Risk assessment of agricultural water requirement based on a multi-model ensemble framework,southwest of Iran     

Zamani  Reza  Akhond-Ali  Ali-Mohammad  Roozbahani  Abbas  Fattahi  Rouhollah 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,129(3-4):1109-1121

Water shortage and climate change are the most important issues of sustainable agricultural and water resources development. Given the importance of water availability in crop production, the present study focused on risk assessment of climate change impact on agricultural water requirement in southwest of Iran, under two emission scenarios (A2 and B1) for the future period (2025–2054). A multi-model ensemble framework based on mean observed temperature-precipitation (MOTP) method and a combined probabilistic approach Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG) and change factor (CF) have been used for downscaling to manage the uncertainty of outputs of 14 general circulation models (GCMs). The results showed an increasing temperature in all months and irregular changes of precipitation (either increasing or decreasing) in the future period. In addition, the results of the calculated annual net water requirement for all crops affected by climate change indicated an increase between 4 and 10 %. Furthermore, an increasing process is also expected regarding to the required water demand volume. The most and the least expected increase in the water demand volume is about 13 and 5 % for A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. Considering the results and the limited water resources in the study area, it is crucial to provide water resources planning in order to reduce the negative effects of climate change. Therefore, the adaptation scenarios with the climate change related to crop pattern and water consumption should be taken into account.

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Mechanical trapping of fine particles in a medium of mono‐sized randomly packed spheres     

M. Mahdi Roozbahani  Lori Graham‐Brady  J. David Frost 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2014,38(17):1776-1791

Mechanical trapping (or straining) of fine particles is a key mechanism in many filtration systems. For example, the performance of rapid sand filters depends in part on mechanical trapping of larger fine particles, while relying on adsorptive processes to trap very small fine particles and microbes. The ability to trap these particles is directly related to the construction of the packed bed used for filtration in this system. Thus, the ability to model the effect of the inner structure of the packed bed can lead to more efficient design for improved filtration. Because of its significant efficiency, gravitational sphere packing is employed in this work to simulate a bed of mono‐sized randomly packed spheres. The simulated bed provides a way to visualize the pore network and estimate the pore size distribution associated with the void space between particles. Furthermore, by subsequently introducing fine particles into the bed, we evaluate the mass‐rate of fine particles passing through and possibly saturating the packed bed. Results show that fine particles between 15% and 25% of the coarse particle size can be physically strained within the randomly packed bed. These results differ significantly from the results obtained assuming a periodically spaced bed. The technique therefore provides an efficient yet accurate alternative for understanding how fine particles pass through a coarse particulate medium. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Integrated risk assessment of urban water supply systems from source to tap   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Abbas Roozbahani  Banafsheh Zahraie  Massoud Tabesh 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(4):923-944

Urban water supply systems (UWSS) are generally composed of water sources, transmission pipes, treatment plants, and distribution networks from source to tap and usually are exposed to variety of uncertain threatening hazards. These threats can be divided to three main groups of natural, human-made, and operational hazards which affect either water quantity or water quality. In order to evaluate the reliability of water supply systems, risk assessment tools must be used to identify threats, their probability, and consequences and vulnerabilities of each element of these systems against the hazards. Due to the complexity and uncertainties affecting water supply systems and threatening hazards, a comprehensive and effective risk assessment method is required. In this study, an integrated fuzzy hierarchical risk assessment model for water supply systems (IFHRA-WSS) is proposed to assess hazards in a complex UWSS using a systematic approach incorporating both water quantity and quality issues. This model uses a hierarchical framework for breaking down the UWSS infrastructures to their interrelated elements to reduce the overall complexity of the system. It also considers uncertainties using Fuzzy Logic approach. Effects of functional interdependencies between different components of the system have also been considered in the vulnerability analysis. IFHRA-WSS incorporates the contributions of urban water experts in a group risk assessment procedure in a way that they can be easily expressed in terms of the qualitative and quantitative risk measures. Efficiency of this model has been examined in a case study which includes a large part of a drinking water supply system in a major city in Iran. This system includes all the elements of the UWSS from the delivery point to the consumption point. In the case study, different components and subcomponents of this system have been ranked based on their estimated risk values. It is envisaged that the results of the proposed model can help the decision makers to plan for effective risk mitigation measures.  相似文献   

Risk assessment of workers exposed to noise pollution in a textile plant     

M. Mohammadi Roozbahani M.  M.Sc.  P. Nassiri Ph.D.  P. Jafari Shalkouhi M.Sc. 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2009,6(4):591-596

In order to assess the risks associated with worker’s hearing loss, due to exposure to noise pollution, at the Boroujerd Textile Factory a cross sectional study was conducted. 60 workers from the Spinning and Weaving workshops and official staff were randomly selected as case and control groups and their hearing were tested by audiometry. The audiometric results revealed that amongst workers being exposed to the noise pollution in the Spinning and Weaving Workshops there is a distinct increase in the number of cases of hearing loss at high frequencies. There also appears to be a slight bias towards hearing loss in the left ear, in preference to the right in addition, those who have worked for longer than 16 years are subjected to hearing loss even at low frequencies conversely, the office workers (the control group) seem to suffer little or no hearing loss at low frequencies at all, but after approximately 10 years of service there may be some hearing loss, but only at higher frequencies, which could be attributed to presbycusis. Also, the t-test (statistical hypothesis test) results verified the significant difference among both groups at high frequencies. The questionnaire results indicated that workers feel symptoms such as headache, no sense centralization, excitement, nervousness, vertigo. Hence, controlling procedures seem to be essential to protect workers from noise disorders.  相似文献