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1.
Aiguo Dai W. M. Washington G. A. Meehl T. W. Bettge W. G. Strand 《Climatic change》2004,62(1-3):29-43
The Parallel Climate Model (PCM) has been used in the Accelerated ClimatePrediction Initiative (ACPI) Program to simulate the global climateresponse to projected CO2, sulfate, and other greenhouse gasforcingunder a business-as-usual emissions scenario during the 21st century. In these runs, the oceans were initialized to 1995 conditions by a group from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and other institutions. An ensemble of three model runs was then carried out to the year 2099 using the projected forcing. Atmospheric data fromthese runs were saved at 6-hourly intervals (hourly for certain criticalfields) to support the ACPI objective of accurately modeling hydrologicalcycles over the western U.S. It is shown that the initialization to1995 conditions partly removes the un-forced oceanic temperature and salinity drifts that occurred in the standard 20th century integration. The ACPI runs show a global surface temperature increase of 3–8 °C over northern high-latitudes by the end of the 21st century, and 1–2 °C over the oceans. This is generally within ±0.1°Cof model runs without the 1995 ocean initialization. The exception is in theAntarctic circumpolar ocean where surface air temperature is cooler in theACPI run; however the ensemble scatter is large in this region. Althoughthe difference in climate at the end of the 21st century is minimalbetween the ACPI runs and traditionally spun up runs, it might be largerfor CGCMs with higher climate sensitivity or larger ocean drifts. Ourresults suggest that the effect of small errors in the oceans (such asthose associated with climate drifts) on CGCM-simulated climate changesfor the next 50–100 years may be negligible. 相似文献
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3.
Results are presented from two versions of a global R15 atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) coupled to a nondynamic, 50-m deep, slab ocean. Both versions include a penetrative convection scheme that has the effect of pumping more moisture higher into the troposphere. One also includes a simple prescribed functional dependence of cloud albedo in areas of high sea-surface temperature (SST) and deep convection. Previous analysis of observations has shown that in regions of high SST and deep convection, the upper-level cloud albedos increase as a result of the greater optical depth associated with increased moisture content. Based on these observations, we prescribe increased middle- and upper-level cloud albedos in regions of SST greater than 303 K where deep convection occurs. This crudely accounts for a type of cloud optical property feedback, but is well short of a computed cloud-optical property scheme. Since great uncertainty accompanies the formulation and tuning of such schemes, the prescribed albedo feedback is an intermediate step to examine basic feedbacks and sensitivities. We compare the two model versions (with earlier results from the same model with convective adjustment) to a model from the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) having convective adjustment and a computed cloud optical properties feedback scheme and to several other GCMs. The addition of penetrative convection increases tropospheric moisture, cloud amount, and planetary albedo and decreases net solar input at the surface. However, the competing effect of increased downward infrared flux (from increased tropospheric moisture) causes a warmer surface and increased latent heat flux. Adding the prescribed cirrus albedo feedback decreases net solar input at the surface in the tropics, since the cloud albedos increase in regions of high SST and deep convection. Downward infrared radiation (from increased moisture) also increases, but this effect is overpowered by the reduced solar input in the tropics. Therefore, the surface is somewhat cooler in the tropics, latent heat flux decreases, and global average sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 with regard to temperature and precipitation/evaporation feedback is reduced. Similar processes, evident in the CCC model with convective adjustment and a computed cloud optical properties feedback scheme, occur over a somewhat expanded latitudinal range. The addition of penetrative convection produces global effects, as does the prescribed cirrus albedo feedback, although the strongest local effects of the latter occur in the tropics.Portions of this study are supported by the Office of Health and Environmental Research of the U.S. Department of Energy as part of its Carbon Dioxide Research Program, and by the Electric Power Research Institute as part of its Model Evaluation Consortium for Climate Assessment ProjectThe National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation 相似文献
4.
L. Goddard A. Kumar A. Solomon D. Smith G. Boer P. Gonzalez V. Kharin W. Merryfield C. Deser S. J. Mason B. P. Kirtman R. Msadek R. Sutton E. Hawkins T. Fricker G. Hegerl C. A. T. Ferro D. B. Stephenson G. A. Meehl T. Stockdale R. Burgman A. M. Greene Y. Kushnir M. Newman J. Carton I. Fukumori T. Delworth 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(1-2):245-272
Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty. 相似文献
5.
Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Weiqing Han Gerald A. Meehl Detlef Stammer Aixue Hu Benjamin Hamlington Jessica Kenigson Hindumathi Palanisamy Philip Thompson 《Surveys in Geophysics》2017,38(1):217-250
Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth’s climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR. 相似文献
6.
A change in a sea-ice parameter in a global coupled climate model results in a reduction in amplitude (of about 60%) and
a shortening of the predominant period of decadal low frequency variability in the time series of globally averaged surface
air temperature. These changes are global in extent and also are reflected in time series of area-averaged SSTs in the equatorial
eastern Pacific Ocean, the principal components of the first EOFs of global surface air temperature and sea level pressure,
Asian monsoon precipitations and other quantities. Coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice processes acting on a global scale are
modified to produce these changes. Global climate sensitivity is reduced when ice albedo feedback is weakened due to the change
in sea ice that makes it more difficult to melt. The changes in the amplitude and time scale of the low frequency variability
in the model are traced to changes in the base state of the climate simulations as affected by modifications associated with
the changes in sea ice. Making sea ice more difficult to melt results in increased sea-ice area, colder high latitudes, increased
meridional surface temperature gradients, and, to a first order, stronger surface winds in most regions which strengthen near-surface
currents, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, and decreases the advection time scale in the upper ocean gyres. Additionally,
in the North Atlantic there is enhanced meridional overturning due to increased density mainly in the Greenland Sea region.
This also contributes to an intensified North Atlantic gyre. The changes in base state due to the sea ice change result in
a more predominant decadal time scale of near 14 years and significantly reduced contributions from lower frequencies in the
range of 15–40 year periods.
Received: 11 December 1998 / Accepted: 4 October 1999 相似文献
7.
C. Covey A. Abe-Ouchi G. J. Boer B. A. Boville U. Cubasch L. Fairhead G. M. Flato H. Gordon E. Guilyardi X. Jiang T. C. Johns H. Le Treut G. Madec G. A. Meehl R. Miller A. Noda S. B. Power E. Roeckner G. Russell E. K. Schneider R. J. Stouffer L. Terray J.-S. von Storch 《Climate Dynamics》2000,16(10-11):775-787
We examine the seasonal cycle of near-surface air temperature simulated by 17 coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Nine of the models use ad hoc “flux adjustment” at the ocean surface to bring model simulations close to observations of the present-day climate. We group flux-adjusted and non-flux-adjusted models separately and examine the behavior of each class. When averaged over all of the flux-adjusted model simulations, near-surface air temperature falls within 2?K of observed values over the oceans. The corresponding average over non-flux-adjusted models shows errors up to ～6?K in extensive ocean areas. Flux adjustments are not directly applied over land, and near-surface land temperature errors are substantial in the average over flux-adjusted models, which systematically underestimates (by ～5?K) temperature in areas of elevated terrain. The corresponding average over non-flux-adjusted models forms a similar error pattern (with somewhat increased amplitude) over land. We use the temperature difference between July and January to measure seasonal cycle amplitude. Zonal means of this quantity from the individual flux-adjusted models form a fairly tight cluster (all within ～30% of the mean) centered on the observed values. The non-flux-adjusted models perform nearly as well at most latitudes. In Southern Ocean mid-latitudes, however, the non-flux-adjusted models overestimate the magnitude of January-minus-July temperature differences by ～5?K due to an overestimate of summer (January) near-surface temperature. This error is common to five of the eight non-flux-adjusted models. Also, over Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude land areas, zonal mean differences between July and January temperatures simulated by the non-flux-adjusted models show a greater spread (positive and negative) about observed values than results from the flux-adjusted models. Elsewhere, differences between the two classes of models are less obvious. At no latitude is the zonal mean difference between averages over the two classes of models greater than the standard deviation over models. The ability of coupled GCMs to simulate a reasonable seasonal cycle is a necessary condition for confidence in their prediction of long-term climatic changes (such as global warming), but it is not a sufficient condition unless the seasonal cycle and long-term changes involve similar climatic processes. To test this possible connection, we compare seasonal cycle amplitude with equilibrium warming under doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide for the models in our data base. A small but positive correlation exists between these two quantities. This result is predicted by a simple conceptual model of the climate system, and it is consistent with other modeling experience, which indicates that the seasonal cycle depends only weakly on climate sensitivity. 相似文献
8.
Tropical air-sea interaction in general circulation models 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
9.
Climatology and interannual variations of wintertime extratropical cyclone frequency in CCSM3 twentieth century simulation
are compared with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis during 1950–1999. CCSM3 can simulate the storm tracks reasonably well, although
the model produces slightly less cyclones at the beginning of the Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks and weaker poleward deflection
over the Pacific. As in the reanalysis, frequency of cyclones stronger than 980 hPa shows significant correlation with the
Pacific/North America (PNA) teleconnection pattern over the Pacific region and with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in
the Atlantic sector. Composite maps are constructed for opposite phases of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the NAO
and all anomalous patterns coincide with observed. One CCSM3 twenty-first century A1B scenario realization indicates there
is significant increase in the extratropical cyclone frequency on the US west coast and decrease in Alaska. Meanwhile, cyclone
frequency increases from the Great Lakes region to Quebec and decreases over the US east coast, suggesting a possible northward
shift of the Atlantic storm tracks under the warmer climate. The cyclone frequency anomalies are closely linked to changes
in seasonal mean states of the upper-troposphere zonal wind and baroclinicity in the lower troposphere. Due to lack of 6-hourly
outputs, we cannot apply the cyclone-tracking algorithm to the other eight CCSM3 realizations. Based on the linkage between
the mean state change and the cyclone frequency anomalies, it is likely a common feature among the other ensemble members
that cyclone activity is reduced on the East Coast and in Alaska as a result of global warming. 相似文献
10.
G. A. Meehl P. R. Gent J. M. Arblaster B. L. Otto-Bliesner E. C. Brady A. Craig 《Climate Dynamics》2001,17(7):515-526
Historically, El Nino-like events simulated in global coupled climate models have had reduced amplitude compared to observations.
Here, El Nino-like phenomena are compared in ten sensitivity experiments using two recent global coupled models. These models
have various combinations of horizontal and vertical ocean resolution, ocean physics, and atmospheric model resolution. It
is demonstrated that the lower the value of the ocean background vertical diffusivity, the greater the amplitude of El Nino
variability which is related primarily to a sharper equatorial thermocline. Among models with low background vertical diffusivity,
stronger equatorial zonal wind stress is associated with relatively higher amplitude El Nino variability along with more realistic
east–west sea surface temperature (SST) gradient along the equator. The SST seasonal cycle in the eastern tropical Pacific
has too much of a semiannual component with a double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in all experiments, and thus does
not affect, nor is it affected by, the amplitude of El Nino variability. Systematic errors affecting the spatial variability
of El Nino in the experiments are characterized by the eastern equatorial Pacific cold tongue regime extending too far westward
into the warm pool. The time scales of interannual variability (as represented by time series of Nino3 SSTs) show significant
power in the 3–4 year ENSO band and 2–2.5 year tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) band in the model experiments. The
TBO periods in the models agree well with the observations, while the ENSO periods are near the short end of the range of
3–6 years observed during the period 1950–94. The close association between interannual variability of equatorial eastern
Pacific SSTs and large-scale SST patterns is represented by significant correlations between Nino3 time series and the PC
time series of the first EOFs of near-global SSTs in the models and observations.
Received: 17 April 2000 / Accepted: 17 August 2000 相似文献