Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes: Preliminary Results from the Polish-Norwegian Project   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Renata J. Romanowicz  Ewa Bogdanowicz  Sisay E. Debele  Joanna Doroszkiewicz  Hege Hisdal  Deborah Lawrence  Hadush K. Meresa  Jaroslaw J. Napiórkowski  Marzena Osuch  Witold G. Strupczewski  Donna Wilson  Wai Kwok Wong 《Acta Geophysica》2016,64(2):477-509

This paper presents the background, objectives, and preliminary outcomes from the first year of activities of the Polish–Norwegian project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes). The project aims to estimate the influence of climate changes on extreme river flows (low and high) and to evaluate the impact on the frequency of occurrence of hydrological extremes. Eight “twinned” catchments in Poland and Norway serve as case studies. We present the procedures of the catchment selection applied in Norway and Poland and a database consisting of near-natural ten Polish and eight Norwegian catchments constructed for the purpose of climate impact assessment. Climate projections for selected catchments are described and compared with observations of temperature and precipitation available for the reference period. Future changes based on those projections are analysed and assessed for two periods, the near future (2021–2050) and the far-future (2071–2100). The results indicate increases in precipitation and temperature in the periods and regions studied both in Poland and Norway.  相似文献   

Climate change impact on extreme precipitation and peak flood magnitude and frequency: observations from CMIP6 and hydrological models     

Meresa  Hadush  Tischbein  Bernhard  Mekonnen  Tewodros 《Natural Hazards》2022,111(3):2649-2679

Natural Hazards - Changes in climate intensity and frequency, including extreme events, heavy and intense rainfall, have the greatest impact on water resource management and flood risk management....  相似文献   

Projected changes in flood indices in selected catchments in Poland in the 21st century     

Marzena?OsuchEmail author  Deborah?Lawrence  Hadush?K.?Meresa  Jaroslaw?J.?Napiorkowski  Renata?J.?Romanowicz 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(9):2435-2457

The aim of this study is to estimate likely changes in flood indices under a future climate and to assess the uncertainty in these estimates for selected catchments in Poland. Precipitation and temperature time series from climate simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative for the periods 1971–2000, 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 following the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios have been used to produce hydrological simulations based on the HBV hydrological model. As the climate model outputs for Poland are highly biased, post processing in the form of bias correction was first performed so that the climate time series could be applied in hydrological simulations at a catchment-scale. The results indicate that bias correction significantly improves flow simulations and estimated flood indices based on comparisons with simulations from observed climate data for the control period. The estimated changes in the mean annual flood and in flood quantiles under a future climate indicate a large spread in the estimates both within and between the catchments. An ANOVA analysis was used to assess the relative contributions of the 2 emission scenarios, the 7 climate models and the 4 bias correction methods to the total spread in the projected changes in extreme river flow indices for each catchment. The analysis indicates that the differences between climate models generally make the largest contribution to the spread in the ensemble of the three factors considered. The results for bias corrected data show small differences between the four bias correction methods considered, and, in contrast with the results for uncorrected simulations, project increases in flood indices for most catchments under a future climate.  相似文献   

What can we learn from the projections of changes of flow patterns? Results from Polish case studies   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Mikołaj Piniewski  Hadush Kidane Meresa  Renata Romanowicz  Marzena Osuch  Mateusz Szcześniak  Ignacy Kardel  Tomasz Okruszko  Abdelkader Mezghani  Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz 《Acta Geophysica》2017,65(4):809-827

River flow projections for two future time horizons and RCP 8.5 scenario, generated by two projects (CHASE-PL and CHIHE) in the Polish-Norwegian Research Programme, were compared. The projects employed different hydrological models over different spatial domains. The semi-distributed, process-based, SWAT model was used in the CHASE-PL project for the entire Vistula and Odra basins area, whilst the lumped, conceptual, HBV model was used in the CHIHE project for eight Polish catchments, for which the comparison study was made. Climate projections in both studies originated from the common EURO-CORDEX dataset, but they were different, e.g. due to different bias correction approaches. Increases in mean annual and seasonal flows were projected in both studies, yet the magnitudes of changes were largely different, in particular for the lowland catchments in the far future. The HBV-based increases were significantly higher in the latter case than the SWAT-based increases in all seasons except winter. Uncertainty in projections is high and creates a problem for practitioners.  相似文献