基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测     

李建新  刘小生  肖钢  周文  刘仁志 《大地测量与地球动力学》2020,40(6):577-580

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。  相似文献   

对青藏东北缘现今块体划分、运动及变形的初步研究   总被引：19，自引：9，他引：10  

张晓亮  江在森  陈兵  李辉 《大地测量与地球动力学》2002,22(1):63-67

利用2维非连续变形分析方法（DDA），以位移代替围压作为边界约束力，研究青藏东北缘现今块体划分及其运动变形。根据该地区地质构造及地震活动，以GPS点测量位移作为模拟结果约束点，得出了较合理的块体划分模型和随时间演化的主应变分布图，并把应变高值区与近几年来发生的5级以上地震作对比，得出了研究区内地震危险性可能较大的区域。另外，对模拟的甘青块体与阿拉善块体的边缘带断裂左旋运动做了大概计算。  相似文献   

Revisiting Sustainable Development of Dry Valleys in Hengduan Mountains Region   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  

TANGYa XIEJiasui SUNHui 《山地科学学报》2004,1(1):38-45

Dry valleys are a striking geographic landscape in Hengduan Mountains Region and are characterized by low rainfall, desert type of vegetation and fragile environment. Past efforts and resources have been concentrated mainly on rehabilitation of degraded ecosystem and fragile environment, particularly reforestation, while socio-economic development has been largely overlooked. Despite successes in pocket areas, the overall trend of unsustainability and environmental deterioration are continuing. It is important to understand that uplift of the Tibetan Plateau is the root cause of development of dry valleys, and development and formation of dry valleys is a natural process. Human intervention has played a secondary role in development of dry valleys and degradation of dry valleys though human intervention in many cases has speeded up environmental degradation of the dry valleys. It is important to understand that dry valleys are climatic enclaves and an integrated approach that combines rehabilitation of degraded ecosystems and socio-economic development should be adopted if the overall goal of sustainable development of dry valleys is to be achieved. Promotion of niche-based cash crops, rural energy including hydropower, solar energy, biogas and fuelwood plantation is recommended as the priority activities.  相似文献   

CPLD技术及其在现代时统中的应用     

杨蕾  胡永辉 《时间频率学报》2003,26(1):40-47

对CPLD(复杂可编程逻辑器件)技术的基本特征和发展趋势作了简要介绍,揭示了该技术在现代数字系统中的重要地位及作用.利用CPLD对时统设备IRIG-B码产生器进行集成,其实验结果表明,集成了的B码产生器不但简单、可靠,而且便于调试,克服了以往硬件电路复杂的缺点.  相似文献   

Effect of spatial variation characteristics on contouring of design storm depth     

Ke‐Sheng Cheng  Chiang Wei  Yen‐Ben Cheng  Hui‐Chung Yeh 《水文研究》2003,17(9):1755-1769

The ordinary kriging method, a geostatistical interpolation technique, was applied for developing contour maps of design storm depth in northern Taiwan using intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) data. Results of variogram modelling on design storm depths indicate that the design storms can be categorized into two distinct storm types: (i) storms of short duration and high spatial variation and (ii) storms of long duration and less spatial variation. For storms of the first category, the influence range of rainfall depth decreases when the recurrence interval increases, owing to the increasing degree of their spatial independence. However, for storms of the second category, the influence range of rainfall depth does not change significantly and has an average of approximately 72 km. For very extreme events, such as events of short duration and long recurrence interval, we do not recommend usage of the established design storm contours, because most of the interstation distances exceed the influence ranges. Our study concludes that the influence range of the design storm depth is dependent on the design duration and recurrence interval and is a key factor in developing design storm contours. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Is Pre-Eruptive Null Point Reconnection Required for Triggering Eruptions?     

Hui Li  Brigitte Schmieder  Guillaume Aulanier  Arkadiusz Berlicki 《Solar physics》2006,237(1):85-100

We study the magnetic field evolution and topology of the active region NOAA 10486 before the 3B/X1.2 flare of October 26, 2003, using observational data from the French–Italian THEMIS telescope, the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) onboard Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), the Solar Magnetic Field Telescope (SMFT) at Huairou Solar Observation Station (HSOS), and the Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE). Three dimensional (3D) extrapolation of photospheric magnetic field, assuming a potential field configuration, reveals the existence of two magnetic null points in the corona above the active region. We look at their role in the triggering of the main flare, by using the bright patches observed in TRACE 1600 Å images as tracers at the solar surface of energy release associated with magnetic reconnection at the null points. All the bright patches observed before the flare correspond to the low-altitude null point. They have no direct relationship with the X1.2 flare because the related separatrix is located far from the eruptive site. No bright patch corresponds to the high-altitude null point before the flare. We conclude that eruptions can be triggered without pre-eruptive coronal null point reconnection, and the presence of null points is not a sufficient condition for the occurrence of flares. We propose that this eruptive flare results from the loss of equilibrium due to persistent flux emergence, continuous photospheric motion and strong shear along the magnetic neutral line. The opening of the coronal field lines above the active region should be a byproduct of the large 3B/X1.2 flare rather than its trigger.  相似文献   

丽江高美古台址和2m级望远镜项目(英文)     

陈东  王建成  许骏  罗国权  谭徽松  刘忠  张柏荣 《天文研究与技术》2003,(Z1)

自 1992年起云南天文台开始了在云南省西北部的天文选址。丽江高美古最终被选择作为未来中国地基天文光学观测的新址点。并且 ,在国家科技部 ,云南省政府 ,以及中科院的支持下 ,2m级天文望远镜项目在 2 0 0 0年 12月获得立项。在文中 ,我们简要的介绍了高美古台址的情况 ,并给出了 2 .4m望远镜的详细情况 ,以及其他相关情况。  相似文献   

INVERSE DDA OF A SYSTEM OF BLOCKS IN SPHERE COORDINATES     

Wu Yun  Wang Hui  Zhou Shuoyu  Shi Shunying 《大地测量与地球动力学》2003,23(Z1)

1　IntroductionDiscontinuousDeformationAnalysis(DDA)developedbyShiin 1 980’s[1 ,2 ] maybeusedtocalculatethedeformationanddisplacementsinamulti blocksystemandtoanalyzetherelationbe tweenforcesanddisplacementsinthesystem .Ifthesurveydisplacementofeverypointordirectionisknown,alldisplacementsanddeformationsofblocks,eventheglide ,theclosureandthestretchoftheboundary planeofblocks ,canbecalculated .TheresultisoptimallyfittedaccordingtotheLeastSquarePrinciple.DDAismainlyusedinrockblockssystems…  相似文献   

太阳表面米粒结构观测对比度分析     

饶长辉  姜文汉  凌宁 《天文学报》2001,42(2):134-139

分析以观测系统焦面上和探测器测到的太阳表面米粒结构的对比度与观测系统口径，大气湍流相干长度以及系统探测灵敏度的关系，给出了不同口径，不同大气湍流相干长度以及不同系统探测灵敏度时的米粒结构对比值计算结果，此外还给出了实验结果。  相似文献   

介质横向不均匀对震后地表位移场的影响     

朱桂芝  王庆良  李辉  唐文 《大地测量与地球动力学》2003,23(4):54-59

利用三维有限元模拟两层地球模型(包括弹性层和粘弹性层)介质的横向不均匀和断层错动的复杂性对震后地表位移场的影响，其数值结果包括弹性解和粘弹性解。结果表明，震后位移场的分布特征不仅与粘弹性层的流变特性有关，还与弹性层介质的剪切模量以及断层的同震错动有关。  相似文献