Water level observations from unmanned aerial vehicles for improving estimates of surface water–groundwater interaction          下载免费PDF全文

Filippo Bandini  Michael Butts  Torsten Vammen Jacobsen  Peter Bauer‐Gottwein 《水文研究》2017,31(24):4371-4383

Integrated hydrological models are usually calibrated against observations of river discharge and piezometric head in groundwater aquifers. Calibration of such models against spatially distributed observations of river water level can potentially improve their reliability and predictive skill. However, traditional river gauging stations are normally spaced too far apart to capture spatial patterns in the water surface, whereas spaceborne observations have limited spatial and temporal resolution. Unmanned aerial vehicles can retrieve river water level measurements, providing (a) high spatial resolution; (b) spatially continuous profiles along or across the water body, and (c) flexible timing of sampling. A semisynthetic study was conducted to analyse the value of the new unmanned aerial vehicle‐borne datatype for improving hydrological models, in particular estimates of groundwater–surface water (GW–SW) interaction. Mølleåen River (Denmark) and its catchment were simulated using an integrated hydrological model (MIKE 11–MIKE SHE). Calibration against distributed surface water levels using the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis algorithm demonstrated a significant improvement in estimating spatial patterns and time series of GW–SW interaction. After water level calibration, the sharpness of the estimates of GW–SW time series improves by ~50% and root mean square error decreases by ~75% compared with those of a model calibrated against discharge only.  相似文献   

Assessment of a monumental masonry bell-tower after 2016 Central Italy seismic sequence by long-term SHM     

Filippo Ubertini  Nicola Cavalagli  Alban Kita  Gabriele Comanducci 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(2):775-801

The response of the San Pietro monumental bell-tower located in Perugia, Italy, to the 2016 Central Italy seismic sequence is investigated, taking advantage of the availability of field data recorded by a vibration-based SHM system installed in December 2014 to detect earthquake-induced damages. The tower is located about 85 km in the NW direction from the epicenter of the first major shock of the sequence, the Accumoli Mw6.0 earthquake of August 24th, resulting in a small local PGA of about 30 cm/s², whereby near-field PGA was measured as 915.97 cm/s² (E–W component) and 445.59 cm/s² (N–S component). Similar PGA values also characterized the two other major shocks of the sequence (Ussita Mw5.9 and Norcia Mw6.5 earthquakes of October 26th and 30th, respectively). Despite the relatively low intensity of such earthquakes in Perugia, the analysis of long-term monitoring data clearly highlights that small permanent changes in the structural behavior of the bell-tower have occurred after the earthquakes, with decreases in all identified natural frequencies. Such natural frequency decays are fully consistent with what predicted by non-linear finite element simulations and, in particular, with the development of microcracks at the base of the columns of the belfry. Microcracks in these regions, and in the rest of tower, are however hardly distinguishable from pre-existing ones and from the physiological cracking of a masonry structure, what validates the effectiveness of the SHM system in detecting earthquake-induced damage at a stage where this is not yet detectable by visual inspections.  相似文献   

Some Limits in the Use of the MASW Technique in Soils with Inclined Layers     

Lorenza Evangelista  Filippo Santucci de Magistris 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2015,33(3):701-711

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Performance of masonry buildings during the Emilia 2012 earthquake   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Andrea Penna  Paolo Morandi  Maria Rota  Carlo Filippo Manzini  Francesca da Porto  Guido Magenes 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(5):2255-2273

The earthquake sequence started on May \(20\) th 2012 in Emilia (Italy) affected a region where masonry constructions represent a large part of the existing building stock and the construction of new modern masonry buildings is a common practice. The paper is focused on the performance of common architectural configurations, typical for residential or business use. The large majority of old masonry buildings is made of fired clay bricks. The seismic performance of these buildings is particularly interesting since major past earthquakes in Italy affected areas with mainly stone masonry structures. Apart from examples showing systematic or peculiar structural deficiencies governing the vulnerability of several buildings, the overall seismic performance of these structures to repeated shaking, with PGA as large as 0.25–0.3 g was rather good, despite the major part of them were only conceived for carrying vertical loads. In fact, seismic design is mandatory in the area only since 2003. Modern low-rise masonry buildings erected after this date and incorporating seismic design and proper detailing resulted in most cases practically undamaged. The examples reported in the paper allow an evaluation of the superior performance of seismically designed modern masonry buildings in comparison to older ones.  相似文献   

Numerical simulation of the tsunami generated by a past catastrophic landslide on the volcanic island of Ischia, Italy     

Stefano Tinti  Francesco Latino Chiocci  Filippo Zaniboni  Gianluca Pagnoni  Giovanni de Alteriis 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2011,32(1-2):287-297

The island of Ischia, Gulf of Naples, Italy, like many other volcanic islands is affected by mass failures, that are mainly related to secondary volcanic processes such as slope steepening and seismic shaking. The block resurgence of its main relief, Mount Epomeo, has been recognised to contribute cyclically to mass instability and cause landslides, that occasionally may reach the sea and start tsunamis. In this work we explore the consequences of the Ischia Debris Avalanche (IDA), a flank collapse that occurred in historical times, and involved the whole Mount Epomeo edifice including its submarine portion, and that may have caused gigantic sea waves affecting all the coasts of Ischia and of the Gulf of Naples. The IDA and the generated tsunami have been taken as the worst-case scenario for the occurrence of a new tsunami in the area. They have been simulated through numerical codes developed and maintained by the University of Bologna. The simulation shows that the IDA-induced tsunami attacks severely all the coasts of the Gulf of Naples with the highest waves obtained for the island of Ischia, the island of Capri and the peninsula of Sorrento. The propagation pattern of the IDA tsunami can be used to get hints on the impact that such an event may have had on early populations habiting Gulf of Naples, but also to get clues on the area that could be most severely hit by a tsunami generated by a smaller-scale landslide that may occur in the same source zone.  相似文献   

Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?     

Xavier Rodó  Mercedes Pascual  Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes  Alexander Gershunov  Dáithí A. Stone  Filippo Giorgi  Peter J. Hudson  James Kinter  Miquel-Àngel Rodríguez-Arias  Nils Ch. Stenseth  David Alonso  Javier García-Serrano  Andrew P. Dobson 《Climatic change》2013,118(3-4):625-640

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.  相似文献   

Storm surge frequency reduction in Venice under climate change     

Alberto Troccoli  Filippo Zambon  Kevin I. Hodges  Marco Marani 《Climatic change》2012,113(3-4):1065-1079

Increased tidal levels and storm surges related to climate change are projected to result in extremely adverse effects on coastal regions. Predictions of such extreme and small-scale events, however, are exceedingly challenging, even for relatively short time horizons. Here we use data from observations, ERA-40 re-analysis, climate scenario simulations, and a simple feature model to find that the frequency of extreme storm surge events affecting Venice is projected to decrease by about 30% by the end of the twenty-first century. In addition, through a trend assessment based on tidal observations we found a reduction in extreme tidal levels. Extrapolating the current +17 cm/century sea level trend, our results suggest that the frequency of extreme tides in Venice might largely remain unaltered under the projected twenty-first century climate simulations.  相似文献   

Stability and chemical equilibrium of amphibole in calc-alkaline magmas: an overview, new thermobarometric formulations and application to subduction-related volcanoes   总被引：33，自引：9，他引：24  

Filippo Ridolfi  Alberto Renzulli  Matteo Puerini 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2010,160(1):45-66

This work focuses on a rigorous analysis of the physical–chemical, compositional and textural relationships of amphibole stability and the development of new thermobarometric formulations for amphibole-bearing calc-alkaline products of subduction-related systems. Literature experimental results (550–1,120°C, <1,200 MPa, −1 ≤ ΔNNO ≤ +5), H₂O–CO₂ solubility models, a multitude of amphibole-bearing calc-alkaline products (whole-rocks and glasses, representing 38 volcanoes worldwide), crustal and high-P (1–3 GPa) mantle amphibole compositions have been used. Calcic amphiboles of basalt-rhyolite volcanic products display tschermakitic pargasite (37%), magnesiohastingsite (32%) and magnesiohornblende (31%) compositions with aluminium number (i.e. Al# = ^[6]Al/Al_T) ≤ 0.21. A few volcanic amphiboles (~1%) show high Al# (>0.21) and are inferred to represent xenocrysts of crustal or mantle materials. Most experimental results on calc-alkaline suites have been found to be unsuitable for using in thermobarometric calibrations due to the high Al# (>0.21) of amphiboles and high Al₂O₃/SiO₂ ratios of the coexisting melts. The pre-eruptive crystallization of consistent amphiboles is confined to relatively narrow physical–chemical ranges, next to their dehydration curves. The widespread occurrence of amphiboles with dehydration (breakdown) rims made of anhydrous phases and/or glass, related to sub-volcanic processes such as magma mixing and/or slow ascent during extrusion, confirms that crystal destabilization occurs with relatively low T–P shifts. At the stability curves, the variance of the system decreases so that amphibole composition and physical–chemical conditions are strictly linked to each other. This allowed us to retrieve some empirical thermobarometric formulations which work independently with different compositional components (i.e. Si^*, Al_T, Mg^*, ^[6]Al^*) of a single phase (amphibole), and are therefore easily applicable to all types of calc-alkaline volcanic products (including hybrid andesites). The Si^*-sensitive thermometer and the fO₂–Mg^* equation account for accuracies of ±22°C (σ_est) and 0.4 log units (maximum error), respectively. The uncertainties of the Al_T-sensitive barometer increase with pressure and decrease with temperature. Near the P–T stability curve, the error is <11% whereas for crystal-rich (porphyritic index i.e. PI > 35%) and lower-T magmas, the uncertainty increases up to 24%, consistent with depth uncertainties of 0.4 km, at 90 MPa (~3.4 km), and 7.9 km, at 800 MPa (~30 km), respectively. For magnesiohornblendes, the ^[6]Al^*-sensitive hygrometer has an accuracy of 0.4 wt% (σ_est) whereas for magnesiohastingsite and tschermakitic pargasite species, H₂O_melt uncertainties can be as high as 15% relative. The thermobarometric results obtained with the application of these equations to calc-alkaline amphibole-bearing products were finally, and successfully, crosschecked on several subduction-related volcanoes, through complementary methodologies such as pre-eruptive seismicity (volcano-tectonic earthquake locations and frequency), seismic tomography, Fe–Ti oxides, amphibole–plagioclase, plagioclase–liquid equilibria thermobarometry and melt inclusion studies. A user-friendly spreadsheet (i.e. AMP-TB.xls) to calculate the physical–chemical conditions of amphibole crystallization is also provided.  相似文献   

Agricultural Land Use Effects on Climate over China as Simulated by a Regional Climate Model   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

ZHANG Dongfeng  GAO Xuejie  SHI Ying  GIORGI Filippo  DONG Wenjie 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2010,24(2):215-224

The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) is used to investigate the climate effects of land use change related to agriculture over China. The model is driven by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast 40-yr Re-Analysis (ERA40)data. Two sets of experiments for 15 yr (1987-2001) are conducted, one with the potential vegetation cover and the other the agricultural land use (AG). The results show that the AG effects on temperature are weak over northern China while in southern China a significant cooling is found in both winter (December-January-February) and summer (June-July-August). The mean cooling in the sub-regions of South China (SC) in winter and the sub-regions of Southeast (SE) China in summer are found to be the greatest,up to 0.5℃ and 0.8℃, respectively. In general, the change of AG leads to a decrease of annual mean temperature by 0.5-1℃ in southern China. Slight change of precipitation in western China and a decrease of precipitation in eastern China are simulated in winter, with the maximum reduction reaching -7.5% over SE. A general decrease of precipitation over northern China and an increase over southern China are simulated in summer,in particular over SE where the increase of precipitation can be up to 7.3%. The AG effects on temperature and precipitation show strong interannual variability. Comparison of the climate effects between AG and the present-day land use (LU) is also performed. In southern China, the ratio of temperature (precipitation)changes caused by AG and LU is greater than (closer to) the ratio of the number of grid cells with changed vegetation cover due to AG and LU variations.  相似文献   

Volcanic soil formation in Calabria (southern Italy): The Cecita Lake geosol in the late Quaternary geomorphological evolution of the Sila uplands     

Fabio Scarciglia  Rosanna De Rosa  Giuseppe Vecchio  Carmine Apollaro  Gaetano Robustelli  Filippo Terrasi 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

This paper focuses on the main morphological, physical, chemical and mineralogical features of an andic-like soil, widely outcropping in the Sila upland plateau of Calabria (southern Italy), and its potential role in tephrostratigraphy. A multidisciplinary and multiscale approach allowed identification of this soil as a “masked” distal archive of volcanic products, developed on granite rocks and sediments with a coeval pyroclastic input during pedogenesis. The study demonstrates that the contribution of volcanic parent materials can be successfully hypothesized and assessed even in the absence, limited extent or poor preservation of primary eruptive products. The soil has an Andisol-like appearance, despite laboratory data that do not match the entire suite of diagnostic criteria for the Andisol taxonomic order. Geomorphological, stratigraphic and pedologic results, coupled with tephrostratigraphic and radiometric data, concur to suggest a Late Pleistocene(?) to Holocene age of the Andisol-like soil. In particular, the rhyolitic chemical composition of small-sized glass fragments (identified by SEM–EDS analyses) indicates soil genesis contributed by volcanic ash, probably sourced from Aeolian Arc explosive activity spanning the last 30 ka. Accordingly, the evidence of limited relict clay illuviation and the specific type of pedogenesis allowing the development of andic properties (in turn related to the neoformation of clay minerals from the weathering of volcanic glass) are consistent with a climatic shift from a seasonally-contrasted to a constantly humid pedoenvironment. This change can be ascribed to the Lateglacial(?) or Early–Middle Holocene to Late Holocene transition. Calibrated AMS ¹⁴C dates performed on charcoal fragments sampled from three representative soil profiles, provide Late Holocene ages (3136 ± 19, 343 ± 16 and 92 ± 24 yr BP), in accord with archaeological finds. On the basis of the consistent stratigraphic position, lateral continuity and wide extent, the soil can be considered a good pedostratigraphic marker in the Sila highlands and is informally defined as the “Cecita Lake geosol”. It supplies valuable time constraints for the underlying (occasionally overlying) deposits and/or soils. Moreover, it allows regional-scale morphostratigraphic correlations and detailed reconstruction of Late Pleistocene–Holocene geomorphic events in Calabria, a very suitable region for distal tephra deposition in the central Mediterranean peri-volcanic area. The effects of high-energy volcanic eruptions are interfingered with or superimposed by other geomorphic processes and climatic or anthropogenic signals.  相似文献