Probabilistic calibration of a coupled hydro-mechanical slope stability model with integration of multiple observations     

Lulu Zhang  Fang Wu  Yafei Zheng  Lihong Chen  Jie Zhang  Xu Li 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2018,12(3):169-182

Multiple types of responses, such as displacements, ground water level, pore water pressures, water contents, etc., are usually measured in comprehensive monitoring programmes for rainfall-induced landslide prevention. In this study, a probabilistic calibration method for coupled hydro-mechanical modelling of slope stability is presented with integration of multiple types of measurements. A numerical example of a soil slope under rainfall infiltration is illustrated to compare the effects of single and multiple types of responses on parameter estimation and model calibration. The results show that the soil parameters can be estimated with less uncertainty and total uncertainty bounds are narrower with multiple types of responses than with a single type of response. Model calibration based on multiple types of responses can compromise different responses and hence the means and standard deviations of model error are the smallest. A feasible correlation coefficient between soil modulus and permeability can be obtained from model calibration with multiple types of responses and single type of response as long as the responses include displacement data.  相似文献   

基于深反射地震剖面的沂沭断裂带岩石圈精细结构     

张尚坤  罗文强  于学峰  田京祥  唐璐璐  陈军  杨斌  杜圣贤  刘凤臣  仵康林 《地质学报》2021,95(11):3192-3204

为揭示沂沭断裂带深部结构及发生—发展过程,查清断裂切割深度及对岩石圈地幔的破坏,探讨沂沭断裂带的构造组合样式、运动方式、地壳稳定性及其对资源环境的约束作用,研究团队于2019年在沂沭断裂带南段沂南—莒县附近布设了一条长约60 km的深反射地震剖面,系统采集了沂沭断裂带和两侧地块的地震数据,对沂沭断裂带深部岩石圈精细结构进行了解剖.结果显示,该区岩石圈结构在横向上表现为以沂沭断裂带为界的块状结构特征,地壳厚度约30.8～39.5 km;莫霍面总体呈西浅东深态势,并被西倾的沂水—汤头断裂(F2)和昌邑—大店断裂(F4)错断,垂直落差达10.5 km.与浅部"两堑夹一垒"的构造组合样式不同的是,沂沭断裂带在深部剖面上表现为由沂水—汤头断裂(F2)和昌邑—大店断裂(F4)向上延伸与分叉散开的多条断裂组成"双枝状"构造组合样式.断裂带内被断层切割的界面反射波多呈向上的拱弧形,其构造形迹具有伸展、挤压和走滑并存的特征,推断这些界面为层间滑脱构造,它们指示了沂沭断裂带"多层滑移"构造运动方式.该断裂带不仅切穿了近地表、壳内地质界面,F2、F4断裂还向下切割莫霍面,深入岩石圈地幔,是深达地幔的深大断裂构造带,为地幔热物质的上涌提供了通道,对中生代的岩浆活动和内生成矿具有控制作用.地震剖面西端的铜井金矿成矿与沿F2断裂上侵的铜井杂岩体关系密切;剖面东端的火山机构保存完整,没有明显构造破坏痕迹,据此认为沂沭断裂带左行走滑主要发生在早白垩世青山期以前,其后水平滑移量应不大.从区域地质分布及地震反演结果看,昌邑—大店断裂(F4)明显将山东省分割为鲁西和鲁东两个地质构造单元,因此将其作为区域地质构造分界线是合理的.本项研究结果进一步加深了沂沭断裂带深、浅部结构的认识,为分析研究沂沭断裂带的深部过程和浅部构造响应及对资源环境的影响提供了资料约束.  相似文献   

巴布亚湾两期前陆盆地叠置结构及其形成演化          下载免费PDF全文

王德良  梅廉夫  胡孝林  杨松岭  吴路路  刘昭茜  杨焓  苏珈毅 《地球科学》2021,46(2):405-417

巴布亚湾受澳大利亚板块与太平洋板块高速斜向汇聚的控制,经历了复杂的中、新生代构造演化.前人对巴布亚湾盆地结构构造特征的研究多是局部的、分散的,关于盆地的形成时间和动力学机制仍存在争议.利用覆盖全盆的钻井约束的高精度2D、3D地震资料,精细地刻画了盆地的结构和构造特征,揭示了巴布亚湾发育潘多拉和奥雷两期叠置的前陆盆地.潘多拉前陆盆地是形成于渐新世不整合面之上的晚渐新世-中中新世微型前陆盆地,走向为NNE.奥雷前陆盆地是发育在复杂的裂谷边缘之上的早中新世-现今的周缘前陆盆地,沿着弧形的巴布亚半岛延伸480 km;盆地走向在148°E发生转变,由西部的NW向转为东部的近EW向.潘多拉微前陆盆地被奥雷前陆盆地向南逐渐超覆的沉积地层覆盖,两个前陆盆地走向相互垂直,垂向上形成叠置结构.阐明了巴布亚湾新生代经历三期挤压事件及两期叠置的前陆盆地的形成演化,解决了盆地结构及区域构造演化认识的不足,理清了复杂陆缘环境从伸展到挤压多期构造事件的时序及动力学机制,为澳大利亚板块北缘的板块构造重建提供了盆内证据.   相似文献   

Distribution Prediction of Middle-deep Lacustrine Source Rocks in Eocene Wenchang Formation in the Kaiping Sag,Pearl Mouth Basin     

XIONG Lianqiao  XIE Xiaojun  ZHAO Zhao  ZHANG Chunyu  WANG Long  LIAO Jihu  CAI Lulu  XU Wei 《《地质学报》英文版》2021,95(1):248-258

Oil and gas shows are rich in drilling wells in Kaiping sag,however,large oilfield was still not found in this area.For a long time,it is thought that source rocks were developed in the middle-deep lacustrine facies in the Eocene Wenchang Formation,while there is no source rocks that in middle-deep lacustrine facies have been found in well.Thickness of Wenchang Formation is big and reservoirs with good properties could be found in this formation.Distribution and scale of source rock are significant for further direction of petroleum exploration.Distribution characterization of middle-deep lacustrine facies is the base for source rock research.Based on the sedimentary background,fault activity rate,seismic response features,and seismic attributes were analyzed.No limited classification method and multi-attributes neural network deep learning method were used for predicting of source rock distribution in Wenchang Formation.It is found that during the deposition of lower Wenchang Formation,activity rate of main fault controlling the sub sag sedimentation was bigger than 100 m/Ma,which formed development background for middle-deep lacustrine facies.Compared with the seismic response of middle-deep lacustrine source rocks developed in Zhu I depression,those in Kaiping sag are characterized in low frequency and good continuity.Through RGB frequency decomposition,areas with low frequency are main distribution parts for middle-deep lacustrine facies.Dominant frequency,instantaneous frequency,and coherency attributes of seismic could be used in no limited classification method for further identification of middle-deep lacustrine facies.Based on the limitation of geology knowledge,multi-attributes of seismic were analyzed through neural network deep learning method.Distribution of middle-deep lacustrine facies in the fourth member of Wenchang Formation is oriented from west to east and is the largest.Square of the middle-deep lacustrine facies in that member is 154 km²and the volume is 50 km³.Achievements could be bases for hydrocarbon accumulation study and for exploration target optimization in Kaiping sag.  相似文献   

中国中东部区域TRMM降水产品降尺度研究及其时空特征分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

何其全  史岚  谭璐璐  万逸波  王茜雯 《气象科学》2019,39(3):312-321

该研究以中国中东部区域(17°～50°N,98°～135°E)为研究范围,在前人研究基础上,根据水汽与降水之间的关系,基于MOD05水汽产品,采用偏最小二乘法,对中国中东部区域2001—2010年10 a平均TRMM3B43_V 7月降水产品进行降尺度,旨在得到空间分辨率为1 km×1 km的月降水空间分布。通过比较分析,发现该降尺度模型能大幅提高TRMM产品空间分辨率,估算结果平均相对误差为15.35%,与地面观测较接近,能体现中国中东部区域降水宏观分布趋势,且估算结果精度高于前人基于归一化植被指数(NDVI)的降尺度模型,能满足降水产品的精细化需求。  相似文献   

随机森林算法在全球干旱评估中的应用   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

方秀琴  郭晓萌  袁玲  杨露露  任立良  朱求安 《地球信息科学学报》2021,23(6):1040-1049

干旱是发生频率最高,造成社会、经济损失和生态破坏最严重、最广泛的自然灾害之一,因此对干旱进行可靠、有效的评估十分重要.本文以月平均降水、月平均温度、月最高温度、月最低温度、土壤湿度、蒸散发、NDVI、叶绿素荧光等作为解释变量,以基于SPI的干旱等级作为目标变量,采用随机森林算法,以2007-2012年的数据作为训练数据...  相似文献   

Machine learning for pore-water pressure time-series prediction: Application of recurrent neural networks     

Xin Wei  Lulu Zhang  Hao-Qing Yang  Limin Zhang  Yang-Ping Yao 《地学前缘(英文版)》2021,12(1):453-467

Knowledge of pore-water pressure(PWP)variation is fundamental for slope stability.A precise prediction of PWP is difficult due to complex physical mechanisms and in situ natural variability.To explore the applicability and advantages of recurrent neural networks(RNNs)on PWP prediction,three variants of RNNs,i.e.,standard RNN,long short-term memory(LSTM)and gated recurrent unit(GRU)are adopted and compared with a traditional static artificial neural network(ANN),i.e.,multi-layer perceptron(MLP).Measurements of rainfall and PWP of representative piezometers from a fully instrumented natural slope in Hong Kong are used to establish the prediction models.The coefficient of determination(R^2)and root mean square error(RMSE)are used for model evaluations.The influence of input time series length on the model performance is investigated.The results reveal that MLP can provide acceptable performance but is not robust.The uncertainty bounds of RMSE of the MLP model range from 0.24 kPa to 1.12 k Pa for the selected two piezometers.The standard RNN can perform better but the robustness is slightly affected when there are significant time lags between PWP changes and rainfall.The GRU and LSTM models can provide more precise and robust predictions than the standard RNN.The effects of the hidden layer structure and the dropout technique are investigated.The single-layer GRU is accurate enough for PWP prediction,whereas a double-layer GRU brings extra time cost with little accuracy improvement.The dropout technique is essential to overfitting prevention and improvement of accuracy.  相似文献   

晚更新世以来古气候与海平面变化在东海地区的响应   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张军强  唐璐璐  邹昊 《海洋湖沼通报》2008,(1):25-31

第四纪特别是晚更新世以来气温的大幅度冷暖变化,导致全球海平面的变化,引起陆架海侵和海退。东海陆架的气候和海平面变化与全球变化基本同步。晚更新世以来,东海陆架随全球气候变化发育多次海进海退旋回。东海陆架上的古河道、古三角洲和潮流沙脊等沉积体系的形成和演化与海平面升降变化存在耦合关系。  相似文献   

The Belt and Road: Geographical pattern and regional risks   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Wu  Shaohong  Liu  Lulu  Liu  Yanhua  Gao  Jiangbo  Dai  Erfu  Feng  Aiqing  Wang  Wentao 《地理学报(英文版)》2019,29(4):483-495

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Building the Belt and Road is initiatives of China to promote win-win international cooperation in the new era, aiming at green, health, intellect and peace and...  相似文献   

Temporal-Spatial Variation of Surface Suspended Matter and Controlling Factors in the Inner Shelf of the East China Sea in Winter     

MIN Jianxiong  LI Guangxue  DING Dong  QIAO Lulu  MA Yanyan  YANG Gang  ZHANG Yaqi  ZHANG Lei  LI Shuhao 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2019,(1):9-19

Based on the observed surface suspended matter in the East China Sea in February 2007 and June 2015, an empirical model was established using L1 b's band 4 data to retrieve surface suspended matter from the Moderate Resolution Imagine Spectroradiometer Terra imagery. The squared correlation coefficient is 0.8358, and the root mean square error is 0.4285 mg L-1. The model reflects the distribution characteristics of surface suspended matter in the inner shelf of the East China Sea. In this paper, the satellite images of the study area were retrieved in January from 2001 to 2015, and the monthly distribution of surface suspended matter were obtained. The inter-annual distribution of the study area is similar, and the concentration of surface suspended matter is higher near the shore than offshore. A large amount of surface suspended matter is transported southeast under the influence of Zhejiang and Fujian coastal current and Taiwan warm current. Only a small amount of surface suspension can reach the Kuroshio area. The surface suspended matter concentration changes obviously near the estuary because of the effect of differences in the flux of the Yangtze River. Meanwhile, winter monsoon, temperature front, El Ni?o events, and other factors affect the distribution of surface suspended matter in 100 m isobath to coastal water but minimally influence the distribution in 100 m isobath to deep sea.  相似文献