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As the Mississippi River plays a major role in fulfilling various water demands in North America, accurate prediction of river flow and sediment transport in the basin is crucial for undertaking both short‐term emergency measures and long‐term management efforts. To this effect, the present study investigates the predictability of river flow and suspended sediment transport in the basin. As most of the existing approaches that link water discharge, suspended sediment concentration and suspended sediment load possess certain limitations (absence of consensus on linkages), this study employs an approach that presents predictions of a variable based on history of the variable alone. The approach, based on non‐linear determinism, involves: (1) reconstruction of single‐dimensional series in multi‐dimensional phase‐space for representing the underlying dynamics; and (2) use of the local approximation technique for prediction. For implementation, river flow and suspended sediment transport variables observed at the St. Louis (Missouri) station are studied. Specifically, daily water discharge, suspended sediment concentration and suspended sediment load data are analysed for their predictability and range, by making predictions from one day to ten days ahead. The results lead to the following conclusions: (1) extremely good one‐day ahead predictions are possible for all the series; (2) prediction accuracy decreases with increasing lead time for all the series, but the decrease is much more significant for suspended sediment concentration and suspended sediment load; and (3) the number of mechanisms dominantly governing the dynamics is three for each of the series. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Marco P Maneta Purnendu N Singh Marcelo Torres Wesley W Wallender Stephen A Vosti Lineu N Rodrigues Luis H Bassoi Julie A Young 《Area》2009,41(1):94-106
Reducing poverty in rural areas of developing countries requires sustained and sustainable increases in agricultural water productivity. However, aside from traditional measures of precipitation, little is known about water available to farmers or how productively they use it. We present a crop-water productivity index (a ratio of the value of annual crop production to a dimensionless potential water availability index) for large water basins using readily available low-resolution data. The index is transferable, permits direct inter-basin comparisons, and is simple to calculate. We calculate the index for each municipality in the São Francisco river basin in Brazil. No clear patterns linking water availability and value of agricultural output are evident, even though clusters of municípios with high- and low-crop-water productivity emerge, and the former may be useful in guiding policies aimed at increasing water productivity. Finally, analyses of the effects of information uncertainty on the crop-water productivity index suggest that the returns to agricultural investments in certain places in the São Francisco river basin are more risky than others. Improvements in data quality and quantity can help refine estimates of the index and reduce their uncertainty. 相似文献
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Pilot-point based multi-objective calibration in a surface–subsurface distributed hydrological model
Abstract In this study, a fully-coupled surface–subsurface, distributed, physics-based hydrological model was calibrated using the pilot-point method. A minimum variance field rule was included in the objective function to regularize the extensive calibration exercise that included 74 parameters (72 associated with pilot points and two spatially-invariant channel parameters). Because the overland and vadose zone systems are not in permanent hydrological connection, the information contained in the observation points may not be accessible by the pilot points at all times, rendering them insensitive to the observations and hindering the calibration process. An analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of parameter sensitivities was done to explore how the information contained in local observations spreads from the observation points to the pilot points, where parameter values are identified. The results show that the channel flow time series is valuable to identify the parameters at all pilot-point locations, indicating that the information in channel flow propagates to the entire basin. However, information in soil moisture measurements is of local extent and thus only valuable to identify the parameters at locations close to the observation point. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor I. Nalbantis Citation Maneta, M.P. and Wallender, W.W., 2013. Pilot-point based multi-objective calibration in a surface–subsurface distributed hydrological model. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 390–407. 相似文献
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Erika K. Wallender Elizabeth C. Ailes Jonathan S. Yoder Virginia A. Roberts Joan M. Brunkard 《Ground water》2014,52(6):886-897
Disease outbreaks associated with drinking water drawn from untreated groundwater sources represent a substantial proportion (30.3%) of the 818 drinking water outbreaks reported to CDC's Waterborne Disease and Outbreak Surveillance System (WBDOSS) during 1971 to 2008. The objectives of this study were to identify underlying contributing factors, suggest improvements for data collection during outbreaks, and inform outbreak prevention efforts. Two researchers independently reviewed all qualifying outbreak reports (1971 to 2008), assigned contributing factors and abstracted additional information (e.g., cases, etiology, and water system attributes). The 248 outbreaks resulted in at least 23,478 cases of illness, 390 hospitalizations, and 13 deaths. The majority of outbreaks had an unidentified etiology (n = 135, 54.4%). When identified, the primary etiologies were hepatitis A virus (n = 21, 8.5%), Shigella spp. (n = 20, 8.1%), and Giardia intestinalis (n = 14, 5.7%). Among the 172 (69.4%) outbreaks with contributing factor data available, the leading contamination sources included human sewage (n = 57, 33.1%), animal contamination (n = 16, 9.3%), and contamination entering via the distribution system (n = 12, 7.0%). Groundwater contamination was most often facilitated by improper design, maintenance or location of the water source or nearby waste water disposal system (i.e., septic tank; n = 116, 67.4%). Other contributing factors included rapid pathogen transport through hydrogeologic formations (e.g., karst limestone; n = 45, 26.2%) and preceding heavy rainfall or flooding (n = 36, 20.9%). This analysis underscores the importance of identifying untreated groundwater system vulnerabilities through frequent inspection and routine maintenance, as recommended by protective regulations such as Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Groundwater Rule, and the need for special consideration of the local hydrogeology. 相似文献
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Regional-scale hydrologic modeling is capable of assessing the impacts of irrigation practices and management strategies on
water resources requires the estimation of spatially heterogeneous hydrologic properties. This paper shows how textural data
from lithologic and geophysical logs of wells in the Western San Joaquin Valley, California, were kriged to obtain a regional
spatial soil texture distribution. Surfaces obtained using three-dimensional indicator kriging are compared with those obtained
using an inverse distance-weighting technique. Greatest differences between the methods occur where data with disparate values
are clustered. Expected kriged values, which are less extreme than those from distance-weighting, are considered to be more
representative of average values over three-dimensional spatial blocks, because they include the effect of local variability
via the nuggest and use vertically correlated data. Anisotropic hydraulic conductivities are estimated from expected values
of the kriged heterogeneous textural distribution to obtain improved estimates of regional hydrologic properties that also
provide valuable information regarding uncertainty of the estimates.
RESUMEN: Una modelización hidrológica a escala regional, capaz de evaluar los impactos de las prácticas de irrigación y de las estrategias de gestión de los recursos hidráulicos, requiere la estimación de propriedades hidrológicas que son hetereogéneas espacialmente. Este artículo muestra como los datos de textura procedentes de sondeos litológicos y geofísicos en pozos del Valle de Western San Joaquin, California, se krigearon para obtener la distribución espacial regional de la textura des suelo. Las superficies obtenidas usando krigeado indicador tridimensional se compararon con las obtenidas mediante la técnica de ponderación inversa con la distancia. Las mayores diferencias entre los dos métodos aparecen al agruparse datos con valores dispares. Los valores esperados procedentes del krigeado, menos extremos que los obtenidos por ponderación, se consideran más representativos de los valores medios sobre bloques tridimensionales, porque permiten incluir el efecto de la variabilidad local a través del comportamiento pepitítico, y porque usan datos correlacionados verticalmente. Se pueden estimar conductividades hidrálicas anisótropas a partir de los valores esperados krigeados de la distribución textural. Ello permite obtener mejores estimaciones de las propiedades hidrológicas regionales, así como información valiosa sobre la incertidumbre de las estimaciones.
RéSUMé: La modélisation hydrologique à l'échelle régionale, dans le but d'évaluer les impacts des pratiques d'irrigation et des stratégies d'aménagement sur les ressources en cau, exige d'estimer les propriétés hydrogéologiques d'un ensemble hétérogène. C'est ainsi qu'il est montré comment les données sur la texture tirées de logs lithologiques et géophysiques de puits dans l'ouest de la vallée de San Joaquin (Californie) ont été krigées pour définir la répartition spatiale régionale de la texture des sols. Les surfaces obtenues au moyen d'un krigeage avec un indicateur 3-D sont comparées avec celles obtenues par une méthode inverse de pondération de distance. Il apparait de grandes différences entre les résultats de ces méthodes, là où les données sont rassemblées en groupes disparates. Les valeurs estimées par krigeage, qui présentent des extrêmes moindres que ceux de la méthode de pondération, sont considérées comme étant plus représentatives des valeurs moyennes dans des blocs en 3-D, parce q'elles prennent en compte les effets de la variabilité locale au travers de l'effet pépite et q'elles utilisent des données corrélées verticalement. Les conductivités hydrauliques anisotropes sont déduites des valuers estimées par krigeage de la distribution hétérogène de la texture, afin d'obtenir des estimations améliorées des propriétés hydrogéologiques régionales qui fournissent aussi une information intéressante sur l'incertitude des estimations.相似文献
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D.R. Purkey W.W. Wallender Nazrul Islam G.E. Fogg B. Sivakumar 《Journal of Hydrology》2006,330(3-4):435-443
Hydrologic models of irrigated lands generally adopt either a basin-scale or a root-zone perspective. While basin-wide macro-scale models rely on the aggregation of important spatial and temporal data across large areas, micro-scale root-zone models depend on the definition of rigid boundaries around the zone of plant–soil–water interaction. In reality, irrigation management decisions are made on a field by field basis and can interact across field boundaries. This paper first describes a shallow water table model, based on deforming finite element (DFE) framework, to characterize the near-surface field-to-field hydrologic response to various irrigation and drainage management regimes along a gently sloping alluvial fan. The model is then enhanced through changing geometry of a fluctuating water table below a series of irrigated fields. Such an enhancement also offers computational flexibility relative to the saturated–unsaturated models commonly used in micro-scale studies. The model is designed with the alluvial fan aquifers of California’s western San Joaquin Valley as reference systems. 相似文献
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Bellie Sivakumar Wesley W. Wallender William R. Horwath Jeffrey P. Mitchell Samuel E. Prentice Brian A. Joyce 《水文研究》2006,20(8):1723-1736
This study investigates the dynamic nature of rainfall observed at the Sustainable Agriculture Farming Systems (SAFS) site in California's Sacramento Valley, which was established to study the benefits of winter cover cropping in Mediterranean irrigated‐arid systems. Rainfall data of four different temporal scales (i.e. daily, weekly, biweekly, and monthly) are analysed to determine the dynamic nature of precipitation in time. In an arid climate with seasonal precipitation this has large implications for land and water management, both in the short term and in the long term. A nonlinear dynamic technique (correlation dimension method) that uses the phase‐space reconstruction and dimension concepts is employed. Bearing in mind the possible effects of the presence of zeros (i.e. no rain) on the outcomes of this analysis, an attempt is also made to compare the dynamic nature of all‐year rainfall and winter rainfall. Analysis of 15 years of data suggests that rainfall dynamics at this site are dominated by a large number of variables, regardless of the scales and seasons studied. The dimension results also suggest that: (1) rainfall dynamics at coarser resolutions are more irregular than that at finer resolutions; (2) winter rainfall has a higher variability than all‐year rainfall. These results are indeed useful to gain information about the complexity of the rainfall process at this site with respect to (temporal) scales and seasons and, hence, the appropriate model (high‐dimensional) type. However, in view of the potential effects of certain rainfall data characteristics (e.g. zeros, measurement errors, scale effects) on the correlation dimension analysis, the discussion also emphasizes the need for further verification, and possibly confirmation, of these results. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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