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Papathoma-Koehle Maria Promper Catrin Bojariu Roxana Cica Roxana Sik Andr&#;s Perge Kinga L&#;szl&#; Peter Czikora Erika Bal&#;zs Dumitrescu Alexandru Turcus Cosmin Birsan Marius-Victor Velea Liliana Glade Thomas 《Natural Hazards》2016,81(1):89-115
This paper reports on a quantitative estimation of the risk to residents at the toe of Mount Albino, a carbonatic relief covered by shallow deposits of pyroclastic soils, which threatens the municipality of Nocera Inferiore (southern Italy). The quantitative risk analysis (QRA) focuses on one type of mass transport phenomena typical for the context at hand, namely the hyperconcentrated flows. The methodological approach includes three main steps: hazard analysis, consequence analysis and risk estimation. Based on historical incident data, the hazard analysis makes use of a high-resolution digital terrain model and advanced models that incorporate relevant geological and geotechnical input data collected via in situ investigations and laboratory tests. The consequence analysis takes into account information on the exposed persons (age, gender) and their vulnerability. The estimated risk to life is calculated at the individual level (risk to the average and most exposed person). The reported procedure is one of the first QRA’s applications to instabilities which potentially affect natural slopes in Italy, and it was successfully used as technical basis for a public participatory process in Nocera Inferiore, designed and developed to support decisions about risk mitigation measures. 相似文献
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Precipitation (P) and freshwater (E-P) fluxes at the air-sea interface are investigated in the Atlantic Ocean sector using the reanalyses of the European Centre
for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ERA) and of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). A canonical correlation
analysis method between these fields and sea level pressure (SLP) is used to identify patterns. We also test whether precipitation
and freshwater fluxes can be reconstructed from SLP data. In the winter months, patterns associated with both the North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic (EA) mode are identified. The signals are strong enough to be reconstructed from the
reanalysis fields, and they correspond to a significant part of the variability. The NAO signal is more robust than the EA
one. The NAO-related variability mode is also present when the monthly precipitation rate is averaged for the winter season
and even for annual averages. However, in the later case, other variability of natural origin (for instance, ENSO variability)
or noise from the model and assimilation system prevents the reconstruction of E-P associated with NAO from SLP variability. Difficulties are identified in the tropical Atlantic with a different behaviour
of NCEP and ERA precipitation variability, especially near the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The ERA patterns suggest
a NAO signature in the tropical Atlantic which has clear monthly patterns and indicates a link between the phase of NAO and
changes in the position and intensity of ITCZ. However, the analysis of winter rainfall based on satellite and in situ data
does not support the monthly tropical pattern of ERA precipitation although it suggests a relation between convection near
15°S and NAO during northern winter.
Received: 10 February 2000 / Accepted: 7 May 2001 相似文献
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