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In this paper, we compare and contrast a Bayesian spatially varying coefficient process (SVCP) model with a geographically
weighted regression (GWR) model for the estimation of the potentially spatially varying regression effects of alcohol outlets
and illegal drug activity on violent crime in Houston, Texas. In addition, we focus on the inherent coefficient shrinkage
properties of the Bayesian SVCP model as a way to address increased coefficient variance that follows from collinearity in
GWR models. We outline the advantages of the Bayesian model in terms of reducing inflated coefficient variance, enhanced model
flexibility, and more formal measuring of model uncertainty for prediction. We find spatially varying effects for alcohol
outlets and drug violations, but the amount of variation depends on the type of model used. For the Bayesian model, this variation
is controllable through the amount of prior influence placed on the variance of the coefficients. For example, the spatial
pattern of coefficients is similar for the GWR and Bayesian models when a relatively large prior variance is used in the Bayesian
model.
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Lance A. Waller Li Zhu Carol A. Gotway Dennis M. Gorman Paul J. Gruenewald 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2007,21(5):573-588
Past studies consistently indicate measurable local associations between alcohol distribution and the incidence of violence.
These results, coupled with measurements of spatial correlation, reveal the importance of spatial analysis in the study of
the interaction of alcohol and violence. While studies increasingly incorporate spatial correlation among model residuals
to improve precision and reduce bias, to date, most analyses assume associations that are constant and independent of location,
an assumption coming under increasing scrutiny in the quantitative geography literature. In this paper, we review and contrast
two approaches for the estimation of and inference for spatially heterogeneous effects (i.e., associative factors whose impacts on the outcome of interest vary throughout geographic space). Specifically,
we provide an in-depth comparison of “geographically weighted regression” models (allowing covariate effects to vary in space
but only allowing relatively ad hoc inference) with “variable coefficient” models (allowing varying effects via spatial random
fields and providing model-based estimation and inference, but requiring more advanced computational techniques). We compare
the approaches with respect to underlying conceptual structures, computational implementation, and inferential output. We
apply both approaches to violent crime, illegal drug arrest, and alcohol distribution data from Houston, Texas and compare
results in light of the differing methodological structures of the two approaches. 相似文献
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R.I. Waller A.J. Russell T.A.G.P. van Dijk & Ó. Knudsen 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2001,83(1-2):29-38
During the initial stages of the November 1996 jökulhlaup at Skeiðarárjökull, Iceland, floodwaters burst onto the glacier surface via a series of fractures. This supraglacial drainage led to the formation of a number of distinct ice surface depressions, one of which is investigated in detail. The morphology and structural characteristics of this feature are described, as well as the sedimentology of an associated assemblage of debris-filled fractures. This work suggests that debris-charged subglacial floodwaters travelled up to the glacier surface, where supraglacial flow occurred initially via an extensive network of fractures, orientated parallel to the glacier margin. Supraglacial discharge became progressively more focused into a series of discrete outlets, leading to the mechanical erosion of a number of depressions on the glacier surface. The associated transfer of subglacially derived floodwaters to high levels within the glacier resulted in the rapid entrainment of large volumes of sediment which may influence the patterns, processes and products of ice-marginal sedimentation in the future. 相似文献
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Aidan A. Parkes Richard I. Waller Ian G. Stimpson Keith T. Mason 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》2009,120(4):233-73
The Bar Hill-Whitchurch-Wrexham Morainic Complex is a large-scale glacial landform thought to represent either the maximum extent or the re-advance of the British-Irish Ice Sheet during the Late Devensian. The origin of the moraine remains uncertain as its key characteristics have not been studied in detail due to a lack of exposures from which its large-scale structure can be determined. The development of new technologies has enabled detailed examination of the topography and internal structure of such large-scale landforms. This paper describes a multi-disciplinary approach involving digital geomorphological mapping using enhanced resolution NextMAP™ digital surface models, geophysical imaging (electrical resistivity tomography) and conventional sedimentological analyses. This combination of techniques is useful for elucidating the origin of a large glacial landform in a region of poor exposure. Digital elevation models such as NextMAP™ offer an efficient and accurate method for landform-mapping, whilst electrical resistivity tomography was able to map the major constituent sediments of the moraine, which had in turn been identified in the single exposure available. Additional geophysical techniques should however be applied to provide further structural data and thereby enable a more detailed interpretation of the moraine's internal structure. Preliminary findings indicate that the moraine is a glaciotectonic landform composed of diamicton and glaciofluvial sediments, an origin consistent with recent suggestions that the Cheshire Plain contained an active ice lobe during the last glacial maximum. 相似文献
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Textural characteristics are a major factor in determining the mechanical behaviour of rocks and in the prediction of performance of rock cutting and drilling equipment. The principal textural characteristics of rocks are grain size, grain shape, grain orientation, relative proportion of grains and matrix material which were herein quantitatively measured using a modern image analysis system. These features resulted in a texture coefficient represented by a single number for each rock specimen. In this study a range of both textural and mechanical data for a range of rock types are given with some of the textural determination methodology. Correlation between textural and physical properties are also highlighted. The results of drilling tests using polycrystalline diamond compact (pin and hybrid) and impregnated diamond core bits in the rocks are presented which demonstrate the influence of rock texture on drillability. The rock texture can be used as a predictive factor for assessing the drillability and cuttability, mechanical and wear performance of rocks. 相似文献
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Evolution of mountain landscapes is controlled by dynamic interactions between erosional processes that vary in efficiency over altitudinal domains. Evaluation of spatial and temporal variations of individual erosion processes can augment our understanding of factors controlling relief and geomorphic development of alpine settings. This study tests the application of detrital apatite (U‐Th)/He thermochronology (AHe) to evaluate variable erosion in small, geologically complex catchments. Detrital grains from glacial and fluvial sediment in a single basin were dated and compared with a bedrock derived age‐elevation relationship to estimate spatial variation in erosion over different climate conditions in the Teton Range, Wyoming. Controls and pitfalls related to apatite quality and yield were fully evaluated to assess this technique. Probability density functions comparing detrital age distributions identify variations in erosional patterns between glacial and fluvial systems and provide insight into how glacial, fluvial, and hillslope processes interact. Similar age distributions representing erosion patterns during glacial and interglacial times suggest the basin may be approaching steady‐state. This also implies that glaciers are limited and no longer act as buzzsaws or produce relief. However, subtle differences in erosional efficiency do exist. The high frequency of apatite cooling ages from high altitudes represents either rapid denudation of peaks and ridges by mass wasting or an artifact of sample quality. A gap in detrital ages near the mean age, or mid‐altitude, indicates the fluvial system is presently transport limited by overwhelming talus deposits. This study confirms that sediment sources can be traced in small basins with detrital AHe dating. It also demonstrates that careful consideration of mineral yield and quality is required, and uniform erosion assumptions needed to extract basin thermal history from detrital ages are not always valid. 相似文献
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Long‐term variability of proglacial groundwater‐fed hydrological systems in an area of glacier retreat,Skeiðarársandur,Iceland 
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下载免费PDF全文 Proglacial groundwater‐fed features, such as seeps, substantially impact proglacial geomorphology, hydrology, and ecology. However, there is a paucity of research on the impacts of climate change and glacier retreat on the extent of these important features. This paper aims to investigate the impact of glacier retreat on proglacial groundwater levels and on the extent of groundwater‐fed seeps. Research has taken place in western Skeiðarársandur, the large proglacial outwash plain of Skeiðarárjökull, a retreating temperate glacier in southeast Iceland. Changes in the extent of proglacial groundwater seeps were mapped using historical aerial photographs from 1986, 1997, and 2012. Proglacial groundwater levels were monitored in shallow boreholes between 2000 and 2012. The western margin of Skeiðarárjökull has retreated approximately 1 km beyond its position in 1986. However, this retreat was punctuated by short periods of readvance. The geomorphology and groundwater systems at the site were substantially impacted by the November 1996 jökulhlaup, whose deposits altered approximately 18% of the area of groundwater seeps. The surface areas of groundwater seeps and lakes in the study area have declined by ~97% between 1986 and 2012. Most of the decline took place after 1997, when the mean annual rate of retreat increased three‐fold. Groundwater levels also declined substantially between 2000 and 2012, although this trend varies spatially. The paper provides a conceptual model of the controls on proglacial shallow groundwater systems. Direct impacts of glacier retreat are suggested as the main cause for the declines in proglacial groundwater levels and in the extent of groundwater seeps. These declines are expected to adversely impact sandur ecology. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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A pollen diagram has been produced from the base of the Caburn (East Sussex) that provides a temporally and spatially precise record of vegetation change on the English chalklands during the mid‐Holocene (ca. 7100 to ca. 3800 cal. yr BP). During this period the slopes above the site appear to have been well‐wooded, with vegetation analogous to modern Fraxinus–Acer–Mercurialis communities in which Tilia was also a prominent constituent. However, scrub and grassland taxa such as Juniperus communis, Cornus sanguinea and Plantago lanceolata are also regularly recorded along with, from ca. 6000 cal. yr BP onwards, species specific to Chalk grassland (e.g. Sanguisorba minor). This supports suggestions that elements of Chalk grassland persisted in lowland England through the Holocene. Such communities are most likely to have occupied the steepest slopes, although the processes that maintained them are unclear. Human interference with vegetation close to the site may have begun as early as ca. 6350 cal. yr BP and initially involved a woodland management practice such as coppicing. From the primary Ulmus decline (ca. 5700 cal. yr BP) onwards, phases of limited clearance accompanied by cereal cultivation occurred. Taxus baccata was an important component of the woodland which regenerated between these phases. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献