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1.
Different approaches to estimating the parameters of SWAP physically based model, which describes heat and water transfer processes in the soil-vegetaion (snow) cover-atmosphere system are examined. In particular, two methods of a priori estimation of parameter values and two variants of their calibration are discussed. The parameter sets obtained by different methods were used to simulate the runoff from 12 experimental catchments in the eastern USA. The calculations were conducted for a 39-year period (1960–1998) with a 3-hour step. The results of calculations were compared with each other and with measured river runoff values in order to identify the parameter set that is optimal for runoff evaluation. A strategy is proposed for a priori parameter estimation in the case of basins where observational data are too poor to enable parameter calibration. 相似文献
2.
The efficiency of the methods of spatial proximity and geostatistics, as well as physico-geographic similarity, is studied as applied to the evaluation of the key model parameters of ungauged watersheds to be used in river runoff calculation by SWAP model. The target geographic objects were 323 experimental watersheds of MOPEX project. The quality of model parameter estimates and reproduction of river runoff hydrographs was analyzed in the case of the use of different similarity methods, and the order of decisions to be made was developed for the problem of river runoff calculation from an ungauged watershed for the entire area under study. 相似文献
3.
O. N. Nasonova 《Water Resources》2011,38(3):274-283
Rainfall runoff hydrographs for 12 river basins ∼103 km2 in area, simulated using land surface model SWAP, are compared with analogous hydrographs obtained using hydrological models
that took part in the International Model Parameter Estimation Experiment project and demonstrated the best results. All models
were calibrated against data on daily river runoff from each basin over a 20-year period (1960–1979). Optimized model parameters
were used to simulate runoff hydrographs for the following 19 years (1980–1998). The comparison of the modeled hydrographs
for 12 basins in different calculational periods demonstrated that the SWAP model can simulate river runoff with an accuracy
comparable with that of hydrological models. 相似文献
4.
The dynamics of meteorological elements in the Lena R. Basin is predicted for the XXI century under four IPCC global scenarios of SRES family, corresponding to specified scenarios of the economic, technological, political, and demographic development of the civilization. The obtained predictions are used to simulate variants of possible changes in water balance components in the Lena Basin up to the mid-XXI century. The calculation procedure is based on the use of land-surface model SWAP and a climate scenario generator MAGICC/SCENGEN. 相似文献
5.
The potentialities of a procedure for calculating the Pechora River runoff from the pan-Arctic river basin are studied. The procedure is based on the use of a model describing heat and water exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere and two variants of input data sets relying on global databases on meteorological characteristics and land surface parameters and data of standard measurements of meteorological characteristics in combination with parameters of the land surface of the basin, taken from global databases. In both cases, use was made of the method for optimizing part of the most important model parameters, including both land surface parameters and correction factors for some meteorological elements. 相似文献
6.
A method is developed for scenario prediction of changes in water balance components in northern river basins in the context of possible climate changes. The method uses the land surface model SWAP, describing the heat and mass exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere. Four IPCC climate scenarios, corresponding to specified scenarios of economic, technological, political, and demographic development of the human civilization, were used to forecast different variants of the dynamics of meteorological characteristics in the Northern Dvina River basin in the XXI century, which served as a basis for evaluating possible changes in precipitation, evaporation, and runoff from the Northern Dvina basin until the year of 2063. 相似文献
7.
Data on the rivers of Onega, Ponoi, and Tuloma have been used to study whether the land surface model SWAP can serve as a
tool to reproduce many-year series of daily runoff hydrographs of rivers in Northern Russia. The input data for the model
have been derived from observational data from weather stations and global databases. It has been considered whether the model
parameters obtained for one river can be used for calculations for other rivers where no data on appropriate parameters are
available. 相似文献
8.
The ability of the physically-based Soil Water-Atmosphere-Plants model, describing the processes of heat and water exchange between the land surface and the near-surface atmosphere, to reproduce hydrographs of daily river runoff is examined and compared with the Sacramento conceptual hydrological model, which has demonstrated the best performance in the International Model Parameter Estimation Experiment. Model simulations were carried out for 12 river basins with the area of ～103 km2 in the southeastern USA for the period of 1960–1998, of which the first 20 years were used to calibrate both models, while the last 19 years were used to validate them. The daily runoff hydrographs reproduced by the Soil Water-Atmosphere-Plants model, calibrated using different methods with the aim to maximize its accuracy, were compared with observational data and the results from the Sacramento model. 相似文献
9.
A technique for the estimation of changes in components of the water and carbon budgets of coniferous ecosystems as a result of possible anthropogenic climate changes has been developed. The technique is based on the SWAP model of heat, water, and carbon exchanges in coniferous ecosystems, which was previously developed by the authors, and the MAGICC/SCENGEN generator of climatic scenarios for various regions of the Earth. The technique is used for estimating changes in the evapotranspiration and carbon budget of the developing coniferous forest ecosystem in the Loobos experimental site (the Netherlands) in the 21st century in connection with an increase in the anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere expected in accordance with the IPCC IS92a scenario of the economic, technological, political, and demographic development of human civilization up to 2100. 相似文献
10.
The ability of a new version of SWAP physically based model, which describes the heat and water exchange processes in the soil-vegetation (snow cover)-near-surface atmosphere system and has been adapted to the permafrost conditions, to reproduce runoff formation at small watersheds in the permafrost zone. The procedure for the preparation of missing input data for model simulations is described. Model simulations were performed based on observational data collected within a decade (1969–1978) by the Kolyma Water Balance Station, located in a high-land continuous permafrost zone. The results of comparison of the modelled daily and annual runoff with data of appropriate measurements in a number of experimental watersheds in the basin of the Kontaktovyi Creek (Upper Kolyma) are analyzed. 相似文献