Water level observations from unmanned aerial vehicles for improving estimates of surface water–groundwater interaction          下载免费PDF全文

Filippo Bandini  Michael Butts  Torsten Vammen Jacobsen  Peter Bauer‐Gottwein 《水文研究》2017,31(24):4371-4383

Integrated hydrological models are usually calibrated against observations of river discharge and piezometric head in groundwater aquifers. Calibration of such models against spatially distributed observations of river water level can potentially improve their reliability and predictive skill. However, traditional river gauging stations are normally spaced too far apart to capture spatial patterns in the water surface, whereas spaceborne observations have limited spatial and temporal resolution. Unmanned aerial vehicles can retrieve river water level measurements, providing (a) high spatial resolution; (b) spatially continuous profiles along or across the water body, and (c) flexible timing of sampling. A semisynthetic study was conducted to analyse the value of the new unmanned aerial vehicle‐borne datatype for improving hydrological models, in particular estimates of groundwater–surface water (GW–SW) interaction. Mølleåen River (Denmark) and its catchment were simulated using an integrated hydrological model (MIKE 11–MIKE SHE). Calibration against distributed surface water levels using the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis algorithm demonstrated a significant improvement in estimating spatial patterns and time series of GW–SW interaction. After water level calibration, the sharpness of the estimates of GW–SW time series improves by ~50% and root mean square error decreases by ~75% compared with those of a model calibrated against discharge only.  相似文献   

Assessment of a monumental masonry bell-tower after 2016 Central Italy seismic sequence by long-term SHM     

Filippo Ubertini  Nicola Cavalagli  Alban Kita  Gabriele Comanducci 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(2):775-801

The response of the San Pietro monumental bell-tower located in Perugia, Italy, to the 2016 Central Italy seismic sequence is investigated, taking advantage of the availability of field data recorded by a vibration-based SHM system installed in December 2014 to detect earthquake-induced damages. The tower is located about 85 km in the NW direction from the epicenter of the first major shock of the sequence, the Accumoli Mw6.0 earthquake of August 24th, resulting in a small local PGA of about 30 cm/s², whereby near-field PGA was measured as 915.97 cm/s² (E–W component) and 445.59 cm/s² (N–S component). Similar PGA values also characterized the two other major shocks of the sequence (Ussita Mw5.9 and Norcia Mw6.5 earthquakes of October 26th and 30th, respectively). Despite the relatively low intensity of such earthquakes in Perugia, the analysis of long-term monitoring data clearly highlights that small permanent changes in the structural behavior of the bell-tower have occurred after the earthquakes, with decreases in all identified natural frequencies. Such natural frequency decays are fully consistent with what predicted by non-linear finite element simulations and, in particular, with the development of microcracks at the base of the columns of the belfry. Microcracks in these regions, and in the rest of tower, are however hardly distinguishable from pre-existing ones and from the physiological cracking of a masonry structure, what validates the effectiveness of the SHM system in detecting earthquake-induced damage at a stage where this is not yet detectable by visual inspections.  相似文献   

Some Limits in the Use of the MASW Technique in Soils with Inclined Layers     

Lorenza Evangelista  Filippo Santucci de Magistris 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2015,33(3):701-711

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Numerical simulation of the tsunami generated by a past catastrophic landslide on the volcanic island of Ischia, Italy     

Stefano Tinti  Francesco Latino Chiocci  Filippo Zaniboni  Gianluca Pagnoni  Giovanni de Alteriis 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2011,32(1-2):287-297

The island of Ischia, Gulf of Naples, Italy, like many other volcanic islands is affected by mass failures, that are mainly related to secondary volcanic processes such as slope steepening and seismic shaking. The block resurgence of its main relief, Mount Epomeo, has been recognised to contribute cyclically to mass instability and cause landslides, that occasionally may reach the sea and start tsunamis. In this work we explore the consequences of the Ischia Debris Avalanche (IDA), a flank collapse that occurred in historical times, and involved the whole Mount Epomeo edifice including its submarine portion, and that may have caused gigantic sea waves affecting all the coasts of Ischia and of the Gulf of Naples. The IDA and the generated tsunami have been taken as the worst-case scenario for the occurrence of a new tsunami in the area. They have been simulated through numerical codes developed and maintained by the University of Bologna. The simulation shows that the IDA-induced tsunami attacks severely all the coasts of the Gulf of Naples with the highest waves obtained for the island of Ischia, the island of Capri and the peninsula of Sorrento. The propagation pattern of the IDA tsunami can be used to get hints on the impact that such an event may have had on early populations habiting Gulf of Naples, but also to get clues on the area that could be most severely hit by a tsunami generated by a smaller-scale landslide that may occur in the same source zone.  相似文献   

Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?     

Xavier Rodó  Mercedes Pascual  Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes  Alexander Gershunov  Dáithí A. Stone  Filippo Giorgi  Peter J. Hudson  James Kinter  Miquel-Àngel Rodríguez-Arias  Nils Ch. Stenseth  David Alonso  Javier García-Serrano  Andrew P. Dobson 《Climatic change》2013,118(3-4):625-640

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.  相似文献   

Performance of masonry buildings during the Emilia 2012 earthquake   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Andrea Penna  Paolo Morandi  Maria Rota  Carlo Filippo Manzini  Francesca da Porto  Guido Magenes 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(5):2255-2273

The earthquake sequence started on May \(20\) th 2012 in Emilia (Italy) affected a region where masonry constructions represent a large part of the existing building stock and the construction of new modern masonry buildings is a common practice. The paper is focused on the performance of common architectural configurations, typical for residential or business use. The large majority of old masonry buildings is made of fired clay bricks. The seismic performance of these buildings is particularly interesting since major past earthquakes in Italy affected areas with mainly stone masonry structures. Apart from examples showing systematic or peculiar structural deficiencies governing the vulnerability of several buildings, the overall seismic performance of these structures to repeated shaking, with PGA as large as 0.25–0.3 g was rather good, despite the major part of them were only conceived for carrying vertical loads. In fact, seismic design is mandatory in the area only since 2003. Modern low-rise masonry buildings erected after this date and incorporating seismic design and proper detailing resulted in most cases practically undamaged. The examples reported in the paper allow an evaluation of the superior performance of seismically designed modern masonry buildings in comparison to older ones.  相似文献   

Storm surge frequency reduction in Venice under climate change     

Alberto Troccoli  Filippo Zambon  Kevin I. Hodges  Marco Marani 《Climatic change》2012,113(3-4):1065-1079

Increased tidal levels and storm surges related to climate change are projected to result in extremely adverse effects on coastal regions. Predictions of such extreme and small-scale events, however, are exceedingly challenging, even for relatively short time horizons. Here we use data from observations, ERA-40 re-analysis, climate scenario simulations, and a simple feature model to find that the frequency of extreme storm surge events affecting Venice is projected to decrease by about 30% by the end of the twenty-first century. In addition, through a trend assessment based on tidal observations we found a reduction in extreme tidal levels. Extrapolating the current +17 cm/century sea level trend, our results suggest that the frequency of extreme tides in Venice might largely remain unaltered under the projected twenty-first century climate simulations.  相似文献   

中国高精度土地覆盖数据在RegCM4/CLM模式中的引入及其对区域气候模拟影响的分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

韩振宇  高学杰  石英  吴佳  王美丽  Filippo Giorgi 《冰川冻土》2015,37(4):857-866

基于中国1:100万植被图和1:600万植被区划图, 按照通用陆面模式CLM植被功能型分类标准, 制作了可用于CLM及RegCM4区域气候模式的25 km×25 km分辨率的中国高精度土地覆盖数据(简称VEG数据). 相比CLM默认使用的土地覆盖数据(简称ORG数据), VEG数据不仅能提供更多的土地覆盖局地特征, 还纠正了ORG数据中裸地和农作物的比例偏高、 灌木的比例偏低等误差. 对比使用两套土地覆盖数据的RegCM4多年连续积分结果, 分析了不同土地覆盖分布对气温、 降水等的影响, 并从地表能量收支的角度给出影响机理解释. 结果显示: VEG数据的使用, 使得模式对冬季气温和降水的模拟能力有一定提高, 模式在南部区域偏干偏冷的系统误差有所减弱; 采用VEG数据后, 由于粗糙度、 反照率等下垫面参数的改变及云量的变化, 使得地表能量收支发生显著调整. 青藏高原地区的气温变化与湍流通量和长波辐射的变化有密切的联系, 主要源自粗糙度引起的湍流通量增加、 以及云量引起的向下净长波辐射增加. 而在中国中部和南部, 短波辐射变化更为明显, 它与地表反照率的变化相一致. 基于所制作的土地覆盖数据, 可广泛应用于CLM模式在中国区域的应用之中.  相似文献   

Volcanic soil formation in Calabria (southern Italy): The Cecita Lake geosol in the late Quaternary geomorphological evolution of the Sila uplands     

Fabio Scarciglia  Rosanna De Rosa  Giuseppe Vecchio  Carmine Apollaro  Gaetano Robustelli  Filippo Terrasi 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

This paper focuses on the main morphological, physical, chemical and mineralogical features of an andic-like soil, widely outcropping in the Sila upland plateau of Calabria (southern Italy), and its potential role in tephrostratigraphy. A multidisciplinary and multiscale approach allowed identification of this soil as a “masked” distal archive of volcanic products, developed on granite rocks and sediments with a coeval pyroclastic input during pedogenesis. The study demonstrates that the contribution of volcanic parent materials can be successfully hypothesized and assessed even in the absence, limited extent or poor preservation of primary eruptive products. The soil has an Andisol-like appearance, despite laboratory data that do not match the entire suite of diagnostic criteria for the Andisol taxonomic order. Geomorphological, stratigraphic and pedologic results, coupled with tephrostratigraphic and radiometric data, concur to suggest a Late Pleistocene(?) to Holocene age of the Andisol-like soil. In particular, the rhyolitic chemical composition of small-sized glass fragments (identified by SEM–EDS analyses) indicates soil genesis contributed by volcanic ash, probably sourced from Aeolian Arc explosive activity spanning the last 30 ka. Accordingly, the evidence of limited relict clay illuviation and the specific type of pedogenesis allowing the development of andic properties (in turn related to the neoformation of clay minerals from the weathering of volcanic glass) are consistent with a climatic shift from a seasonally-contrasted to a constantly humid pedoenvironment. This change can be ascribed to the Lateglacial(?) or Early–Middle Holocene to Late Holocene transition. Calibrated AMS ¹⁴C dates performed on charcoal fragments sampled from three representative soil profiles, provide Late Holocene ages (3136 ± 19, 343 ± 16 and 92 ± 24 yr BP), in accord with archaeological finds. On the basis of the consistent stratigraphic position, lateral continuity and wide extent, the soil can be considered a good pedostratigraphic marker in the Sila highlands and is informally defined as the “Cecita Lake geosol”. It supplies valuable time constraints for the underlying (occasionally overlying) deposits and/or soils. Moreover, it allows regional-scale morphostratigraphic correlations and detailed reconstruction of Late Pleistocene–Holocene geomorphic events in Calabria, a very suitable region for distal tephra deposition in the central Mediterranean peri-volcanic area. The effects of high-energy volcanic eruptions are interfingered with or superimposed by other geomorphic processes and climatic or anthropogenic signals.  相似文献   

RegCM3 区域气候模式对中国气候的模拟   总被引：37，自引：2，他引：35       下载免费PDF全文

张冬峰  高学杰  赵宗慈  Jeremy S.PAL  Filippo GIORGI 《气候变化研究进展》2005,1(3):119-121

使用RegCM3区域气候模式嵌套ERA40再分析资料,对东亚地区进行了15 a（1987-2001年）时间长度的数值积分试验。结果表明：模式可较好地模拟中国地面气温的分布和季节变化,但存在系统性的冷偏差;对降水的变化模拟也较好,但其地理分布模拟存在一定偏差。  相似文献