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Takeshi Kuramochi Jusen Asuka Hanna Fekete Kentaro Tamura Niklas Höhne 《Climate Policy》2016,16(8):1029-1047
This article assesses Japan's carbon budgets up to 2100 in the global efforts to achieve the 2?°C target under different effort-sharing approaches based on long-term GHG mitigation scenarios published in 13 studies. The article also presents exemplary emission trajectories for Japan to stay within the calculated budget.The literature data allow for an in-depth analysis of four effort-sharing categories. For a 450?ppm CO2e stabilization level, the remaining carbon budgets for 2014–2100 were negative for the effort-sharing category that emphasizes historical responsibility and capability. For the other three, including the reference ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, which showed the highest budget range among all categories, the calculated remaining budgets (20th and 80th percentile ranges) would run out in 21–29 years if the current emission levels were to continue. A 550?ppm CO2e stabilization level increases the budgets by 6–17 years-equivalent of the current emissions, depending on the effort-sharing category. Exemplary emissions trajectories staying within the calculated budgets were also analysed for ‘Equality’, ‘Staged’ and ‘Cost-effectiveness’ categories. For a 450?ppm CO2e stabilization level, Japan's GHG emissions would need to phase out sometime between 2045 and 2080, and the emission reductions in 2030 would be at least 16–29% below 1990 levels even for the most lenient ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, and 29–36% for the ‘Equality’ category. The start year for accelerated emissions reductions and the emissions convergence level in the long term have major impact on the emissions reduction rates that need to be achieved, particularly in the case of smaller budgets.Policy relevanceIn previous climate mitigation target formulation processes for 2020 and 2030 in Japan, neither equity principles nor long-term management of cumulative GHG emissions was at the centre of discussion. This article quantitatively assesses how much more GHGs Japan can emit by 2100 to achieve the 2?°C target in light of different effort-sharing approaches, and how Japan's GHG emissions can be managed up to 2100. The long-term implications of recent energy policy developments following the Fukushima nuclear disaster for the calculated carbon budgets are also discussed. 相似文献
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The 2011 Japanese earthquake and tsunami, and the consequent accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant, have had consequences far beyond Japan itself. Reactions to the accident in three major economies Japan, the UK, and Germany, all of whom were committed to relatively ambitious climate change targets prior to the accident are examined. In Japan and Germany, the accident precipitated a major change of policy direction. In the UK, debate has been muted and there has been essentially no change in energy or climate change policies. The status of the energy and climate change policies in each country prior to the accident is assessed, the responses to the accident are described, and the possible impacts on their positions in the international climate negotiations are analysed. Finally, the three countries' responses are compared and some differences between them observed. Some reasons for their different policy responses are suggested and some themes, common across all countries, are identified Policy relevance The attraction of nuclear power has rested on the promise of low-cost electricity, low-carbon energy supply, and enhanced energy independence. The Fukushima accident, which followed the Japanese tsunami of March 2011, has prompted a critical re-appraisal of nuclear power. The responses to Fukushima are assessed for the UK, Germany, and Japan. Before the accident, all three countries considered nuclear as playing a significant part in climate mitigation strategies. Although the UK Government has continued to support nuclear new build following a prompt review of safety arrangements, Japan and Germany have decided to phase out nuclear power, albeit according to different timescales. The factors that explain the different decisions are examined, including patterns of energy demand and supply, the wider political context, institutional arrangements, and public attitudes to risk. The implications for the international climate negotiations are also assessed. 相似文献
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This study evaluates the performance of a regional climate model in simulating two types of synoptic tropical weather disturbances: convectively-coupled Kelvin and easterly waves. Interest in these two wave modes stems from their potential predictability out to several weeks in advance, as well as a strong observed linkage between easterly waves and tropical cyclogenesis. The model is a recent version of the weather research and forecast (WRF) system with 36-km horizontal grid spacing and convection parameterized using a scheme that accounts for key convective triggering and inhibition processes. The domain spans the entire tropical belt between 45°S and 45°N with periodic boundary conditions in the east–west direction, and conditions at the meridional/lower boundaries specified based on observations. The simulation covers 6 years from 2000 to 2005, which is long enough to establish a statistical depiction of the waves through space-time spectral filtering of rainfall data, together with simple lagged-linear regression. Results show that both the horizontal phase speeds and three-dimensional structures of the waves are qualitatively well captured by the model in comparison to observations. However, significant biases in wave activity are seen, with generally overactive easterly waves and underactive Kelvin waves. Evidence is presented to suggest that these biases in wave activity (which are also correlated with biases in time–mean rainfall, as well as biases in the model’s tropical cyclone climatology) stem in part from convection in the model coupling too strongly to rotational circulation anomalies. Nevertheless, the model is seen to do a reasonable job at capturing the genesis of tropical cyclones from easterly waves, with evidence for both wave accumulation and critical layer processes being importantly involved. 相似文献
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Gaku Kimura Yujin Kitamura Asuka Yamaguchi Jun Kameda Yoshitaka Hashimoto Mari Hamahashi 《Island Arc》2019,28(5)
The belt boundary thrust within the Cretaceous–Neogene accretionary complex of the Shimanto Belt, southwestern Japan, extends for more than ~ 1 000 km along the Japanese islands. A common understanding of the origin of the thrust is that it is an out of sequence thrust as a result of continuous accretion since the late Cretaceous and there is a kinematic reason for its maintaining a critically tapered wedge. The timing of the accretion gap and thrusting, however, coincides with the collision of the Paleocene–early Eocene Izanagi–Pacific spreading ridges with the trench along the western Pacific margin, which has been recently re‐hypothesized as younger than the previous assumption with respect to the Kula‐Pacific ridge subduction during the late Cretaceous. The ridge subduction hypothesis provides a consistent explanation for the cessation of magmatic activity along the continental margin and the presence of an unconformity in the forearc basin. This is not only the case in southwestern Japan, but also along the more northern Asian margin in Hokkaido, Sakhalin, and Sikhote‐Alin. This Paleocene–early Eocene ridge subduction hypothesis is also consistent with recently acquired tomographic images beneath the Asian continent. The timing of the Izanagi–Pacific ridge subduction along the western Pacific margin allows for a revision of the classic hypothesis of a great reorganization of the Pacific Plate motion between ~ 47 Ma and 42 Ma, illustrated by the bend in the Hawaii–Emperor chain, because of the change in subduction torque balance and the Oligocene–Miocene back arc spreading after the ridge subduction in the western Pacific margin. 相似文献
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Gaku Kimura Yasuyuki Nakamura Kazuya Shiraishi Gou Fujie Shuichi Kodaira Asuka Yamaguchi Rina Fukuchi Yoshitaka Hashimoto 《Island Arc》2021,30(1):e12402
The Nankai Trough, Japan, is a subduction zone characterized by the recurrence of disastrous earthquakes and tsunamis. Slow earthquakes and associated tremor also occur intermittently and locally in the Nankai Trough and the causal relationship between slow earthquakes and large earthquakes is important to understanding subduction zone dynamics. The Nankai Trough off Muroto, Shikoku Island, near the southeast margin of the rupture segment of the 1946 Nankai earthquake, is one of three regions where slow earthquakes and tremor cluster in the Nankai Trough. On the Philippine Sea plate, the rifting of the central domain of the Shikoku Basin was aborted at ~15 Ma and underthrust the Nankai forearc off Muroto. Here, the Tosa-Bae seamount and other high-relief features, which are northern extension of the Kinan Seamount chain, have collided with and indented the forearc wedge. In this study, we analyzed seismic reflection profiles around the deformation front of accretionary wedge and stratigraphically correlated them to drilling sites off Muroto. Our results show that the previously aborted horst-and-graben structures, which were formed around the spreading center of the Shikoku Basin at ~15 Ma, were rejuvenated locally at ~6 Ma and more regionally at ~3.3 Ma and have remained active since. The reactivated normal faulting has enhanced seafloor roughness and appears to affect the locations of slow earthquakes and tremors. Rejuvenated normal faulting is not limited to areas near the Nankai Trough, and extends more than 200 km into the Shikoku Basin to the south. This extension might be due to extensional forces applied to the Philippine Sea plate, which appear to be driven by slab-pull in the Ryukyu and Philippine trenches along the western margin of the Philippine Sea plate. 相似文献
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Abstract International negotiation on the additionality issue of the CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) seems to be proceeding without sufficient information or understanding. Especially apparent is a lack of recognition that the non-additional CERs (certified emission reductions) generated by relaxing the additionality criteria may lead to economic losses for developing countries. This article quantitatively reconfirms the effects of non-additional CERs on the international community, while clarifying that the generation of non-additional CERs in excess of a certain number will eventually lead to negative consequences for developing countries, even if these countries were able to acquire all the non-additional CERs. Furthermore, the Discussion section demonstrates that future system design would significantly affect the benefits of developing countries as well as the overall environmental integrity of the Kyoto mechanisms. 相似文献
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Susan P Proctor Sucharita Gopal Asuka Imai Jessica Wolfe David Ozonoff Roberta F White 《Transactions in GIS》2005,9(3):381-396
Spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to identify spatial patterns of 1991 Gulf War (GW) troop locations in relationship to subsequent postwar diagnosis of chronic multisymptom illness (CMI). Criteria for the diagnosis of CMI include reporting from at least two of three symptom clusters: fatigue, musculoskeletal pain, and mood and cognition. A GIS‐based methodology was used to examine associations between potential hazardous exposures or deployment situations and postwar health outcomes using troop location data as a surrogate. GW veterans from the Devens Cohort Study were queried about specific symptoms approximately four years after the 1991 deployment to the Persian Gulf. Global and local statistics were calculated using the Moran's I and G statistics for six selected date periods chosen a priori to mark important GW‐service events or exposure scenarios among 173 members of the cohort. Global Moran's I statistics did not detect global spatial patterns at any of the six specified data periods, thus, indicating there is no significant spatial autocorrelation of locations over the entire Gulf region for veterans meeting criteria for severe postwar CMI. However, when applying local G* and local Moran's I statistics, significant spatial clusters (primarily in the coastal Dammam/Dharhan and the central inland areas of Saudi Arabia) were identified for several of the selected time periods. Further study using GIS techniques, coupled with epidemiological methods, to examine spatial and temporal patterns with larger sample sizes of GW veterans is warranted to ascertain if the observed spatial patterns can be confirmed. 相似文献
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Acoustic properties of deformed rocks in the Nobeoka thrust,in the Shimanto Belt,Kyushu, Southwest Japan 
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下载免费PDF全文 Yoshitaka Hashimoto Shogo Abe Hiroki Tano Gaku Kimura Asuka Yamaguchi Rina Fukuchi Jun Kameda Yohei Hamada Yujin Kitamura Koichiro Fujimoto Mio Eida 《Island Arc》2017,26(4)
Laboratory measurements for compressional and shear wave velocities (Vp and Vs, respectively) and porosity were conducted with core samples from the Nobeoka Thrust Drilling Project (NOBELL) under controlled effective pressure (5–65 MPa at 5 MPa intervals) and wet conditions. Samples were classified according to deformation texture as phyllite, foliated cataclasite, or non‐foliated cataclasite. Measured values of Vp, Vs, and porosity are within a range of 5.17–5.57 km/s, 2.60–2.71 km/s, and 2.75–3.10 %, respectively, for phyllite; 4.89–5.23 km/s, 2.46–2.57 km/s, and 3.58–4.53 %, respectively, for foliated cataclasite; and 4.90–5.32 km/s, 2.51–2.63 km/s, and 3.79–4.60 %, respectively, for non‐foliated cataclasite, which are all consistent with the previous laboratory experiments conducted with outcrop samples under dry conditions. However, our results also indicate higher Vp and Vs and lower porosity than those measured by the previous studies that adopted the wire‐line logging methods. The variations in Vp, Vs, and porosity are controlled by deformation structure and are greater for phyllite and foliated cataclasite than for non‐foliated cataclasite. 相似文献
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