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1.
An empirical orthogonal functions analysis of the onshore flow of moisture along the west coast of southern Africa using NCEP-DOE AMIP II Re-analyses suggests two dominant modes of variability that are linked to (a) variations in the circulation linked with the South Atlantic anticyclone (b) the intensity of the flow that penetrates from the tropical Atlantic. The second mode, referred as the Equatorial Westerly mode, contributes the most to moisture input from the Atlantic onto the subcontinent at tropical latitudes. Substantial correlations in austral summer between the Atlantic moisture flux in the tropics and rainfall over the upper lands surrounding the Congo basin suggest the potential role played by this zonal mode of water vapour transport. Composites for austral summer months when this Equatorial Westerly mode had a particularly strong expression, show an enhanced moisture input at tropical latitudes that feeds into the deep convection occurring over the Congo basin. Sustained meridional energy fluxes result in above normal rainfall east and south of the Congo belt. During years of reduced equatorial westerly moisture flux, a deficit of available humidity occurs in the southern tropics. A concomitant eastward shift of deep convection to the southwest Indian ocean and southeastern Africa, leads to below normal rainfall over the uplands surrounding the Congo basin. 相似文献
2.
The capability of a current state-of-the-art regional climate model for simulating the diurnal and annual cycles of rainfall over a complex subtropical region is documented here. Hourly rainfall is simulated over Southern Africa for 1998–2006 by the non-hydrostatic model weather research and forecasting (WRF), and compared to a network of 103 stations covering South Africa. We used five simulations, four of which consist of different parameterizations for atmospheric convection at a 0.5 × 0.5° resolution, performed to test the physic-dependency of the results. The fifth experiment uses explicit convection over tropical South Africa at a 1/30° resolution. WRF simulates realistic mean rainfall fields, albeit wet biases over tropical Africa. The model mean biases are strongly modulated by the convective scheme used for the simulations. The annual cycle of rainfall is well simulated over South Africa, mostly influenced by tropical summer rainfall except in the Western Cape region experiencing winter rainfall. The diurnal cycle shows a timing bias, with atmospheric convection occurring too early in the afternoon, and causing too abundant rainfall. This result, particularly true in summer over the northeastern part of the country, is weakly physic-dependent. Cloud-resolving simulations do not clearly reduce the diurnal cycle biases. In the end, the rainfall overestimations appear to be mostly imputable to the afternoon hours of the austral summer rainy season, i.e., the periods during which convective activity is intense over the region. 相似文献
3.
Nicolas Fauchereau B. Pohl C. J. C. Reason M. Rouault Y. Richard 《Climate Dynamics》2009,32(4):575-591
A cluster analysis of daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies from 1979 to 2002 over the Southern Africa/Southwest
Indian Ocean (SWIO) region for the November to February season reveals seven robust and statistically well separated recurrent
patterns of large-scale organized convection. Among them are three regimes indicative of well defined tropical–temperate interactions
linking the hinterland parts of Southern Africa to the mid-latitudes of the SWIO. Preferred transitions show a tendency for
an eastward propagation of these systems. Analysis of daily rainfall records for South Africa shows that six of the OLR regimes
are associated with spatially coherent and significant patterns of enhanced or reduced daily rainfall over the country. Atmospheric
anomalies from the NCEP/DOE II reanalysis dataset show that the OLR regimes are associated with either regional or near-global
adjustments of the atmospheric circulation, the three regimes representative of tropical–temperate interactions being in particular
related to a well-defined wave structure encompassing the subtropical and temperate latitudes, featuring strong vertical anomalies
and strong poleward export of momentum in the lee of the location of the cloud-band. The time-series of OLR regimes seasonal
frequency are correlated to distinctive anomaly patterns in the global sea-surface-temperature field, among which are shown
to be those corresponding to El Nino and La Nina conditions. The spatial signature of El Nino Southern Oscillation’s (ENSO)
influence is related to the combination of an increased/decreased frequency of these regimes. It is shown in particular that
the well-known “dipole” in convection anomalies contrasting Southern Africa and the SWIO during ENSO events arises as an effect
of seasonal averaging and is therefore not valid at the synoptic scale. This study also provides a framework to better understand
the observed non-linearities between ENSO and the seasonal convection and rainfall anomalies over the region. 相似文献
4.
5.
Edgar L Andreas James B. Edson Edward C. Monahan Mathieu P. Rouault Stuart D. Smith 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1995,72(1-2):3-52
The part that sea spray plays in the air-sea transfer of heat and moisture has been a controversial question for the last two decades. With general circulation models (GCMs) suggesting that perturbations in the Earth's surface heat budget of only a few W m–2 can initiate major climatic variations, it is crucial that we identify and quantify all the terms in that heat budget. Thus, here we review recent work on how sea spray contributes to the sea surface heat and moisture budgets. In the presence of spray, the near-surface atmosphere is characterized by a droplet evaporation layer (DEL) with a height that scales with the significant-wave amplitude. The majority of spray transfer processes occur within this layer. As a result, the DEL is cooler and more moist than the atmospheric surface layer would be under identical conditions but without the spray. Also, because the spray in the DEL provides elevated sources and sinks for heat and moisture, the vertical heat fluxes are no longer constant with height. We use Eulerian and Lagrangian models and a simple analytical model to study the processes important in spray droplet dispersion and evaporation within this DEL. These models all point to the conclusion that, in high winds (above about 15 m/s), sea spray begins to contribute significantly to the air-sea fluxes of heat and moisture. For example, we estimate that, in a 20-m/s wind, with an air temperature of 20°C, a sea surface temperature of 22°C, and a relative humidity of 80%, the latent and sensible heat fluxes resulting from the spray alone will have magnitudes of order 150 and 15 W/m2, respectively, in the DEL. Finally, we speculate on what fraction of these fluxes rise out of the DEL and, thus, become available to the entire marine boundary layer. 相似文献
6.
Analysis of 149 raingauge series (1946–1988) shows a weak positive correlation between late summer rainfalls (January–March) in tropical southern Africa and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The correlation coefficients have been unstable since World War II. They were close to zero before 1970 and significant thereafter. Before 1970, southern African late summer rainfalls were more specifically correlated with regional patterns of sea surface temperature (SST), mainly over the southwestern Indian Ocean. After 1970, teleconnections with near global SST anomaly patterns, i.e. over the central Pacific and Indian oceans, dominate the regional connections. The increase in the sensitivity of the southern African rainfall to the global SO-related circulation anomalies is simultaneous with the correlation between SOI and more extensive SST anomalies, particularly over the southern Indian Ocean. This feature is part of longer term (decadal), global SST variability, as inferred from statistical analyses. Numerical experiments, using the Météo-France general circulation model ARPEGE-Climat, are performed to test the impact of the observed SST warming in the southern Indian and extratropical oceans during El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on southern African rainfall. Simulated results show that ENSO events, which occurred in the relatively cold background of the pre-1970 period in the southern oceans, had a little effect on southern Africa climatic conditions and atmospheric circulation. By contrast, more recent ENSO events, with warmer SST over the southern oceans, lead to a climatic bipolar pattern between continental southern African and the western Indian Ocean, which is characterized by reduced (enhanced) deep convection and rainfall over the subcontinent (the western Indian Ocean). A weaker subtropical high-pressure belt in the southwestern Indian Ocean is also simulated, along with a reduced penetration of the moist southern Indian Ocean trade winds over the southern African plateau. These results are consistent with the strong droughts observed over all southern Africa during ENSO events since 1970. 相似文献
7.
8.
Moisture exchange between the South Atlantic and southern Africa is examined in this study through zonal moisture transport.
Along the west coast of southern Africa, a multivariate analysis of the zonal flow of moisture computed from NCEP-DOE AMIP
II Re-analyses reveals a primary mode of variability typical of variations in intensity and of the latitudinal migration of
the circulation associated with the midlatitude westerlies and the South Atlantic anticyclone. In austral summer (January–February),
this mode, referred to as the South Atlantic midlatitude mode, is found to be well correlated with rainfall over southern
Africa (i.e. to the south of the upper lands surrounding the Congo basin). Its positive/negative phases are found to correspond
with surface pressures changes over the South Atlantic region in austral summer when the South Atlantic anticyclone is shifted
northward/southward respectively. Such changes are accompanied by dipole-like SST anomalies in the midlatitude South Atlantic
Ocean, while simultaneous SST anomalies with a similar structure are also found over South Indian Ocean regions. In January–February,
positive/negative events linked to the South Atlantic midlatitude mode are marked by meridional shifts (northward/southward)
and weakening/strengthening of the ITCZ over the southern tropics, together with modulations in intensity (weakened/sustained)
of the Angola low, which could act as a tropical source of moisture for Tropical Temperate Troughs (TTTs). In association
with a strengthened/weakened zonal component of the southern extension of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ), this could modulate
the meridional transfer of moisture south of 15°S to the advantage/detriment of Angolan coastal regions, where above/below
rainfall are expected. Variations in the latitudinal position (northward/southward) of the South Atlantic anticyclone, and
thus of the midlatitude westerlies, are also found to reduce/favour moisture advection towards southern Africa subtropics
allowing the southern Indian trades to penetrate less/more over the subcontinent south of 25°S. This would create a situation
where convection processes are inhibited/supported within the SICZ/TTTs region resulting in drier/wetter conditions locally
for positive/negative events respectively. 相似文献
9.
Rainfall Variability and Changes in Southern Africa during the 20th Century in the Global Warming Context 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Rainfall variability and changes in Southern Africa over the 20th century areexamined and their potential links to the global warming discussed. After a shortreview of the main conclusions of various experiments with Global AtmosphericModels (GCM) forced by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases for SouthernAfrica, a study of various datasets documents the observed changes in rainfall featuresat both daily and seasonal time steps through the last century. Investigations of dailyrainfall parameters are so far limited to South Africa. They show that some regionshave experienced a shift toward more extreme rainfall events in recent decades.Investigations of cumulative rainfall anomalies over the summer season do notshow any trend to drier or moister conditions during the century. However, closeexamination reveals that rainfall variability in Southern Africa has experiencedsignificant modifications, especially in the recent decades. Interannual variabilityhas increased since the late 1960s. In particular, droughts became more intense andwidespread. More significantly, teleconnection patterns associated with SouthernAfrican rainfall variability changed from regional before the 70s to near global after,and an increased statistical association to the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is observed. Numerical experiments with a French GCM indicate that these changes in teleconnections could be related to long-term variations in the Sea-Surface-Temperature background, which are part of the observed global warming signal. 相似文献
10.
C. J. C. Reason M. Rouault J.-L. Melice D. Jagadheesha 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2002,80(1-4):19-29
Summary The Southwestern Cape (SWC) region of South Africa is characterized by winter rainfall mainly via cold fronts and by substantial
interannual variability. Evidence is presented that interannual variability in SWC winter rainfall is related to sea-surface
temperature (SST) and sea-ice anomalies in the central South Atlantic and adjoining Southern Ocean and to large scale ocean–atmosphere
interaction in this region. During wet winters, the jet is strengthened just upstream of the SWC and significant cyclonic
anomalies extend from the SW Atlantic over the region. SST tends to be anomalously warm (cool) in the SW Atlantic and SE Atlantic
(central South Atlantic) and sea-ice extent increased in the central South Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. These patterns
favor increased cyclogenesis upstream, a more northward track of midlatitude depressions, local intensification near the SWC
and enhanced rainfall. Roughly the reverse patterns occur during dry winters. Some preliminary results from atmospheric GCM
experiments are presented which help support these findings.
Received November 9, 2001 Revised December 28, 2001 相似文献