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A Method of Initial Vortex Relocation and Numerical Simulation Experiments on Tropical Cyclone Track 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:1
Using the technique of smooth filtering and cylindrical filtering, the initial vortex circulation and large-scale environmental field were separated from the background field. Then the separated initial vortex circulation was translated and reinserted in the location where it was observed. This led to the determination of a method of initial vortex relocation. For seven tropical cyclones at 23 points of measurement time in the years of 2006 and 2007, two schemes, either directly adding a tropical cyclone bogus model in the background or adding it after the relocation of the initial vortex in the background field, were employed. Simulation experiments were compared. The results showed that the mean errors of the simulated tropical cyclone tracks at 24 and 48 hours were both smaller with the scheme of adding tropical cyclone bogus model after the relocation of the initial vortex in the background field. The relocation method of the initial vortex decreases the error caused by the deviation of the initial tropical cyclone location in tropical cyclone models. The relocation method is conducive to improving the track forecast of tropical cyclone models and has a good perspective for operational application. 相似文献
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A continuous heavy rain visited Guangdong province during June 18-25, 2005 (named Heavy Rain 200506, HR200506) and had resulted in enormous economic loss. The ageostropic Q vectors, θse,meridional circulation, computed from the NCEP reanalysis, and TBB are used to study the rainfall processes. The results indicated that a convective system moved northwards from the South China Sea (SCS)and stayed in Guangdong for several days, which was a direct cause of HR200506. The process is a result of the activity of the South China Sea summer monsoon. There were two rainbands of HR200506 in Guangdong. One laid in the north of Guangdong that produced frontal rainfall; another situated on the south of Guangdong which produced monsoon rainfall. 相似文献
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岛屿地形和对流凝结潜热对登陆台风"黄蜂"影响的数值研究 总被引:11,自引:6,他引:5
采用广州有限区域数值预报模式,以登陆台风"黄蜂"(0214号)为例,研究海南岛屿地形和对流凝结潜热对登陆台风"黄蜂"的影响.结果表明,台风"黄蜂"从海南岛东侧附近经过时,海南岛屿地形对登陆台风"黄蜂"的移动路径影响不明显,但是对海南岛附近的降水有明显影响,模式中有无对流凝结潜热加热对台风"黄蜂"的移动路径和降水等均有明显的影响. 相似文献
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海温变化对台风路径的影响 总被引:8,自引:2,他引:8
在台风模式中采用周平均海温和多年的月平均海温,对一些台风个例进行了比较,分析了数值模式中影响台风路径的海温因子变化对台风移动路径的影响。 相似文献
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To investigate the values of 10-m drag coefficient (CD) in different coastal areas under the influence of tropical cyclones, the present study used the observational data from four towers in different coastal areas of the South China Sea (SCS) during six tropical cyclone (TC) passages, and employed the eddy covariance method and the flux profile method. The analysis of footprint showed that the fluxes at Zhizai Island (ZZI), Sanjiao Island (SJI) and Donghai Island (DHI) were influenced basically by the ocean, and the flux at Shangyang Town (SYT) was influenced mainly by the land. The results showed that the dependence relationships of CD on 10-m wind speed (U10) in four different coastal areas under the influence of TCs were different. CD at ZZI and SJI initially increased and then decreased as U10 increased, similar to the pattern over the ocean. CD at ZZI and SJI represented the values over shallow water with seawater depths of ~7 m and ~2 m, respectively. Moreover, the critical wind speed at which CD peaked gradually decreased as the seawater depth became shallower in the coastal areas. CD at DHI and SYT decreased monotonously as U10 increased, similar to the pattern over the land. CD at DHI represented the value over the transition zone from shallow water to coastal land, and CD at SYT represented the value over the coastal land. Meanwhile, the eddy covariance method and the flux profile method were compared at ZZI and SYT during TC passages. It was found that their CD values obtained by the two methods were close. Finally, the parameterizations of observed u* and CD as a function of U10 over four different coastal areas were given under the influence of high winds. These parameterizations of observed C may be used in high-resolution numerical models for landfalling TC forecast. 相似文献
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采用准地转的正压模式, 研究了无非绝热加热时地形和边界层摩擦对登陆热带气旋路径和强度的影响.结果表明: 地形作用对登陆热带气旋西北移动路径的影响比较明显, 而对登陆热带气旋强度的影响不明显; 边界层摩擦可以通过改变热带气旋X方向上和Y方向上的移动速度以及改变热带气旋水平环流结构对登陆热带气旋西北移动路径产生一定的影响, 边界层摩擦对登陆热带气旋强度的影响非常明显, 其中摩擦是造成登陆热带气旋强度迅速减弱的一个重要因素. 相似文献
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关于台风非对称结构与台风路径的数值分析 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:3
采用一个有限区域原始方程双向相互作用的移动套网格台风路径数值预报模式,对1992年的两个台风进行了5个个例预报试验,结果表明预报路径和实况有很好的一致性,通过对预报个例的台风非对称结构进行分析,发现非对称结构随时间变化与台风移动路径有着比较密切的联系,如能了解实际台风的非对称结构,将有助于提高台风路径预报的水平。 相似文献