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In order to determine whether it is desirable to quantify mineral-deposit models further, a test of the ability of a probabilistic
neural network to classify deposits into types based on mineralogy was conducted. Presence or absence of ore and alteration
mineralogy in well-typed deposits were used to train the network. To reduce the number of minerals considered, the analyzed
data were restricted to minerals present in at least 20% of at least one deposit type. An advantage of this restriction is
that single or rare occurrences of minerals did not dominate the results. Probabilistic neural networks can provide mathematically
sound confidence measures based on Bayes theorem and are relatively insensitive to outliers. Founded on Parzen density estimation,
they require no assumptions about distributions of random variables used for classification, even handling multimodal distributions.
They train quickly and work as well as, or better than, multiple-layer feedforward networks. Tests were performed with a probabilistic
neural network employing a Gaussian kernel and separate sigma weights for each class and each variable. The training set was
reduced to the presence or absence of 58 reported minerals in eight deposit types. The training set included: 49 Cyprus massive
sulfide deposits; 200 kuroko massive sulfide deposits; 59 Comstock epithermal vein gold districts; 17 quartzalunite epithermal
gold deposits; 25 Creede epithermal gold deposits; 28 sedimentary-exhalative zinc-lead deposits; 28 Sado epithermal vein gold
deposits; and 100 porphyry copper deposits. The most common training problem was the error of classifying about 27% of Cyprus-type
deposits in the training set as kuroko. In independent tests with deposits not used in the training set, 88% of 224 kuroko
massive sulfide deposits were classed correctly, 92% of 25 porphyry copper deposits, 78% of 9 Comstock epithermal gold-silver
districts, and 83% of six quartzalunite epithermal gold deposits were classed correctly. Across all deposit types, 88% of
deposits in the validation dataset were correctly classed. Misclassifications were most common if a deposit was characterized
by only a few minerals, e.g., pyrite, chalcopyrite,and sphalerite. The success rate jumped to 98% correctly classed deposits
when just two rock types were added. Such a high success rate of the probabilistic neural network suggests that not only should
this preliminary test be expanded to include other deposit types, but that other deposit features should be added 相似文献
2.
Application of a feedforward neural network in the search for Kuroko deposits in the Hokuroku district, Japan 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
A feedforward neural network with one hidden layer and five neurons was trained to recognize the distance to kuroko mineral deposits. Average amounts per hole of pyrite, sericite, and gypsum plus anhydrite as measured by X-rays in 69 drillholes were used to train the net. Drillholes near and between the Fukazawa, Furutobe, and Shakanai mines were used. The training data were selected carefully to represent well-explored areas where some confidence of the distance to ore was assured. A logarithmic transform was applied to remove the skewness of distance and each variable was scaled and centered by subtracting the median and dividing by the interquartile range. The learning algorithm of annealing plus conjugate gradients was used to minimize the mean squared error of the scaled distance to ore. The trained network then was applied to all of the 152 drillholes that had measured gypsum, sericite, and pyrite. A contour plot of the neural net predicted distance to ore shows fairly wide areas of 1 km or less to ore; each of the known deposit groups is within the 1 km contour. The high and low distances on the margins of the contoured distance plot are in part the result of boundary effects of the contouring algorithm. For example, the short distances to ore predicted west of the Shakanai (Hanaoka) deposits are in basement. However, the short distances to ore predicted northeast of Furotobe, just off the figure, coincide with the location of the Nurukawa kuroko deposit and the Omaki deposit, south of the Shakanai-Hanaoka deposits, seems to be on an extension of short distance to ore contour, but is beyond the 3 km limit from drillholes. Also of interest are some areas only a few kilometers from the Fukazawa and Shakanai groups of deposits that are estimated to be many kilometers from ore, apparently reflecting the network's recognition of the extreme local variability of the geology near some deposits. 相似文献
3.
The need to integrate large quantities of digital geoscience information to classify locations as mineral deposits or nondeposits has been met by the weights-of-evidence method in many situations. Widespread selection of this method may be more the result of its ease of use and interpretation rather than comparisons with alternative methods. A comparison of the weights-of-evidence method to probabilistic neural networks is performed here with data from Chisel Lake-Andeson Lake, Manitoba, Canada. Each method is designed to estimate the probability of belonging to learned classes where the estimated probabilities are used to classify the unknowns. Using these data, significantly lower classification error rates were observed for the neural network, not only when test and training data were the same (0.02 versus 23%), but also when validation data, not used in any training, were used to test the efficiency of classification (0.7 versus 17%). Despite these data containing too few deposits, these tests of this set of data demonstrate the neural network's ability at making unbiased probability estimates and lower error rates when measured by number of polygons or by the area of land misclassified. For both methods, independent validation tests are required to ensure that estimates are representative of real-world results. Results from the weights-of-evidence method demonstrate a strong bias where most errors are barren areas misclassified as deposits. The weights-of-evidence method is based on Bayes rule, which requires independent variables in order to make unbiased estimates. The chi-square test for independence indicates no significant correlations among the variables in the Chisel Lake–Andeson Lake data. However, the expected number of deposits test clearly demonstrates that these data violate the independence assumption. Other, independent simulations with three variables show that using variables with correlations of 1.0 can double the expected number of deposits as can correlations of –1.0. Studies done in the 1970s on methods that use Bayes rule show that moderate correlations among attributes seriously affect estimates and even small correlations lead to increases in misclassifications. Adverse effects have been observed with small to moderate correlations when only six to eight variables were used. Consistent evidence of upward biased probability estimates from multivariate methods founded on Bayes rule must be of considerable concern to institutions and governmental agencies where unbiased estimates are required. In addition to increasing the misclassification rate, biased probability estimates make classification into deposit and nondeposit classes an arbitrary subjective decision. The probabilistic neural network has no problem dealing with correlated variables—its performance depends strongly on having a thoroughly representative training set. Probabilistic neural networks or logistic regression should receive serious consideration where unbiased estimates are required. The weights-of-evidence method would serve to estimate thresholds between anomalies and background and for exploratory data analysis. 相似文献
4.
Examining Risk in Mineral Exploration 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Successful mineral exploration strategy requires identification of some of the risk sources and considering them in the decision-making process so that controllable risk can be reduced. Risk is defined as chance of failure or loss. Exploration is an economic activity involving risk and uncertainty, so risk also must be defined in an economic context. Risk reduction can be addressed in three fundamental ways: (1) increasing the number of examinations; (2) increasing success probabilities; and (3) changing success probabilities per test by learning. These provide the framework for examining exploration risk. First, the number of prospects examined is increased, such as by joint venturing, thereby reducing chance of gambler's ruin. Second, success probability is increased by exploring for deposit types more likely to be economic, such as those with a high proportion of world-class deposits. For example, in looking for 100+ ton (>3 million oz) Au deposits, porphyry Cu-Au, or epithermal quartz alunite Au types require examining fewer deposits than Comstock epithermal vein and most other deposit types. For porphyry copper exploration, a strong positive relationship between area of sulfide minerals and deposits' contained Cu can be used to reduce exploration risk by only examining large sulfide systems. In some situations, success probabilities can be increased by examining certain geologic environments. Only 8% of kuroko massive sulfide deposits are world class, but success chances can be increased to about 15% by looking in settings containing sediments and rhyolitic rocks. It is possible to reduce risk of loss during mining by sequentially developing and expanding a mine—thus reducing capital exposed at early stages and reducing present value of risked capital. Because this strategy is easier to apply in some deposit types than in others, the strategy can affect deposit types sought. Third, risk is reduced by using prior information and by changing the independence of trials assumption, that is, by learning. Bayes' formula is used to change the probability of existence of the deposit sought on the basis of successive exploration stages. Perhaps the most important way to reduce exploration risk is to employ personnel with the appropriate experience and yet who are learning. 相似文献
5.
6.
A test of the ability of a probabilistic neural network to classify deposits into types on the basis of deposit tonnage and average Cu, Mo, Ag, Au, Zn, and Pb grades is conducted. The purpose is to examine whether this type of system might serve as a basis for integrating geoscience information available in large mineral databases to classify sites by deposit type. Benefits of proper classification of many sites in large regions are relatively rapid identification of terranes permissive for deposit types and recognition of specific sites perhaps worthy of exploring further.Total tonnages and average grades of 1,137 well-explored deposits identified in published grade and tonnage models representing 13 deposit types were used to train and test the network. Tonnages were transformed by logarithms and grades by square roots to reduce effects of skewness. All values were scaled by subtracting the variable's mean and dividing by its standard deviation. Half of the deposits were selected randomly to be used in training the probabilistic neural network and the other half were used for independent testing. Tests were performed with a probabilistic neural network employing a Gaussian kernel and separate sigma weights for each class (type) and each variable (grade or tonnage).Deposit types were selected to challenge the neural network. For many types, tonnages or average grades are significantly different from other types, but individual deposits may plot in the grade and tonnage space of more than one type. Porphyry Cu, porphyry Cu-Au, and porphyry Cu-Mo types have similar tonnages and relatively small differences in grades. Redbed Cu deposits typically have tonnages that could be confused with porphyry Cu deposits, also contain Cu and, in some situations, Ag. Cyprus and kuroko massive sulfide types have about the same tonnages. Cu, Zn, Ag, and Au grades. Polymetallic vein, sedimentary exhalative Zn-Pb, and Zn-Pb skarn types contain many of the same metals. Sediment-hosted Au, Comstock Au-Ag, and low-sulfide Au-quartz vein types are principally Au deposits with differing amounts of Ag.Given the intent to test the neural network under the most difficult conditions, an overall 75% agreement between the experts and the neural network is considered excellent. Among the largestclassification errors are skarn Zn-Pb and Cyprus massive sulfide deposits classed by the neuralnetwork as kuroko massive sulfides—24 and 63% error respectively. Other large errors are the classification of 92% of porphyry Cu-Mo as porphyry Cu deposits. Most of the larger classification errors involve 25 or fewer training deposits, suggesting that some errors might be the result of small sample size. About 91% of the gold deposit types were classed properly and 98% of porphyry Cu deposits were classes as some type of porphyry Cu deposit. An experienced economic geologist would not make many of the classification errors that were made by the neural network because the geologic settings of deposits would be used to reduce errors. In a separate test, the probabilistic neural network correctly classed 93% of 336 deposits in eight deposit types when trained with presence or absence of 58 minerals and six generalized rock types. The overall success rate of the probabilistic neural network when trained on tonnage and average grades would probably be more than 90% with additional information on the presence of a few rock types. 相似文献
7.
Natural Resources Research - 相似文献
8.
Atsushi Nozaki Ryuichi Majima Koji Kameo Saburo Sakai Atsuro Kouda Shungo Kawagata Hideki Wada Hiroshi Kitazato 《Island Arc》2014,23(2):157-179
We present field and core observations, nannofossil biostratigraphy, and stable oxygen isotope fluctuations in foraminiferal tests to describe the geology and to construct an age model of the Lower Pleistocene Nojima, Ofuna, and Koshiba Formations (in ascending order) of the middle Kazusa Group, a forearc basin‐fill succession, exposed on the northern Miura Peninsula on the Pacific side of central Japan. In the study area, the Nojima Formation is composed of sandy mudstone and alternating sandy mudstone and mudstone, the Ofuna Formation of massive mudstone, and the Koshiba Formation of sandy mudstone, muddy sandstone, and sandstone. The Kazusa Group contains many tuff beds that are characteristic of forearc deposits. Thirty‐six of those tuff beds have characteristic lithologies and stratigraphic positions that allow them to be traced over considerable distances. Examination of calcareous nannofossils revealed three nannofossil datum planes in the sequences: datum 10 (first appearance of large Gephyrocapsa), datum 11 (first appearance of Gephyrocapsa oceanica), and datum 12 (first appearance of Gephyrocapsa caribbeanica). Stable oxygen isotope data from the tests of the planktonic foraminifer Globorotalia inflata extracted from cores were measured to identify the stratigraphic fluctuations of oxygen isotope ratios that are controlled by glacial–interglacial cycles. The observed fluctuations were assigned to marine isotope stages (MISs) 49–61 on the basis of correlations of the fluctuations with nannofossil datum planes. Using the age model obtained, we estimated the ages of 24 tuff beds. Among these, the SKT‐11 and SKT‐12 tuff beds have been correlated with the Kd25 and Kd24 tuff beds, respectively, of the Kiwada Formation on the Boso Peninsula. The Kd25 and Kd24 tuff beds are widely recognized in Pleistocene strata in Japan. We used our age model to date SKT‐11 at 1573 ka and SKT‐12 at 1543 ka. 相似文献
9.
Probabilistic Estimates of Number of Undiscovered Deposits and Their Total Tonnages in Permissive Tracts Using Deposit Densities 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Empirical evidence indicates that processes affecting number and quantity of resources in geologic settings are very general
across deposit types. Sizes of permissive tracts that geologically could contain the deposits are excellent predictors of
numbers of deposits. In addition, total ore tonnage of mineral deposits of a particular type in a tract is proportional to
the type’s median tonnage in a tract. Regressions using size of permissive tracts and median tonnage allow estimation of number
of deposits and of total tonnage of mineralization. These powerful estimators, based on 10 different deposit types from 109
permissive worldwide control tracts, generalize across deposit types. Estimates of number of deposits and of total tonnage
of mineral deposits are made by regressing permissive area, and mean (in logs) tons in deposits of the type, against number
of deposits and total tonnage of deposits in the tract for the 50th percentile estimates. The regression equations (R
2 = 0.91 and 0.95) can be used for all deposit types just by inserting logarithmic values of permissive area in square kilometers,
and mean tons in deposits in millions of metric tons. The regression equations provide estimates at the 50th percentile, and
other equations are provided for 90% confidence limits for lower estimates and 10% confidence limits for upper estimates of
number of deposits and total tonnage. Equations for these percentile estimates along with expected value estimates are presented
here along with comparisons with independent expert estimates. Also provided are the equations for correcting for the known
well-explored deposits in a tract. These deposit-density models require internally consistent grade and tonnage models and
delineations for arriving at unbiased estimates. 相似文献
10.
Most regional geochemistry data reflect processes that can produce superfluous bits of noise and, perhaps, information about the mineralization process of interest. There are two end-member approaches to finding patterns in geochemical data—unsupervised learning and supervised learning. In unsupervised learning, data are processed and the geochemist is given the task of interpreting and identifying possible sources of any patterns. In supervised learning, data from known subgroups such as rock type, mineralized and nonmineralized, and types of mineralization are used to train the system which then is given unknown samples to classify into these subgroups.To locate patterns of interest, it is helpful to transform the data and to remove unwanted masking patterns. With trace elements use of a logarithmic transformation is recommended. In many situations, missing censored data can be estimated using multiple regression of other uncensored variables on the variable with censored values.In unsupervised learning, transformed values can be standardized, or normalized, to a Z-score by subtracting the subset's mean and dividing by its standard deviation. Subsets include any source of differences that might be related to processes unrelated to the target sought such as different laboratories, regional alteration, analytical procedures, or rock types. Normalization removes effects of different means and measurement scales as well as facilitates comparison of spatial patterns of elements. These adjustments remove effects of different subgroups and hopefully leave on the map the simple and uncluttered pattern(s) related to the mineralization only.Supervised learning methods, such as discriminant analysis and neural networks, offer the promise of consistent and, in certain situations, unbiased estimates of where mineralization might exist. These methods critically rely on being trained with data that encompasses all populations fairly and that can possibly fall into only the identified populations. 相似文献
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