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1 INTRODUCTIONThat the radar data are reasonably ingested into theassimilation analysis system to improve the analysisquality and prediction precision is one of the problemsmeteorologists currently try to resolve. Many scholarshave already obtained some r… 相似文献
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用卡尔曼滤波预报南海热带气旋路径的试验 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
利用卡尔曼滤波方法预报南海热带气旋路径,发现采用卡尔曼滤波可以大大地降低预报误差,提高预测模型的预报能力。 相似文献
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THE ANALYSIS ON THE STATISTICAL CHARACTER OF QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER WINDS AND STRONG WIND FREQUENCY USING REMOTE SENSOR DATA FROM QUIKSCAT 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
1 INTRODUCTION Most of the conventional sea surface wind data are measurements from ships, buoys and islands, with coverage and spatial resolution far below the requirements of research and application. At present, due to limited understanding of physical processes and efficient exploitation of data, numerical prediction models have not been used as they should be, although routine procedures are able to give sea surface wind fields at the intervals of 6 hours. With the development of sp… 相似文献
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刘春霞 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2004,10(1):79-86
1 INTRODUCTION It is doubtless that TCs making landfalls on Guangdong are one of the important aspects of the research on and prediction of short-term climate changes for the province. With regard to the climate patterns of TCs motion and factors governin… 相似文献
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1998年5月23~24日暴雨过程的Q矢量分析 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
本文选取1998年5月23日00时(GMT,下同)到5月24日23时的暴雨过程。时间长度为1998年5月22日00时到5月25日00时。采用非地转Q矢量表达式,计算了100~125°E、15~35°N区域内,从1000到50hPa20层Q矢量及Q矢量散度,来对此次暴雨过程进行诊断分析。1 暴雨过程概述 由图1可以看出,此次暴雨过程主要集中在西江流域和珠江三角洲,粤东在24日出现暴雨。分析逐时降水量图和24小时降水量分布图,可以看到整个暴雨过程可分为两个阶段:第一个阶段降水主要指23日00~23时… 相似文献
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引 言 太阳与天气、气候关系的研究,最早可追朔到1801年天文学家W.Herschel,在他的文章中提到:“当太阳黑子较少时,地面上的雨量也少…”。1852年天文学家Wolf研究了苏黎世城历史上气象要素和黑子相对数的相关关系,发现:“当太阳黑子数多时,苏黎世地面气候较干燥,农业获丰收;而当太阳黑子数少时,气候则较潮湿,常有暴风雨造成农业上的灾害”。近10年来,随着短期气候变化预测的迅速发展,太阳与气候的研究也再度活跃起来。 广东省的天气预报分析经验表明,副高的强度、位置与广东省前汛期降水量的偏多或… 相似文献
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基于站点观测数据的气温空间化方法评述 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
基于统计学的插值方法是地理学、生态学领域研究气温空间化的主要方法之一,对获取精细化气温数据进行生态模拟具有重要意义。结合国内外气温空间插值的主要研究成果,对常用气温空间化方法进行了归纳、对比,探讨各种方法的适用性和不足之处,从而为涉及气温空间化的具体研究提供一定的参考,并探讨了各类方法优化的方向。不同方法的对比分析结果表明:各种气温空间化方法各有所长,在具体的应用中都取得过较好的效果,但并不存在普适性的方法,在实际应用时必须针对研究区域具体的地理特征进行方法适用性验证或对各类方法中的具体参数进行改进,才能实现区域气温的空间最优化模拟。根据气温场的物理分布特征,结合GIS技术,考虑地形等更多的相关因子以提高气温分布微观细节的模拟精度是未来重要的发展趋势。 相似文献
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Following previous studies of the rainfall forecast in Shenzhen owing to landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs), a nonparametric statistical scheme based on the classification of the landfalling TCs is applied to analyze and forecast the rainfall induced by landfalling TCs in the coastal area of Guangdong province, China. All the TCs landfalling with the distance less than 700 kilometers to the 8 coastal stations in Guangdong province during 1950—2013 are categorized according to their landfalling position and intensity. The daily rainfall records of all the 8 meteorological stations are obtained and analyzed. The maximum daily rainfall and the maximum 3 days' accumulated rainfall at the 8 coastal stations induced by each category of TCs during the TC landfall period(a couple of days before and after TC landfalling time) from 1950 to 2013 are computed by the percentile estimation and illustrated by boxplots. These boxplots can be used to estimate the rainfall induced by landfalling TC of the same category in the future. The statistical boxplot scheme is further coupled with the model outputs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) to predict the rainfall induced by landfalling TCs along the coastal area. The TCs landfalling in south China from 2014 to 2017 and the corresponding rainfall at the 8 stations area are used to evaluate the performance of these boxplots and coupled boxplots schemes. Results show that the statistical boxplots scheme and coupled boxplots scheme can perform better than ECMWF model in the operational rainfall forecast along the coastal area in south China. 相似文献
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In this paper,the observational data from Marine and Meteorological Observation Platform(MMOP)at Bohe,Maoming and buoys located in Shanwei and Maoming are used to study the characteristics of air-sea temperature and specific humidity difference and the relationship between wind and wave with the tropical cyclones over the South China Sea(SCS).The heat and momentum fluxes from eddy covariance measurement(EC)are compared with these fluxes calculated by the COARE 3.0 algorithm for Typhoon Koppu.The results show that at the developing and weakening stages of Koppu,both these differences between the sea surface and the near-surface atmosphere from the MMOP are negative,and data from the buoys also indicate that the differences are negative between the sea surface and near-surface atmosphere on the right rear portion of tropical cyclones(TCs)Molave and Chanthu.However,the differences are positive on the left front portion of Molave and Chanthu.These positive differences suggest that the heat flux is transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere,thus intensifying and maintaining the two TCs.The negative differences indicate that the ocean removes heat fluxes from the atmosphere,thus weakening the TCs.The wind-wave curves of TCs Molave and Chanthu show that significant wave height increases linearly with 2-min wind speed at 10-m height when the wind speed is less than 25 m/s,but when the wind speed is greater than 25 m/s,the significant wave height increases slightly with the wind speed.By comparing the observed sensible heat,latent heat,and friction velocity from EC with these variables from COARE 3.0 algorithm,a great bias between the observed and calculated sensible heat and latent heat fluxes is revealed,and the observed friction velocity is found to be almost the same as the calculated friction velocity. 相似文献