基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测     

李建新  刘小生  肖钢  周文  刘仁志 《大地测量与地球动力学》2020,40(6):577-580

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。  相似文献   

Variations in glacier volume and snow cover and their impact on lake storage in the Paiku Co Basin,in the Central Himalayas     

Xingxing Zhang  Rui Wang  Zhijun Yao  Zhaofei Liu 《水文研究》2020,34(8):1920-1933

Glaciers and snow cover are important constituents of the surface of the Tibetan Plateau. The responses of these phenomena to global environmental changes are sensitive, rapid and intensive due to the high altitudes and arid cold climate of the Tibetan Plateau. Based on multisource remote sensing data, including Landsat images, MOD10A2 snow product, ICESat, Cryosat-2 altimetry data and long-term ground climate observations, we analysed the dynamic changes of glaciers, snow melting and lake in the Paiku Co basin using extraction methods for glaciers and lake, the degree-day model and the ice and lake volume method. The interaction among the climate, ice-snow and the hydrological elements in Paiku Co is revealed. From 2000 to 2018, the basin tended to be drier, and rainfall decreased at a rate of −3.07 mm/a. The seasonal temperature difference in the basin increased, the maximum temperature increased at a rate of 0.02°C/a and the minimum temperature decreased at a rate of −0.06°C/a, which accelerated the melting from glaciers and snow at rates of 0.55 × 10⁷ m³/a and 0.29 × 10⁷ m³/a, respectively. The rate of contribution to the lake from rainfall, snow and glacier melted water was 55.6, 27.7 and 16.7%, respectively. In the past 18 years, the warmer and drier climate has caused the lake to shrink. The water level of the lake continued to decline at a rate of −0.02 m/a, and the lake water volume decreased by 4.85 × 10⁸ m³ at a rate of −0.27 × 10⁸ m³/a from 2000 to 2018. This evaluation is important for understanding how the snow and ice melting in the central Himalayas affect the regional water cycle.  相似文献   

Study of the flood control scheduling scheme for the Three Gorges Reservoir in a catastrophic flood          下载免费PDF全文

Shanghong Zhang  Zhu Jing  Wenda Li  Yujun Yi  Yong Zhao 《水文研究》2018,32(11):1625-1634

The Three Gorges Project is the world's largest water conservancy project. According to the design standards for the 1,000‐year flood, flood diversion areas in the Jingjiang reach of the Yangtze River must be utilized to ensure the safety of the Jingjiang area and the city of Wuhan. However, once these areas are used, the economic and life loss in these areas may be very great. Therefore, it is vital to reduce this loss by developing a scheme that reduces the use of the flood diversion areas through flood regulation by the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), under the premise of ensuring the safety of the Three Gorges Dam. For a 1,000‐year flood on the basis of a highly destructive flood in 1954, this paper evaluates scheduling schemes in which flood diversion areas are or are not used. The schemes are simulated based on 2.5‐m resolution reservoir topography and an optimized model of dynamic capacity flood regulation. The simulation results show the following. (a) In accord with the normal flood‐control regulation discharge, the maximum water level above the dam should be not more than 175 m, which ensures the safety of the dam and reservoir area. However, it is necessary to utilize the flood diversion areas within the Jingjiang area, and flood discharge can reach 2.81 billion m³. (b) In the case of relying on the TGR to impound floodwaters independently rather than using the flood diversion areas, the maximum water level above the dam reaches 177.35 m, which is less than the flood check level of 180.4 m to ensure the safety of the Three Gorges Dam. The average increase of the TGR water level in the Chongqing area is not more than 0.11 m, which indicates no significant effect on the upstream reservoir area. Comparing the various scheduling schemes, when the flood diversion areas are not used, it is believed that the TGR can execute safe flood control for a 1,000‐year flood, thereby greatly reducing flood damage.  相似文献   

基于GPIB接口的计数器数据采集与控制软件   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

杨旭海  胡永辉  李志刚 《时间频率学报》2002,25(1):43-46

在Windows平台上 ,使用VC 6 .0开发了一套基于GPIB接口的计数器数据采集与控制软件 ,其特点是采用了多线程机制 ,可实现对计数器的控制 ,以及数据的采集与实时显示。  相似文献   

一种有发展前景的隧道及井巷超前预报技术——电磁导弹探测技术     

李貅  薛国强 《地球科学与环境学报》2002,24(1):12-14

对于隧道和煤矿井巷的安全掘进 ,超前预报显得特别重要。但由于掌子面前的特殊环境限制及多种干扰的严重影响 ,给隧道及井巷超前预报技术的研究带来许多困难。在瞬变电磁理论的基础上 ,引入新的电磁传播理论———电磁导弹技术 ,作为对该技术的初步探索 ,文章论证了该技术在隧道超前预报中应用的可能性 ,并提出了研究的主要内容和发展方向以及可能取得的新的技术突破和技术支撑  相似文献   

流星暴的航天定义     

马月华  徐品新  李广宇  包纲 《天文学报》2005,46(2):158-164

定义ZHR^*以每小时穿过1000平方公里天顶截面的，能在铝质表面打出直径不小于1厘米的弹坑的流星体数，作为流星群对航天安全威胁强度的定量标志，给出了从ZHR到ZHR^*的换算公式．用ZHR^*取代ZHR来评价20世纪90年代以来的一些强流星雨，发现1998年的贾可比尼(天龙座)流星雨对航天安全来说，是比公认的1999、2001、2002年3次狮子座流星暴强数倍的更强流星暴．  相似文献   

ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY AND SCENARIOS OF URBANIZATION IN ARID AREA——A Case Study in Wuwei City of Gansu Province   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

YOUFei LIYu DONGSuo-cheng 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2005,15(2):120-130

1IN T R O D U C T IO N The western China isfacinggrowing problems of eco- logicaland economic development. The disparitiebse- tween the socio-economy of the western and eastern China were enlarging, and the major ecologicalprob- lems stilelvolve as past(H…  相似文献   

银盘恒星运动学和化学丰度与银河系结构     

侯金良  陈力  常瑞香  孙振娜 《天文研究与技术》2004,1(1):16-27

大样本的银盘恒星的运动学数据和元素丰度特征是研究银河系结构及演化，尤其是银盘形成和演化的2个重要探针。本文首先介绍了银河系的总体结构特征，然后较详细的综述了以上2个探针的重要性。对我国LAMOST项目在研究银河系结构方面，尤其是银盘的形成和演化方面的能力作了合理的分析。  相似文献   

用C#.Net实现软件系统的动态更新     

刘才铭  李旭伟  朱宏  张雁 《成都信息工程学院学报》2005,20(3):313-318

为了便于大型软件系统的后续开发和用户软件系统的升级，介绍了软件系统在Internet/Intranet上更新功能或数据的原理和方法，并用C#．Net进行了编程实现。  相似文献   

Geochemical survey of thermal system in Northeast China and their geothermometric characters     

MohammedHazaea HUKe MohammedMattash CHENBing M.O.AI-JabaliAref MohammedAbdussalam 《东北亚地学研究》2004,7(2):181-184

The chemical composition of several thermal springs around Changbaishan area has been investigated. Cenozoic basaltic rocks are widely distributed in Northeast China and geothermal characteristics have been described. About one hundred hot springs exist around Changhaishan Volcano at the border between China and D.P.R.Korea with high temperature about 82~C. The pH values of the spring water range from 6.9 to 7.1 and the total flow rate is about 4.8 L/sec. The chemical composition of the thermal springs is sodium carbonate; the high-mineral contents of thermal water are believed to have medicinal properties. Bathhouses are already built along the hot springs to take the advantage of the supposed healing properties. The high quality of those hot springs is believed to be utilitized for mineral water. The chemical equilibrium temperatures were estimated at about 160℃ based on the Na-K-Ca geochemical thermometer.  相似文献