Baltic cod recruitment - the impact of climate variability on key processes   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Koster  Friedrich W.; Mollmann  Christian; Hinrichsen  Hans-Harald; Wieland  Kai; Tomkiewicz  Jonna; Kraus  Gerd; Voss  Rudiger; Makarchouk  Andrei; MacKenzie  Brian R.; St. John  Michael A.; Schnack  Dietrich; Rohlf  Norbert; Linkowski  Tomasz; Beyer  Jan E. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2005,62(7):1408-1425

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A climate change simulation starting from 1935     

U Cubasch  G C Hegerl  A Hellbach  H Höck  U Mikolajewicz  B D Santer  R Voss 《Climate Dynamics》1995,11(2):71-84

Due to restrictions in the available computing resources and a lack of suitable observational data, transient climate change experiments with global coupled ocean-atmosphere models have been started from an initial state at equilibrium with the present day forcing. The historical development of greenhouse gas forcing from the onset of industrialization until the present has therefore been neglected. Studies with simplified models have shown that this cold start error leads to a serious underestimation of the anthropogenic global warming. In the present study, a 150-year integration has been carried out with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model starting from the greenhouse gas concentration observed in 1935, i.e., at an early time of industrialization. The model was forced with observed greenhouse gas concentrations up to 1985, and with the equivalent C0₂ concentrations stipulated in Scenario A (Business as Usual) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change from 1985 to 2085. The early starting date alleviates some of the cold start problems. The global mean near surface temperature change in 2085 is about 0.3 K (ca. 10%) higher in the early industrialization experiment than in an integration with the same model and identical Scenario A greenhouse gas forcing, but with a start date in 1985. Comparisons between the experiments with early and late start dates show considerable differences in the amplitude of the regional climate change patterns, particularly for sea level. The early industrialization experiment can be used to obtain a first estimate of the detection time for a greenhouse-gas-induced near-surface temperature signal. Detection time estimates are obtained using globally and zonally averaged data from the experiment and a long control run, as well as principal component time series describing the evolution of the dominant signal and noise modes. The latter approach yields the earliest detection time (in the decade 1990–2000) for the time-evolving near-surface temperature signal. For global-mean temperatures or for temperatures averaged between 45°N and 45°S, the signal detection times are in the decades 2015–2025 and 2005–2015, respectively. The reduction of the cold start error in the early industrialization experiment makes it possible to separate the near-surface temperature signal from the noise about one decade earlier than in the experiment starting in 1985. We stress that these detection times are only valid in the context of the coupled model's internally-generated natural variability, which possibly underestimates low frequency fluctuations and does not incorporate the variance associated with changes in external forcing factors, such as anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, solar variability or volcanic dust.  相似文献   

The Tornquist Zone, a north east inclining lithospheric transition at the south western margin of the Baltic Shield: Revealed through a nonlinear teleseismic tomographic inversion     

P. Voss  K. Mosegaard  S. Gregersen  TOR Working Group 《Tectonophysics》2006,416(1-4):151

From July 1996 to August 1997 the TOR project operated 130 seismographs in North Germany, Denmark and South Sweden, with the aim of collecting signals from local, regional and teleseismic earthquakes. This data set is particularly interesting since the seismic antenna crosses the most significant geological boundary in Europe, the Tornquist Zone, which in the northern part is the border between the Baltic Shield and the younger European lithosphere. Previous studies have shown significant physical changes in the crust and upper mantle across this transition zone, including two independent teleseismic tomographic studies of the TOR data set. But these two studies disagree on the orientation of the slope of the transition. Both studies used an iterative linearized inversion method. We will in this work Preprint submitted to Elsevier Science 27 July 2005 present an inversion based on Bayesian statistics, where the solution space is examined in order to study a very large number of tomographic solutions and to examine the solution uniqueness and uncertainty. The method is applied to measurements of 3345 relative teleseismic P-phase travel times from 48 teleseismic earthquakes with good azimuthal coverage with respect to the great circle arc of the TOR array. We find the lithospheric transition to be a north east inclination of around 30° to 45° off vertical.  相似文献   

Simulation of the influence of solar radiation variations on the global climate with an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model   总被引：9，自引：4，他引：9  

U. Cubasch  R. Voss  G. C. Hegerl  J. Waszkewitz  T. J. Crowley 《Climate Dynamics》1997,13(11):757-767

 Two simulations with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation model have been carried out to study the potential impact of solar variability on climate. The Hoyt and Schatten estimate of solar variability from 1700 to 1992 has been used to force the model. Results indicate that the near-surface temperature simulated by the model is dominated by the long periodic solar fluctuations (Gleissberg cycle), with global mean temperatures varying by about 0.5 K. Further results indicate that solar variability and an increase in greenhouse gases both induce to a first approximation a comparable pattern of surface temperature change, i.e., an increase of the land-sea contrast. However, the solar-induced warming pattern in annual means and summer is more centered over the subtropics, compared to a more uniform warming associated with the increase in greenhouse gases. The observed temperature rise over the most recent 30 and 100 years is larger than the trend in the solar forcing simulation during the same period, indicating a strong likelihood that, if the model forcing and response is realistic, other factors have contributed to the observed warming. Since the pattern of the recent observed warming agrees better with the greenhouse warming pattern than with the solar variability response, it is likely that one of these factors is the increase of the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. Received: 14 October 1996 / Accepted: 9 May 1997  相似文献   

Editors’ message     

Clifford I. Voss  William E. Wilson 《Hydrogeology Journal》1997,5(1):2-2

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Editors’ preface     

John E. Moore  Clifford I. Voss  William E. Wilson 《Hydrogeology Journal》1994,2(1):3-5

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Finite-Difference Grid for a Doublet Well in an Anisotropic Aquifer   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Robert T. Miller  Clifford I. Voss 《Ground water》1986,24(4):490-496

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Continent–ocean transition and voluminous magmatic underplating derived from P-wave velocity modelling of the East Greenland continental margin     

Max Voss  Wilfried Jokat 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,170(2):580-604

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A1 moonquakes,problems of determining their epicenters and mechanisms     

R. Meissner  J. Voss  H. J. Kaestle 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1973,6(3-4):292-303

Although now four seismic stations are operating on the Moon the determination of epicenters and mechanisms of moonquakes is still problematic. On the Moon no decoupling of compressional, transverse, and surface waves takes place, no clear first arrivals can be found, and coherence between vertical and horizontal components of a seismograph station is poor. New methods of locating epicenters are presented. They consist of a statistical analysis of the first arrival groups and correlation of components of tidal forces to arrival times in relation to perigee. Certain regions of the Moon, as for instance the Eastern boundary of Mare Nubium, can be considered highly suspicious as possible source region; others have to be ruled out as here triggering by tidal stress seems highly improbable. From various possible mechanisms a connection with a degassing of the Moon seems to offer an acceptable explanation.  相似文献   

Learning from (small) disasters     

Martin Voss  Klaus Wagner 《Natural Hazards》2010,55(3):657-669

In this article, disasters are understood as processes that have different impacts on social routines in terms of scale, scope and duration. The extent of adaptive processes in society can provide the ground for a rough classification of disaster types. Such classification has, on the one hand, practical and analytical advantages. On the other hand, they harbour the danger of overlooking transitions of scale and discourage comprehensive scale-related learning forms. Based on the disaster scale by Fischer (Int J Mass Emerg Disasters 1:91–107, 2003), flash floods in mountain rivers and torrents are described as extreme emergencies or small-town disasters. Three given examples will clearly show that learning rarely takes place within an institutional setting that is subjected to small disasters, because the stakeholder’s focus remains on only one level. Therefore, we propose to implement a system of self-organised and scale-independent learning, so called deutero learning, within the political subsystem. Following a damaging event, participative processes that involve all levels should be initialised. Their task would be to assess the combination of causes and draw conclusions for mitigation measures. An aggregation of these assessments would help the responsible political subsystems to adapt the current natural disasters policy to the changing environmental conditions.  相似文献