A common methodology for risk assessment and mapping for south-east Europe: an application for heat wave risk in Romania     

Papathoma-Koehle  Maria  Promper  Catrin  Bojariu  Roxana  Cica  Roxana  Sik  Andr&#;s  Perge  Kinga  L&#;szl&#;  Peter  Czikora  Erika Bal&#;zs  Dumitrescu  Alexandru  Turcus  Cosmin  Birsan  Marius-Victor  Velea  Liliana  Glade  Thomas 《Natural Hazards》2016,81(1):89-115

This paper reports on a quantitative estimation of the risk to residents at the toe of Mount Albino, a carbonatic relief covered by shallow deposits of pyroclastic soils, which threatens the municipality of Nocera Inferiore (southern Italy). The quantitative risk analysis (QRA) focuses on one type of mass transport phenomena typical for the context at hand, namely the hyperconcentrated flows. The methodological approach includes three main steps: hazard analysis, consequence analysis and risk estimation. Based on historical incident data, the hazard analysis makes use of a high-resolution digital terrain model and advanced models that incorporate relevant geological and geotechnical input data collected via in situ investigations and laboratory tests. The consequence analysis takes into account information on the exposed persons (age, gender) and their vulnerability. The estimated risk to life is calculated at the individual level (risk to the average and most exposed person). The reported procedure is one of the first QRA’s applications to instabilities which potentially affect natural slopes in Italy, and it was successfully used as technical basis for a public participatory process in Nocera Inferiore, designed and developed to support decisions about risk mitigation measures.  相似文献   

Assessing drought and drought-related wildfire risk in Kanjiza,Serbia: the SEERISK methodology     

Vladimir Marković  Imre Nagy  Andras Sik  Kinga Perge  Peter Laszlo  Maria Papathoma-Köhle  Catrin Promper  Thomas Glade 《Natural Hazards》2016,80(2):709-726

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Multilayer-exposure maps as a basis for a regional vulnerability assessment for landslides: applied in Waidhofen/Ybbs,Austria     

Promper  C.  Glade  T. 《Natural Hazards》2016,82(1):111-127

Assessments of natural hazards and risks are beneficial for sustainable planning and natural hazard risk management. On a regional scale, quantitative hazard and risk assessments are data intensive and methods developed are difficult to transfer to other regions and to analyse different periods in a given region. Such transfers could be beneficial regarding factors of global change influencing the patterns of natural hazard and risk. The aim of this study was to show the landslide exposure of different elements at risk in one map, e.g. residential buildings and critical infrastructure, as a solid basis for an in-depth analysis of vulnerability and consequent risk. This enables to overcome the data intensive assessments on a regional scale and highlights the potential hotspots for risk analysis. The study area is located in the alpine foreland in Lower Austria and comprises around 112 km². The results show the different levels of exposure, as well as how many layers of elements at risk are affected. Several exposure hotspots can be delineated throughout the study area. This allows a decision on in-depth analysis of hotspots not only by indicated locations but also by a rank resulting from the different layers of incorporated elements at risk.  相似文献