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The age of past lava flows is crucial information for evaluating the hazards and risks posed by effusive volcanoes, but traditional dating methods are expensive and time‐consuming. This study proposes an alternative statistical dating method based on remote sensing observations of tropical volcanoes by exploiting the relationship between lava flow age and vegetation cover. First, the factors controlling vegetation density on lava flows, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), were investigated. These factors were then integrated into pixel‐based multi‐variable regression models of lava flow age to derive lava flow age maps. The method was tested at a pixel scale on three tropical African volcanoes with considerable recent effusive activity: Nyamuragira (Democratic Republic of Congo), Mt Cameroon (Cameroon) and Karthala (the Comoros). Due to different climatic and topographic conditions, the parameters of the spatial modeling are volcano‐specific. Validation suggests that the obtained statistical models are robust and can thus be applied for estimating the age of unmodified undated lava flow surfaces for these volcanoes. When the models are applied to fully vegetated lava flows, the results should be interpreted with caution due to the saturation of NDVI. In order to improve the accuracy of the models, when available, spatial data on temperature and precipitation should be included to directly represent climatic variation. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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The present study analysed the taphonomic characteristics of small mammal bone accumulations produced by small felids in an area from the central Monte Desert (Mendoza, Argentina). In order to provide criteria to identify the role that these predators had in the formation of zooarchaeological assemblages, the anatomical representation, bone breakage patterns and degrees of digestive corrosion were evaluated. The main taphonomic results are: low average values for the relative abundance of skeletal elements; greater representation of mandibles, maxillae, isolated incisors, humeri and femora than the remaining elements; preponderance of cranial elements with high proportion of isolated teeth; elevated frequencies of proximal limb bones compared with distal parts; high degree of breakage in all skeletal elements and digestive corrosion on almost all diagnostic bones (mainly moderate and heavy). The values of the studied taphonomic variables indicate that small felids in this area made severe alterations to the bones of their prey (mainly rodents), attributable to the category of extreme modifier, while preserving enough skeletal elements to allow their taphonomic characterization. Tooth marks or grooves on bone surfaces produced by scratching and chewing were not detected. The low relative abundance of skeletal elements, the high degree of breakage and the elevated frequency of elements with digestion traces represent general taphonomic patterns that fall within those reported for other South American small carnivores.  相似文献   
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A complete methodology is developed to analyze the recurrence of extreme environmental events and its variability as time without further events elapses. Firstly we investigate the conditioned recurrence inference problem consisting in the selection of a probability model for the interarrival time between extreme events, given a contexto-factual evidence conditioned by the time elapsed since the last of such events. Two ways to include this condition can be considered, which yield alternative conditioned evidences and convert the former problem into two distinct ones, thus giving rise to a possible consistency violation. These problems are formalized within the logical probability framework, in a plausible logic language that allows a suitable expression of the available observational data. They are solved using the REF relative entropy method with fractile constraints, and their solutions are compared at all inference levels. It is concluded that the two conditioning ways are not really mutually exclusive and that a unique global solution to the conditioned inference can be obtained using this procedure. An example illustrates an application of the methodology to the variability analysis of the recurrence time between historical inundations of the Guadalquivir river in Spain, as time elapses with no new floods.Acknowledgments. Support for this work was provided by DGI of Spain as the grant REN2000-2988-E/CLI and the research project REN2002-01337/CLI.  相似文献   
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The cross-entropy method with fractile constraints has been developed to estimate a random variable when the data are a set of independent observations of the variable. The method can claim several advantages over existing methods. It uses a reference distribution like the prior distribution in Bayesian analysis and likewise generates a posterior distribution.The method is of interest, in particular, because it satisfies two fundamental requirements for selfconsistency in the analysis of a probabilistic system based on data: a principle of invariance and a principle of data monotonicity.The method is applied to flood analysis. Robustness of the minimum cross-entropy method is compared with other methods: the methods of moments and the maximum likehood.  相似文献   
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Historic and recent (last 2,000?years) eruptions on the active volcanic island of Tenerife have been predominantly effusive, indicating that this is the most probable type of activity to be expected in the near future. In the past, lava flow invasion caused major damage on the island, and as the population and infrastructure have increased dramatically since the last eruption, lava flows are the most important short-term volcanic risk on Tenerife. Hence, an understanding of lava flow behaviour is vital to manage risks from lava flows and minimise future losses on the island. This paper focuses on the lava flows from the historic eruptions in Tenerife, providing new data on the volumes emitted, advance rates and the timing of the emplacement of flows. The studies show three main stages in the development of unconfined flow fields: the first stage, corresponding to the fast advance of the initial fronts during the first 24?C36?h of eruption (reaching calculated velocities of up to 1.1?m/s); the second stage, in which fronts stagnate; and a third stage, in which secondary lava flows develop from breakouts 4?C7?days after the initial eruption and farther extend the flow field (velocities of up to 0.02?m/s have been calculated for this stage). The breakouts identified originated at sites both proximal and distal to the vent and, in both cases, caused damage through lengthening and widening the original flow field. Hence, the probability of damage from lavas to land and property is highest during stages 1 and 3, and this should be accounted for when planning the response to a future effusive eruption. Tenerife??s lava flows display a similar behaviour to that of lava flows on volcanoes characterised by basaltic effusive activity (such as Etna or Kilauea), indicating the possibility of applying forecasting models developed at those frequently active volcanoes to Tenerife.  相似文献   
6.
 Regional flood analysis is formulated as a physical-modelling problem consisting in the inference of meaningful physical models for a set of observable uncertain quantities representing floods, given the observed data separately associated with them. It is argued that physical modelling suitable for representing causality relationships should involve the use of models comprising functional dependences of the observable uncertain quantities with regard to other quantities which are unobservable. The regional physical-modelling problem becomes the selection, from any proposed space of candidate models, of a probability distribution for the unobservable uncertain quantities together with a functional-dependence model connecting the observable to the unobservable uncertain quantities. Due to the need to coherently represent observational data and to express precisely the available evidences, the physical modelling problem is formalized in a plausible logic language, within the logical probability framework. A logical inference procedure called the relative entropy method with fractile constraints (REF) is formulated within this framework and extended to solve the regional physical-modelling problem. Contrary to the current statistical methods, it allows the selection and validation of inferred models and can be applied whatever it is the number of observational data. The complete solution to the problem using the relative entropy procedure is presented. This method is applied to the regional modelling of annual maximum floods of a set of separate rivers in the Iberian Peninsula. For this application the space of candidate models includes several types of two-parameter probability distributions for the unobservable uncertain quantities and the class of linear homogeneous functional-dependence models connecting the observable to the unobservable quantities.  相似文献   
7.
Aquatic macrophytes produce large amounts of organic matter and have an essential structuring role in floodplains. This process highlights the importance of this community to aquatic biodiversity maintenance. We investigated the role of a flood disturbance on the response of macrophyte assemblages in regional and local structuring in the Upper Paraná River floodplain. Plant species were recorded before (November 2006) and after (March 2007) an uncommon increase in water level caused by the El Niño South Oscillation, which is considered a disturbance. Samples were taken in lakes and backwaters located in the floodplain and connected to three distinct rivers (that differentiate three sub-systems). Species richness and the assemblage structure of macrophyte patches underwent significant changes after the flood disturbance, depending on the specific sub-system (rivers) to which the lakes were connected. In addition, flood disturbance had a strong impact on community organization at the local scale. However, regionalization with respect to sub-systems remained significant after the flood disturbance. Our results emphasize the importance of connection to the river on macrophyte community composition and richness, and suggest that flood events in the Upper Paraná River floodplain disrupt community organization only at fine (local) scales.  相似文献   
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