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This paper presents an introductory overview of recently developed stochastic theories for tackling spatial variability problems in predicting groundwater flow and solute transport. Advantages and limitations of the theories are discussed. Lastly, strategies based on the stochastic approaches to predict solute transport in aquifers are recommended.  相似文献   
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A discrete element modelling of bonded granulates and investigation on the bond effect on their behaviour are very important to geomechanics. This paper presents a two‐dimensional (2‐D) discrete element theory for bonded granulates with bond rolling resistance and provides a numerical investigation into the effect of bond rolling resistance on the yielding of bonded granulates. The model consists of mechanical contact models and equations governing the motion of bonded particles. The key point of the theory is that the assumption in the original bond contact model previously proposed by the authors (55th CSCE‐ASCE Conference, Hamilton, Ont., Canada, 2002; 313–320; J. Eng. Mech. (ASCE) 2005; 131 (11):1209–1213) that bonded particles are in contact at discrete points, is here replaced by a more reliable assumption that bonded particles are in contact over a width. By making the idealization that the bond contact width is continuously distributed with the normal/tangential basic elements (BE) (each BE is composed of spring, dashpot, bond, slider or divider), we establish a bond rolling contact model together with bond normal/tangential contact models, and also relate the governing equations to local equilibrium. Only one physical parameter β needs to be introduced in the theory in comparison to the original bond discrete element model. The model has been implemented into a 2‐D distinct element method code, NS2D. Using the NS2D, a total of 86 1‐D, constant stress ratio, and biaxial compressions tests have been carried out on the bonded granular samples of different densities, bonding strengths and rolling resistances. The numerical results show that: (i) the new theory predicts a larger internal friction angle, a larger yielding stress, more brittle behaviour and larger final broken contact ratio than the original bond model; (ii) the yielding stress increases nonlinearly with the increasing value of β, and (iii) the first‐yield curve (initiation of bond breakage), which define a zone of none bond breakage and which shape and size are affected by the material density, is amplified by the bond rolling resistance in analogous to that predicted by the original bond model. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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A lacustrine carbonate sequence from Hawes Water, Lancashire, UK, has been studied using stable isotopic, lithological, pollen and mineral magnetic analysis. The data reveal four abrupt climatic oscillations in the Late‐glacial Interstadial leading up to the onset of the Loch Lomond Stadial. The data also point to climatic warming relatively early within the stadial, ca. 12 500 GRIP yr, prior to the onset of the Holocene. The oxygen isotope record is taken as a signature of climate forcing against which the response of the lake‐system can be monitored. By adopting this approach it is revealed that the response of the biological system to the rapid climatic oscillations is non‐linear and primarily a function of the antecedent conditions. A significant end‐Devensian isotopic excursion (A) is matched by only minor changes in the cold‐adapted floras and faunas. During the warmer interstadial, the response of the biological ecosystem (events B–D) is clearly influenced by thresholds: major changes in the catchment vegetation associated with relatively minor oscillations in the isotopic signature. The stratigraphical patterns reveal significant lag effects between the onset of climate deterioration and resulting changes in vegetation. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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Thirty borehole temperature–depth profiles in the central and southern Urals, Russia were scrutinized for evidence of ground surface temperature histories. We explored two inversion schemes: a simple ramp inversion in which solutions are parameterized in terms of an onset time and magnitude of change and a more sophisticated functional space inverse algorithm in which the functional form of the solution is left unspecified. To enhance and potentially identify latitudinal differences in the ground surface temperature signal, we subdivided the data into three groups based on geographic proximity and simultaneously inverted the borehole temperature–depth logs. The simultaneous inversions highlighted 13 temperature–depth logs that could not both fit a common ground surface temperature history and a priori models within reasonable bounds. Our results confirm that this is an effective way to reduce site-specific noise from an ensemble of boreholes. Each inversion scheme gives comparable results indicating locally variable warming on the order of 1°C starting between 1800 and 1900 AD. Similarly surface air temperature records from 12 nearby meteorological stations exhibit locally variable warming also on the order of 1°C of warming during the 20th century. To explore the degree to which borehole temperatures and surface air temperature (SAT) time series are responding to the same signal, we average the SAT data into the same three groups and used these averages as a forcing function at the Earth's surface to generate synthetic transient temperature profiles. Root mean square (RMS) misfits between these synthetic temperature profiles and averaged temperature–depth profiles are low, suggesting that first-order curvature in borehole temperatures and variations in SAT records are correlated.  相似文献   
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 Satellite data offer a means of supplementing ground-based monitoring during volcanic eruptions, especially at times or locations where ground-based monitoring is difficult. Being directly and freely available several times a day, data from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) offers great potential for near real-time monitoring of all volcanoes across large (3000×3000 km) areas. Herein we describe techniques to detect and locate activity; estimate lava area, thermal flux, effusion rates and cumulative volume; and distinguish types of activity. Application is demonstrated using data for active lavas at Krafla, Etna, Fogo, Cerro Negro and Erebus; a pyroclastic flow at Lascar; and open vent systems at Etna and Stromboli. Automated near real-time analysis of AVHRR data could be achieved at existing, or cheap to install, receiving stations, offering a supplement to conventional monitoring methods. Received: 21 January 1997 / Accepted: 3 April 1997  相似文献   
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The height of the lower red border of type-B aurora has been determined by triangulation using TV cameras at two ground stations. A mean height of 91.4 ± 1.1 km was determined from a set of 12 measurements made under ideal conditions. A TV spectrograph was used simultaneously to seek possible spectral changes between 6400 and 6900 Å which would be indicative of changes in the vibrational distribution in the N2 First Positive bands. No significant difference was found in this distribution between the spectra from 93 and 122 km. The height distribution of contributions to the OI 5577 Å emission relative to the N+2 First Negative emission was modelled from 80 to 160 km. Contributions from electron impact on atomic O, O+2 dissociative recombination and N2(A)O energy transfer were included. Account was taken of recent laboratory data on O(1S) quenching. It was concluded that these processes could explain the excitation of O(1S) in normal aurora and the height distribution of OI 5577 Å in type-B red aurora. It was confirmed that the lifetime ofO(1S) in type-B red auroral rapid time variations is about 0.5 s and it was found from the model that the observed time variation can be reproduced by the mechanisms considered, provided the concentration of NO in the auroral atmosphere is about 1 × 109 at 95 km. Before reasonable certainty can be attained in the correctness of the interpretation it will however be necessary to have reliable simultaneous observations of neutral atmospheric composition particularly for O and NO as well as unchallengeable measurements of the yields of O(1S) for the processes considered and for several other processes which have been suggested recently.  相似文献   
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