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Alkylphenolic compounds are present in estuarine and marine environments. They are moderately bioaccumulative, and oestrogenic to fish following three week, in vivo, exposures. The effects of prolonged exposure are, as yet, unclear. Sand goby (Pomatoschistus minutus) were exposed to measured concentrations of 4-tert-octylphenol (OP) in a 28-day, dose-ranging study, and a six month temporal response study. Following 28-days exposure to measured 31+/-6 or 101+/-47 microg l(-1) OP (mean+/-SD), immature male sand goby showed elevated vitellogenin (VTG) mRNA expression. Plasma alkali-labile phosphate concentrations were elevated in both sexes and were higher in females than males. Although measured OP concentrations were variable, they were significantly different for each treatment and a range of concentration-dependent effects were observed. The LC(50) for chronic OP exposure (8 weeks) was 29+/-6 microg l(-1), and both sexes demonstrated concentration and duration dependent increases in VTG mRNA expression. Exposure to 28+/-20 microg l(-1) OP (median+/-95% CI) for 6 months inhibited development of male nuptial colouration and sperm duct glands. These findings are discussed in relation to environmental concentrations of alkylphenols and ecological concerns. 相似文献
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高分辨率WRF三维变分同化在北京地区降水预报中的应用 总被引：14，自引：4，他引：10
为迎接2008年北京奥运会,改进北京地区的天气预报,建立了一个基于三重嵌套区域(27/9/3 km)的WRF三维变分同化(WRFVar)和WRF模式的高分辨率快速更新循环同化预报(Rapid-Up-date Cycle)系统,并针对2006年8月1日发生在北京地区的强对流天气进行了一系列数值试验,结果表明:高分辨率的快速更新循环系统很好地预报出了此次强降水过程;在WRF三维变分同化里调节背景场误差和观测误差,提高了降水预报的效果;插值得出的3 km背景场误差可以作为一个合理的近似在3 km分辨率的WRFVar中使用,用户可以不必积累高分辨率的预报场去计算背景场误差,从而节省大量计算资源。3 h频次的RUC已经能满足预报要求,更高频次(1 h)的RUC并没有导致预报的进一步提高。 相似文献
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物理过程和分辨率对西南涡演变的中尺度模拟影响 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本文运用PSU/NCAR中尺度模式第四改进型(MM_4),对“81.7”四川暴雨期西南涡的演变进行了一系列96和72小时数值模拟;其目的在于研究模式物理过程和空间分辨率以及行星边界层(PBL)参数化对西南涡生成和发展模拟的影响。96小时的控制试验(方案Ⅰ)结果表明:水平分辨率160km和总体PBL的10层MM_4对西南涡发展模拟得较好,但对其生成只有初步模拟的能力;各种物理过程主要影响西南涡演变的强度,而对其位置影响较小;去掉潜热释放会显著影响西南涡在后期的发展;没有地面通量将使西南涡的生成和发展强度明显减弱;于试验不能模拟出西南涡在整个暴雨期的发展,且使其移速略快,无摩擦试验指出,地面摩擦对西南涡的生成是不重要的。提高模式空间分辨率和采用高分辨PBL模式,能使西南涡生成和发展位置的模拟有明显改进,但其强度一般偏强于实况。事实表明,进一步完善模式物理过程、改进PBL参数化和提高模式空间分辨率将是十分必要的。 相似文献
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Carracedo P Torres-López S Barreiro M Montero P Balseiro CF Penabad E Leitao PC Pérez-Muñuzuri V 《Marine pollution bulletin》2006,53(5-7):350-360
An integrated system named METEOMOHID, developed by MeteoGalicia in the first stage of the Prestige accident in November 2002 was used successfully in an operational form to support decision making and assist in recovering tasks. Afterwards, METEOMOHID has been enhanced with the aim of developing an operational oceanography system to be used in the NW of the Iberian Peninsula. The METEOMOHID system includes local area hydrodynamic coastal ocean modelling (MOHID), real time atmospheric forcing from a local meteorological model (ARPS). Using the available data from the Prestige crisis, a set of simulations were designed in order to reproduce the oil spill drift. The implementation of a detailed vertical resolution in the model has allowed obtaining a detailed surface dynamic, improving our knowledge of the behaviour of tarballs into the water column. Thus, the wind-driven Eckman drift, the direct dragging of the wind were detached, and the possible existence of subsurface oil was assessed. In addition, the present work evaluates the effects of introducing climatologic large scale currents in the METEOMOHID system. 相似文献
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Filamentous cyanobacteria often dominate benthic microbial communities of antarctic lakes and usually exhibit saturation of photosynthesis at light intensities approximately 100 microEinst m-2 s-1. Incident light regimes are controlled by ice and snow accumulations overlaying water columns during much of the year. Thus, light availability to microbial mats is often below saturation intensity and is strongly influenced by modest changes in climatic factors. A model of net primary production for benthic mat communities of the subantarctic Sombre Lake, Signy Island, was developed (1) to evaluate depth-specific productivities of mat communities, (2) to test the relative importances of model parameters to mat production, and (3) to explore the potential impacts of climate change on mat production as manifested through changes in light regime. Simulated rates of net primary production corresponded to observations on a daily basis (approximately 1-4 micrograms C fixed mg-1 ash-free DW of mat d-1) but were an order of magnitude lower than estimates of net annual production based on field measurements (< or = 3 vs. 11-45 g C m-2 yr-1, respectively). Close examination suggested that the simulated values were more plausible. A detailed sensitivity analysis of model behavior revealed that variations in the time of ice and snow melt in spring accounted for 40-60% of the total variation in model behavior, emphasizing the importance of climatic factors to net primary production of mat communities and the sensitivity of mat production to climate change. 相似文献
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对大空间尺度和长时间跨度的地下水流动及污染物质运移进行预测的需求, 使水文地质研究面临异乎寻常的挑战.这些需求来自于对核废料地质储放方法的安全性评价、地下水污染状况评价及其治理方案的选择.流动系统的非均质性是地下水流动及物质运移模拟中最主要的困难之一, 这种困难来自对非均质系统进行特征描述(通过原位观测实现)、概念化及模拟.评述了非均质介质中流动运移模拟的一些重要问题与挑战, 讨论了解决的途径.讨论的主题包括: 动力流动的沟道化, 示踪剂穿透曲线, 裂隙岩石中流体流动的多尺度, 观测的不同尺度, 模拟、预测与非均质性以及系统特征描述和预测性模拟的分析. 相似文献
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Apatite fission track thermochronology (AFTT) and paleomagnetic (PM) results have been used to constrain the Late Paleozoic to Cenozoic landscape evolution of the Lachlan Fold Belt (LFB) around the Northparkes copper-gold deposit in east-central New South Wales. The present-day landscape of this region of the LFB is relatively flat with little expression of the underlying rock and has previously been interpreted to indicate long-term stability of the region since the end of LFB orogenesis in the Early Carboniferous. This was presumably borne out by PM analyses from thick weathered horizons within open pits at the mine, which suggested that significant periods of weathering, and hence relative landscape stability, prevailed during the Early to middle Carboniferous and at some time during the Cenozoic. Results from AFTT analyses, however, indicate that the region must have experienced significant episodes of cooling/denudation during the mid-Permian to mid-Triassic and during the early Cenozoic, as well as episodes of heating/burial during the Late Carboniferous to mid-Permian and during the late Mesozoic. When combined, the AFTT and PM results are in fact consistent and indicate that since the late Paleozoic the landscape of the LFB around the Northparkes deposit has evolved through multiple episodes of denudation and deposition as well as periods of relative stability during which the thick weathering horizons formed. Together these results establish a complementary chronological framework that constrains the Late Palaeozoic to Cenozoic landscape evolution of the Northparkes region and highlights the importance of using dual data sets in elucidating the long-term landscape evolution of similar "stable" terranes. 相似文献