What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

David H. Hathaway  Robert M. Wilson 《Solar physics》2004,224(1-2):5-19

The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modern measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio flux, total irradiance, X-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modern measures of solar activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or “Space Climate.” The sunspot record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131± 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period; 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 145 ± 30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70 ± 30 in 2023.  相似文献   

油田开发中后期岩相单元的细分研究   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11  

撒利明  王天琦  师永民  鲁明春  杜文博 《沉积学报》2002,20(4):595-599

油田开发中后期建立在原小层对比和沉积微相基础上的储层地质模型已不能适应调整挖潜和剩余油分布研究的要求,需要在小层划分的基础上,进一步细分到岩相单元。本文以大庆长垣南部葡北油田葡I组油层为例提出岩相单元的概念,通过现代沉积研究论证岩相单元细分的可行性,结合密井网测井曲线分析旋回性、隔夹层分布的稳定性及目前经济技术和采油工艺等,探讨细分单元的基本原则。最后提出岩相单元细分的基本方法。  相似文献   

Strike-slip fault bridge fluid pumping mechanism: insights from field-based palaeostress analysis and numerical modelling     

Michal Nem ok  Andreas Henk  Rodney A. Gayer  Sara Vandycke  Tanya M. Hathaway 《Journal of Structural Geology》2002,24(12)

We present a finite-element study of stress perturbation in evolving compressive and extensional strike-slip fault bridges. The results are compared with a fracture study of a compressive bridge at St Donats, UK. Horizontally interbedded calcareous mudstone and bioclastic calcilutite at St Donats have a distinct vertical permeability anisotropy. This sedimentary sequence behaves as a set of horizontal aquifers. The fluid flow in these aquifers is sensitive to mean stress gradients. Paleostress analysis of field fracture data, verified by finite-element modelling, indicates a rotation of σ₁ towards parallelism with boundary faults inside the growing compressive bridge. Boundary faults and bridge faults recorded numerous fluid flow events. The modelled mean stress pattern shows a regional maximum within the bridge and local maxima/minima pairs at boundary fault tips.Finite-element modelling of an extensional bridge indicates that σ₃ rotates towards parallelism with boundary faults. The mean stress pattern is similar to the pattern in compressive bridge but with maxima and minima locations interchanged. The stress patterns are reestablished by each stress build-up preceding the rupturation of the boundary faults throughout the development stages of strike-slip fault bridges. Mean stress gradients developed pre-failure control the fluid flow in fractures of the strike-slip fault system at and after the end of each stress build-up and the fluid flow in boundary faults post-failure. Fracture reactivation and new fracture generation within an evolving bridge is a process consisting of multiple successive events that retain the storage capacity of the bridge. Rupture and sealing of the main bounding-faults is a step-wise process that opens and closes fluid conduits between areas with different pressures.  相似文献   

Survey of Microbial Populations in Buried-Valley Aquifer Sediments from Northeastern Kansas   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

James L. Sinclair  Stephen J. Randtke  Jane E. Denne  Lawrence R. Hathaway  William C. Ghiorse 《Ground water》1990,28(3):369-377

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A uvbyβ photometric analysis of the Monoceros star‐forming field     

N. Kaltcheva  A. Kuchera  C. Hathaway 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2010,331(4):384-396

This investigation presents a new analysis of the spatial distribution of the bright early‐type stars in the field of Northern Monoceros. A database of all O–B9 stars with available uvbyβ photometry is collated and a homogeneous distance scale is established for the clusters and layers of field stars. We provide revised distances for NGC 2264 and NGC 2244 of 833±38 (s.e.) pc and 1585±60 (s.e.) pc, respectively. We present arguments that there might be substructures in the clusters projected along the line of sight. According to the present sample the classical Mon OB2 association at 1.6 kpc is represented by a relatively compact group at 1.26 kpc in the vicinity of NGC 2244 and a layer of massive stars located between 1.5 and 3 kpc (© 2010 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)  相似文献   

全球碳酸锂贸易格局与供应危机传播研究     

撒兴昌  高天明  张艳 《地球学报》2023,44(2):341-350

随着新能源产业的快速发展, 全球碳酸锂贸易量逐渐增长, 但其出口集中于少数国家, 这意味着全球碳酸锂供应存在一定的风险。为了深入了解全球碳酸锂贸易格局演变、供应危机传播路径及影响, 本文构建了2000—2021年全球碳酸锂贸易网络和级联失效模型, 概述了主要出口国贸易流向和贸易格局演变过程, 并模拟了不同供应危机来源的雪崩规模、传播路径及其影响。我们得到: (1)20多年来全球碳酸锂贸易集中度逐渐增加, 出口前三位国家保持稳定, 而主要进口大国变化明显, 贸易格局已由南美供应全球转变为南美供应东亚; (2)碳酸锂贸易供应危机的影响范围逐渐扩大, 间接传播逐渐占据主导地位; (3)智利供应危机对中日韩的影响程度逐渐扩大, 但对欧洲的影响时间最长; 阿根廷和中国的雪崩规模在上升、传播次数增加, 而美国则相反。本文将贸易格局演变与危机传播结合, 明确了全球碳酸锂主要贸易国智利、阿根廷、中国、德国等作为供应危机来源的影响程度及其传播路径。以上分析结果将有利于维护全球碳酸锂贸易稳定和主要贸易国采取应对策略缓解供应危机。  相似文献   

EVALUATION OF TWO FRACTAL METHODS FOR MAGNETOGRAM IMAGE ANALYSIS     

Stark  B.  Adams  M.  Hathaway  D. H.  Hagyard  M. J. 《Solar physics》1997,174(1-2):297-309

Fractal and multifractal techniques have been applied to various types of solar data to study the fractal properties of sunspots as well as the distribution of photospheric magnetic fields and the role of random motions on the solar surface in this distribution. Other research includes the investigation of changes in the fractal dimension as an indicator for solar flares. Here we evaluate the efficacy of two methods for determining the fractal dimension of an image data set: the Differential Box Counting scheme and a new method, the Jaenisch scheme. To determine the sensitivity of the techniques to changes in image complexity, various types of constructed images are analyzed. In addition, we apply this method to solar magnetogram data from Marshall Space Flight Center's vector magnetograph.  相似文献   

Spherical harmonic analysis of steady photospheric flows     

David H. Hathaway 《Solar physics》1987,108(1):1-20

Steady photospheric flows can be represented by a spectrum of spherical harmonic modes. A technique is described in which full disc doppler velocity measurements are analysed using the spherical harmonic functions to determine the characteristics of this spectrum and the nature of these flows. Synthetic data is constructed for testing this technique. This data contains limb shift, rotation, differential rotation, meridional circulation, supergranules, giant cells and various levels of noise.The data is analysed in several steps. First, the limb shift is calculated by finding the average velocity in concentric rings about disc center. A polynomial representation of the limb shift is then removed from the data. Secondly, the rotation profile is calculated by finding an average slope in the velocity across the disc at each latitude position. This rotation profile is fit with Legendre polynomials and removed from the data. The third step is to find the meridional circulation by calculating the spherical harmonic transform for the axisymmetric poloidal modes and correcting for the effects of the limb shift analysis. The final step is to calculate the full spectrum of spherical harmonic components for the convective flows. Supergranules are separated from giant cells by spectral filtering for high (l >32) and low (l <32) wavenumbers, respectively.Some information about the spectrum is lost because only one hemisphere is seen, only the line-of-sight velocity is measured and the measurements contain noise. The lack of information about the motions on the backside of the Sun produces a broad smearing of the spectrum into nearby modes. The lack of information about the transverse velocity component produces a mixing between modes whose longitudinal wavenumbers differ by two and between the poloidal and toroidal components with the same wavenumber. In spite of this mode mixing much can be learned from this analysis. Solar rotation and differential rotation can be accurately measured and monitored for secular changes. Meridional circulations with small amplitudes can be measured and monitored and giant cells can be separated from supergranules.  相似文献   

Simulating photospheric Doppler velocity fields     

Hathaway  David H. 《Solar physics》1988,117(2):329-341

A method is described for constructing artificial data that realistically simulate photospheric velocity fields. The velocity fields include rotation, differential rotation, meridional circulation, giant cell convection, supergranulation, convective limb shift, p-mode oscillations, and observer motion. Data constructed by this method can be used for testing algorithms designed to extract and analyze these velocity fields in real Doppler velocity data.  相似文献   

A Three-Dimensional Mixing Cell Solute Transport Model and Its Application     

Bhasker K. Rao  Deborah L. Hathaway 《Ground water》1989,27(4):509-516

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