Siberia: Comment on R. B. Stothers, ‘Volcanic Dry Fogs, Climate Cooling, and Plague Pandemics in Europe and the Middle East’ (Climatic Change, 42, 1999)     

Rosanne D'Arrigo  David Frank  Gordon Jacoby  Neil Pederson 《Climatic change》2001,49(1-2):239-246

Hypothesized large-scale climatic extremes require verification from distantregions in order toconfirm the magnitude and timing of such events. Three of the most massivehypothesized volcanic events of the past two millennia, occurring in or aboutAD 536, 934 and1258, had profound climatic and demographic repercussions over much of Europe,the MiddleEast, and other areas, according to historical accounts recently described inStothers (1998, 1999,2000) as well as other research. Here we report on frost ring and otherdendrochronologicalevidence derived from a 1738-year tree-ring chronology from Mongolia andmillennial-scaletree-ring data from northern Siberia which demonstrate that these three eventsmay have alsoimpacted conditions in these distant regions.  相似文献   

Plate kinematics and the gravity field     

Wolfgang R. Jacoby  Eckbert Seidler 《Tectonophysics》1981,74(1-2)

Both the system of plate motions and the global gravity field or the geoid are now so precisely known that it seems worthwhile to look for quantitative relationships. Some aspects, such as the general occurrence of positive gravity and geoid anomalies in regions of plate convergence, have long been known. Our aim is to describe the gravitational field in terms of plate-kinematic parameters and we present a preliminary step in this direction: for four plates (Pacific, Nazca, Indian, American) we have computed the correlation of the Gem 8 geoid heights (with reference to an ellipsoid of 1/298.255 ellipticity) with distance from the poles of motion and distance from the axes in an “absolute” frame. The geoid tends first to drop from the ridge axes to at least 10° distance and then to rise toward the convergence zones. This trend is strongest for the Indian plate in collision with Eurasia, is smaller, but very clear for the oceanic Pacific and Nazca plates, and is not developed for the American plate which does not subduct. We did not find a consistent relationship for the geoid with distance from the pivots. A possible interpretation of the results is the return flow of the large-scale mantle circulation.  相似文献   

Iceland and the North Atlantic: A review     

W. R. Jacoby Dr. 《GeoJournal》1979,3(3):253-262

Iceland is a special volcanic island in an anomalous ocean basin. A review of the unusual features shows that among others topography and gravity are broadly positive, spreading has been and still is complex, seismicity is slightly diffuse and the chemistry of the basalts is different from that at normal ridges. In summary we observe a tendency of lithospheric dispersal and spreading in the North Atlantic and its surroundings. These observations together with what is known about Icelandic crust, heat flow, tectonic history, etc., point to a hot mantle upwelling beneath Iceland. The shape of the upwelling currents is not known. Although at present much speculation is possible, the authors prefers to think of a broad rising region uplifting the lithospheric plates such that they tend to slide away from Iceland more forcefully than is the case from normal spreading ridges.  相似文献   

Gulf of Alaska Atmosphere-Ocean Variability Over Recent Centuries Inferred from Coastal Tree-Ring Records   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

G. C. Wiles  R. D. D'Arrigo  G. C. Jacoby 《Climatic change》1998,38(3):289-306

Eight tree-ring chronologies from coastal sites along the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) are used to develop a 227-year (1762–1988) reconstruction of spring/summer (March–September) coastal land temperatures for the region. This reconstruction explains 35% of the variance in the instrumental temperature data. The tree-ring records and reconstruction reflect the documented 1976 transition from cold to warm conditions in the North Pacific and are consistent with regional temperature compilations. Three of the eight ring-width series, from elevational timberline sites where trees are particularly stressed by temperature, extend back to A.D. 1600 and are used to identify additional occurrences of such transitions. The first principal component (PC) scores of these three longer records are positively correlated with spring (March–May) land and sea surface temperatures for the GOA region and are used to reconstruct land surface temperatures. Decadal-scale fluctuations in the reconstructions show agreement with decade-long changes in the intensity of the Aleutian Low pressure cell over the past century, suggesting that the tree-ring data may provide an index of past circulation changes for the northeast Pacific. Blackman-Tukey spectral analyses of both reconstructions indicate significant power at 7–11 years, with additional peaks at 3 years for the spring/summer reconstruction and 19 years for the longer spring temperature series. The modes of variation at about 3 and 7 years may correspond to those associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation bandwidth, whereas the 19-year term may relate to a proposed 20-year cycle of North Pacific circulation. The spring temperature series shows generally increased growth over the past century, coinciding with warmer spring temperatures in south coastal Alaska over this interval. Comparison with the entire spring series suggests that the recent warming exceeds temperature levels of prior centuries, extending back to A.D. 1600.  相似文献   

Hotspot distribution, gravity, mantle tomography: evidence for plumes     

Eckbert Seidler  Wolfgang R. Jacoby  Hasan Cavsak 《Journal of Geodynamics》1999,27(4-5)

Thermal convection is the motor of Earth dynamics and therefore is the link between plate motions, hotspots, seismic velocity variations in the mantle, and anomalies of the gravity field. Small scale mantle anomalies, such as plumes, do, however, generally escape detection by tomographic methods. It is attempted to approach the problem of detection in a somewhat statistical manner. Correlations are sought between spherical harmonic expansions of the fields under study: the hotspot distribution, mantle velocity variations, gravity, heat flow. Using spherical harmonic representations of global fields implies integration and averaging over the whole globe. Thus, although relationships may remain masked in the space domain by a multitude of effects, tendencies may become visible in the spectra or in appropriate averages.The main results are the following: There is a significant long wavelength (n=2,3) negative correlation between the hotspot density and the P-wave velocity variation in the lower mantle. Positive hotspot density of degree 2 to 9 generally correlates with low seismic velocity in all depths of the upper mantle and with positive gravity. This fits well with plume-type convection. These results are also confirmed regionally for a number of individual mid-ocean ridges and hotspots. The hotspot density and the free air anomalies are distinctly positive above regions of low velocity extending to great depth. The effect is not distinct at ridges with shallow velocity anomalies. In a general way, we suggest that the antipodal upwellings (Pacific, Africa) are divided by downwelling currents around the shrinking Pacific. Plate boundaries can easily move away from their past connections with the deeper mantle. Small scale plume currents seem to be depicted in the hotspot expansion. © 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.  相似文献   

Clastic dikes in the Dead Sea basin as indicators of local site amplification     

Jacoby  Y.  Weinberger  R.  Levi  T.  Marco  S. 《Natural Hazards》2015,75(2):1649-1676

Natural Hazards - Early Holocene seismic activity triggered fluidization and clastic-dike emplacement within Late Pleistocene lacustrine Lisan Formation sediments in the Dead Sea basin (DSB)....  相似文献   

Late Holocene upper bounds of flood magnitudes and twentieth century large floods in the ungauged, hyperarid alluvial Nahal Arava, Israel   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Yael Jacoby  Tamir Grodek  Yehouda Enzel  Naomi Porat  Eric V. McDonald  Ofer Dahan   《Geomorphology》2008,95(3-4):274-294

The impact of large twentieth century floods on the riparian vegetation and channel morphology of the relatively wide anabranching and braided Nahal Arava, southern Israel, was documented as part of developing tools to (a) identify recent large floods, (b) determine these flood's respective magnitudes in alluvial ungauged streams, and (c) determine long-term upper bounds to flood stages and magnitudes. Along most of its course Nahal Paran, a major tributary that impacts the morphology, floods and sediments of Nahal Arava at the study reach, is a coarse-gravel, braided ephemeral stream. Downstream of the Arava–Paran confluence, aeolian and fluvial sand delivered from eastern Arava valley alters the channel morphology. The sand has accreted up to 2.5 m above the distinct current channels, facilitating the recording of large floods. This sand enhances the establishment of denser riparian vegetation (mainly Tamarix nilotica and Haloxylon persicum) that interacts with floods and affects stream morphology. A temporal association was found between specific floods recorded upstream and tree-ring ages of re-growth of flood-damaged tamarix trees (‘Sigafoos trees’) in the past 30 years. This association can be utilized for developing a twentieth century flood chronology in hyperarid ungauged basins in the region. The minimum magnitude of the largest flood that covered the entire channel width, estimated from flood deposits, is approximately 1700–1800 m³s^− 1. This is a larger magnitude than the largest gauged flood of 1150 m³s^− 1 that occurred in 1970 about 30 km upstream in Nahal Paran. Our estimation agrees with flood magnitude estimated from the regional envelope curve of the largest floods. Based on Holocene alluvial stratigraphy and OSL dating in the study reach we also conclude that flood stages did not reach the late Holocene ( 2.2 ka) surface and therefore we estimate a non-exceedance upper bound of  2000 m³s^− 1 flood magnitudes for Nahal Arava during that interval. This study indicates that in unfavorable areas the combination of hydrology, fluvial morphology and botanic evidence can increase our understanding of ungauged basins and give information crucial for hydrology planning.  相似文献   

Scenarios with MIT integrated global systems model: significant global warming regardless of different approaches   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Ronald Prinn  Sergey Paltsev  Andrei Sokolov  Marcus Sarofim  John Reilly  Henry Jacoby 《Climatic change》2011,104(3-4):515-537

A wide variety of scenarios for future development have played significant roles in climate policy discussions. This paper presents projections of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, sea level rise due to thermal expansion and glacial melt, oceanic acidity, and global mean temperature increases computed with the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) using scenarios for twenty-first century emissions developed by three different groups: intergovernmental (represented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), government (represented by the U.S. government Climate Change Science Program) and industry (represented by Royal Dutch Shell plc). In all these scenarios the climate system undergoes substantial changes. By 2100, the CO₂ concentration ranges from 470 to 1020 ppm compared to a 2000 level of 365 ppm, the CO₂-equivalent concentration of all greenhouse gases ranges from 550 to 1780 ppm in comparison to a 2000 level of 415 ppm, oceanic acidity changes from a current pH of around 8 to a range from 7.63 to 7.91, in comparison to a pH change from a preindustrial level by 0.1 unit. The global mean temperature increases by 1.8 to 7.0°C relative to 2000. Such increases will require considerable adaptation of many human systems and will leave some aspects of the earth??s environment irreversibly changed. Thus, the remarkable aspect of these different approaches to scenario development is not the differences in detail and philosophy but rather the similar picture they paint of a world at risk from climate change even if there is substantial effort to reduce emissions.  相似文献