As the scale of the power grid becomes larger, the requirements for transmission reliability are getting higher. Due to the large geographical span and the harsh environment of the power transmission line, it has become the most severely affected equipment of the power grid by natural factors. However, the quantitative assessment of transmission line tripping accidents caused by multiple natural hazards has rarely been investigated. In this study, a risk analysis method to probabilistically analyze the tripping accidents of power transmission lines caused by wildfire, lightning, strong wind and ice storm was proposed. The analysis process consists of comprehensively identifying the risk of tripping accidents based on fault tree analysis and dynamically performing the predictive analysis of tripping accident evolution process in transmission line from causes to consequences based on Bayesian network. Critical risk evolution paths corresponding to four natural hazards are determined through a 72-node BN. The source risks of the four critical risk evolution paths are artificial ignition source from the wildfire path, aging from the lightning path, thoughtless of surrounding environment from the strong wind path and wind effect from the ice storm path. The countermeasures of tripping accidents are derived through the source risks and synergy between risks in three scenario analysis. This study is expected to examine the key challenges of risk management in power grid tripping accidents, which provides technical supports for accident preventing, handling and recovering of tripping accidents of the power transmission line according to “scenario–response”-based hazard response strategy.
AbstractFluctuant marine and reservoir water levels are the main failure-inducing factors for embankment slopes. The soft embankment rocks, e.g., red-bed mudstone, eroded by the reservoir water level in the Three Gorges Reservoir area greatly influence the stability of the embankment slopes. In this study, unified strength theory was innovatively applied for damage evaluation and combined with the Weibull distribution to obtain the strength statistics of micro units. Additionally, one damage constitutive model and one damage evolution model considering the initial damage, strain softening and damage weakening were proposed. Then, a series of tests, e.g., modified cyclic wetting and drying test, triaxial compression test and modified numerical simulation test for reservoir embankment red-bed mudstone, were conducted to verify the feasibility of the proposed models. In addition, grey system theory was originally used to evaluate the effects of the Weibull distribution parameters (m and w) and the confining stress on the peak stress. Finally, the proposed model was tentatively applied to the modification of the limit failure height model of the bedded rock slopes. The verification implies that the proposed model results are consistent with the testing results, especially in the simulation of compaction, elastic deformation and strain softening and in the prediction of peak strength. The results from grey system theory analysis indicate that the micro unit strength parameter (w) has the most obvious effect on the strength. Moreover, the modified method based on the damage evolution model for calculating the limit failure height of the bedded rock slopes is conservative. 相似文献