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Uncertainty assessment in quantitative rockfall risk assessment 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
Xueliang Wang Paolo Frattini G. B. Crosta Luqing Zhang Federico Agliardi Serena Lari Zhifa Yang 《Landslides》2014,11(4):711-722
This study shows a quantitative rockfall risk assessment (QRA) for a slope of the Feifeng Mountain (China), including an explicit assessment of the uncertainties. For rockfall risk analysis, the annual probability of occurrence, reach probability, temporal–spatial probability and vulnerability of tourists were calculated for both dry and rainy day conditions. The resulting individual risk for exposed people visiting the historical site can be considered as acceptable for all scenarios, whereas the overall societal risk lies within the as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) zone and therefore requires some mitigation actions. For the explicit assessment of uncertainty, an error propagation technique (first-order second moment (FOSM)) was adopted, starting from expert knowledge heuristic estimations of the coefficient of variation for each component of the risk analysis procedure. As a result, coefficients of variation of the calculated risk were obtained, ranging from 48 to 132 %, thus demonstrating the importance of accounting for uncertainty in rockfall risk modelling. A multi-criteria methodology is also proposed for the assessment of the standard deviation of the parameters adopted for the stochastic rockfall run-out model. 相似文献
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Yousef Ghanbari Ardeshir Hezarkhani Mohammad Ataei Kaveh Pazand 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2014,83(4):457-465
One of the major strengths of a GIS is the ability to integrate and combine multiple layers of geoscience data for producing mineral potential maps showing favorable areas for mineral exploration. Once the data is prepared properly, the GIS, jointly with other statistical and geostatistical software packages, can be used to manipulate and visualize the data in order to produce a mineral prospectivity map. Many spatial modeling techniques can be employed to produce mineral potential maps. This paper demonstrates a technique to define favorable areas for REE mineralization with AHP technique using geological, geochemical, geophysical, alteration and faults density spatial data in the Kerman-Kashmar Tectonic Zone of central Iran. The AHP is a powerful and flexible multi-criteria decision-making tool for dealing with complex problems where both qualitative and quantitative aspects need to be considered. This approach is knowledgedriven method and can be applied in other areas for conventional use in mineral exploration. 相似文献
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M. Vaccari C. Lari L. Angeretti D. Fadda C. Gruppioni F. Pozzi O. Prouton H. Aussel T. Babbedge P. Ciliegi A. Franceschini E. Gonzalez-Solares F. La Franca S. Oliver I. Perez-Fournon M. Rowan-Robinson S. Serjeant P. Väisänen 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,358(2):397-418
We present the final analysis of the European Large Area Infrared Space Observatory ( ISO ) Survey (ELAIS) 15-μm observations, carried out with the ISO Camera (ISOCAM) instrument on board the ISO .
The data-reduction method, known as the Lari Method, is based on a mathematical model of the behaviour of the detector and was specifically designed for the detection of faint sources in ISOCAM/ISO Photopolarimeter (ISOPHOT) data. The method is fully interactive and leads to very reliable and complete source lists.
The resulting catalogue includes 1923 sources detected with signal-to-noise ratio of > 5 in the 0.5–100 mJy flux range and over an area of 10.85 deg2 split into four fields, making it the largest non-serendipitous extragalactic source catalogue obtained to date from the ISO data.
This paper presents the concepts underlying the data-reduction method together with its latest enhancements. The data-reduction process, the production and basic properties of the resulting catalogue are discussed. The catalogue quality is assessed by means of detailed simulations, optical identifications and comparison with previous analyses. 相似文献
The data-reduction method, known as the Lari Method, is based on a mathematical model of the behaviour of the detector and was specifically designed for the detection of faint sources in ISOCAM/ISO Photopolarimeter (ISOPHOT) data. The method is fully interactive and leads to very reliable and complete source lists.
The resulting catalogue includes 1923 sources detected with signal-to-noise ratio of > 5 in the 0.5–100 mJy flux range and over an area of 10.85 deg
This paper presents the concepts underlying the data-reduction method together with its latest enhancements. The data-reduction process, the production and basic properties of the resulting catalogue are discussed. The catalogue quality is assessed by means of detailed simulations, optical identifications and comparison with previous analyses. 相似文献
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Accurate information on the conditions of road asphalt is necessary for economic development and transportation management. In this study, object-based image analysis (OBIA) rule-sets are proposed based on feature selection technique to extract road asphalt conditions (good and poor) using WorldView-2 (WV-2) satellite data. Different feature selection techniques, including support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF) and chi-square (CHI) are evaluated to indicate the most effective algorithm to identify the best set of OBIA attributes (spatial, spectral, textural and colour). The chi-square algorithm outperformed SVM and RF techniques. The classification result based on CHI algorithm achieved an overall accuracy of 83.19% for the training image (first site). Furthermore, the proposed model was used to examine its performance in different areas; and it achieved accuracy levels of 83.44, 87.80 and 80.26% for the different selected areas. Therefore, the selected method can be potentially useful for detecting road conditions based on WV-2 images. 相似文献
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J. Derkaoui G. Giacomelli T. Lari G. Mandrioli M. Ouchrif L. Patrizii V. Popa 《Astroparticle Physics》1999,10(4):117-352
A systematic analysis of the energy losses of magnetic monopoles of different magnetic charges and of dyons in three types of detectors are investigated for a large range of β = υ/c (β > 10−5). More specifically we have computed the light yield in liquid scintillators, the ionization in streamer tubes and the Restricted Energy Loss in the CR39 nuclear track detectors. Also the total energy losses have been analyzed. 相似文献
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Evaluating an Analytical Model to Predict Subsurface LNAPL Distributions and Transmissivity from Current and Historic Fluid Levels in Groundwater Wells: Comparing Results to Numerical Simulations 
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下载免费PDF全文 Robert J. Lenhard Kaveh Sookhak Lari John L. Rayner Greg B. Davis 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》2018,38(1):75-84
A recent analytical model predicts free, entrapped, and residual LNAPL saturations and the LNAPL transmissivity in the subsurface from current and historic fluid levels in groundwater wells. As such, the model accounts for effects of fluid level fluctuations in a well. The model was developed to predict LNAPL specific volumes and transmissivities from current fluid level measurements in wells and either recorded historic fluid level fluctuations in wells or estimates. An assumption is made in the model that the predictions are not dependent on whether the historic highest or lowest fluid level elevations in a well occur first. To test the assumption, we conduct two simulations with a modified multiphase flow numerical code TMVOC that incorporates relative permeability‐saturation‐capillary head relations employed in the model. In one simulation, the initial condition is for fluid levels in a well at the historic highest elevations. In the other simulation, the initial condition is for fluid levels in a well at the historic lowest elevations. We change the boundary conditions so both historical conditions occur followed by generating the current condition. Results from the numerical simulations are compared to model predictions and show the assumption in the analytical model is reasonable. The analytical model can be used to develop/refine conceptual site models and for assessing potential LNAPL recovery endpoints, especially on sites with fluctuating fluid levels in wells. 相似文献
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Johannes Becherer Jacobus Hofstede Ulf Gräwe Kaveh Purkiani Elisabeth Schulz Hans Burchard 《Ocean Dynamics》2018,68(1):131-151
The impact of sea level rise (SLR) on the future morphological development of the Wadden Sea (North Sea) is investigated by means of extensive process-resolving numerical simulations. A new sediment and morphodynamic module was implemented in the well-established 3D circulation model GETM. A number of different validations are presented, ranging from an idealized 1D channel over a semi-idealized 2D Wadden Sea basin to a fully coupled realistic 40-year hindcast without morphological amplification of the Sylt-Rømøbight, a semi-enclosed subsystem of the Wadden Sea. Based on the results of the hindcast, four distinct future scenarios covering the period 2010–2100 are simulated. While these scenarios differ in the strength of SLR and wind forcing, they also account for an expected increase of tidal range over the coming century. The results of the future projections indicate a transition from a tidal-flat-dominated system toward a lagoon-like system, in which large fractions of the Sylt-Rømøbight will remain permanently covered by water. This has potentially dramatic implications for the unique ecosystem of the Wadden Sea. Although the simulations also predict an increased accumulation of sediment in the back-barrier basin, this accumulation is far too weak to compensate for the rise in mean sea level. 相似文献