Insights From a Multi-Method Recharge Estimation Comparison Study     

David Walker  Geoff Parkin  Petra Schmitter  John Gowing  Seifu A. Tilahun  Alemseged T. Haile  Abdu Y. Yimam 《Ground water》2019,57(2):245-258

Although most recharge estimation studies apply multiple methods to identify the possible range in recharge values, many do not distinguish clearly enough between inherent uncertainty of the methods and other factors affecting the results. We investigated the additional value that can be gained from multi-method recharge studies through insights into hydrogeological understanding, in addition to characterizing uncertainty. Nine separate groundwater recharge estimation methods, with a total of 17 variations, were applied at a shallow aquifer in northwest Ethiopia in the context of the potential for shallow groundwater resource development. These gave a wide range of recharge values from 45 to 814 mm/a. Critical assessment indicated that the results depended on what the recharge represents (actual, potential, minimum recharge or change in aquifer storage), and spatial and temporal scales, as well as uncertainties from application of each method. Important insights into the hydrogeological system were gained from this detailed analysis, which also confirmed that the range of values for actual recharge was reduced to around 280-430 mm/a. This study demonstrates that even when assumptions behind methods are violated, as they often are to some degree especially when data are limited, valuable insights into the hydrogeological system can be gained from application of multiple methods.  相似文献   

Pattern,style and timing of British–Irish Ice Sheet advance and retreat over the last 45 000 years: evidence from NW Scotland and the adjacent continental shelf     

Tom Bradwell  Derek Fabel  Chris D. Clark  Richard C. Chiverrell  David Small  Rachel K. Smedley  Margot H. Saher  Steven G. Moreton  Dayton Dove  S. Louise Callard  Geoff A. T. Duller  Alicia Medialdea  Mark D. Bateman  Matthew J. Burke  Neil McDonald  Sean Gilgannon  Sally Morgan  David H. Roberts  Colm ó Cofaigh 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(5):871-933

Predicting the future response of ice sheets to climate warming and rising global sea level is important but difficult. This is especially so when fast-flowing glaciers or ice streams, buffered by ice shelves, are grounded on beds below sea level. What happens when these ice shelves are removed? And how do the ice stream and the surrounding ice sheet respond to the abruptly altered boundary conditions? To address these questions and others we present new geological, geomorphological, geophysical and geochronological data from the ice-stream-dominated NW sector of the last British–Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS). The study area covers around 45 000 km² of NW Scotland and the surrounding continental shelf. Alongside seabed geomorphological mapping and Quaternary sediment analysis, we use a suite of over 100 new absolute ages (including cosmogenic-nuclide exposure ages, optically stimulated luminescence ages and radiocarbon dates) collected from onshore and offshore, to build a sector-wide ice-sheet reconstruction combining all available evidence with Bayesian chronosequence modelling. Using this information we present a detailed assessment of ice-sheet advance/retreat history, and the glaciological connections between different areas of the NW BIIS sector, at different times during the last glacial cycle. The results show a highly dynamic, partly marine, partly terrestrial, ice-sheet sector undergoing large size variations in response to sub-millennial-scale climatic (Dansgaard–Oeschger) cycles over the last 45 000 years. Superimposed on these trends we identify internally driven instabilities, operating at higher frequency, conditioned by local topographic factors, tidewater dynamics and glaciological feedbacks during deglaciation. Specifically, our new evidence indicates extensive marine-terminating ice-sheet glaciation of the NW BIIS sector during Greenland Stadials 12 to 9 – prior to the main ‘Late Weichselian’ ice-sheet glaciation. After a period of restricted glaciation, in Greenland Interstadials 8 to 6, we find good evidence for rapid renewed ice-sheet build-up in NW Scotland, with the Minch ice-stream terminus reaching the continental shelf edge in Greenland Stadial 5, perhaps only briefly. Deglaciation of the NW sector took place in numerous stages. Several grounding-zone wedges and moraines on the mid- and inner continental shelf attest to significant stabilizations of the ice-sheet grounding line, or ice margin, during overall retreat in Greenland Stadials 3 and 2, and to the development of ice shelves. NW Lewis was the first substantial present-day land area to deglaciate, in the first half of Greenland Stadial 3 at a time of globally reduced sea-level c. 26 kabp , followed by Cape Wrath at c. 24 kabp. The topographic confinement of the Minch straits probably promoted ice-shelf development in early Greenland Stadial 2, providing the ice stream with additional support and buffering it somewhat from external drivers. However, c. 20–19 kabp , as the grounding-line migrated into shoreward deepening water, coinciding with a marked change in marine geology and bed strength, the ice stream became unstable. We find that, once underway, grounding-line retreat proceeded in an uninterrupted fashion with the rapid loss of fronting ice shelves – first in the west, then the east troughs – before eventual glacier stabilization at fjord mouths in NW Scotland by ~17 kabp. Around the same time, ~19–17 kabp , ice-sheet lobes readvanced into the East Minch – possibly a glaciological response to the marine-instability-triggered loss of adjacent ice stream (and/or ice shelf) support in the Minch trough. An independent ice cap on Lewis also experienced margin oscillations during mid-Greenland Stadial 2, with an ice-accumulation centre in West Lewis existing into the latter part of Heinrich Stadial 1. Final ice-sheet deglaciation of NW mainland Scotland was punctuated by at least one other coherent readvance at c. 15.5 kabp , before significant ice-mass losses thereafter. At the glacial termination, c. 14.5 kabp , glaciers fed outwash sediment to now-abandoned coastal deltas in NW mainland Scotland around the time of global Meltwater Pulse 1A. Overall, this work on the BIIS NW sector reconstructs a highly dynamic ice-sheet oscillating in extent and volume for much of the last 45 000 years. Periods of expansive ice-sheet glaciation dominated by ice-streaming were interspersed with periods of much more restricted ice-cap or tidewater/fjordic glaciation. Finally, this work indicates that the role of ice streams in ice-sheet evolution is complex but mechanistically important throughout the lifetime of an ice sheet – with ice streams contributing to the regulation of ice-sheet health but also to the acceleration of ice-sheet demise via marine ice-sheet instabilities.  相似文献   

The evolution of the terrestrial-terminating Irish Sea glacier during the last glaciation     

Richard Christopher Chiverrell  Geoff Stephen Powell Thomas  Matthew Burke  Alicia Medialdea  Rachel Smedley  Mark Bateman  Chris Clark  Geoffrey A. T. Duller  Derek Fabel  Geraint Jenkins  Xianjiao Ou  Helen Marie Roberts  James Scourse 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(5):752-779

Here we reconstruct the last advance to maximum limits and retreat of the Irish Sea Glacier (ISG), the only land-terminating ice lobe of the western British Irish Ice Sheet. A series of reverse bedrock slopes rendered proglacial lakes endemic, forming time-transgressive moraine- and bedrock-dammed basins that evolved with ice marginal retreat. Combining, for the first time on glacial sediments, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) bleaching profiles for cobbles with single grain and small aliquot OSL measurements on sands, has produced a coherent chronology from these heterogeneously bleached samples. This chronology constrains what is globally an early build-up of ice during late Marine Isotope Stage 3 and Greenland Stadial (GS) 5, with ice margins reaching south Lancashire by 30 ± 1.2 ka, followed by a 120-km advance at 28.3 ± 1.4 ka reaching its 26.5 ± 1.1 ka maximum extent during GS-3. Early retreat during GS-3 reflects piracy of ice sources shared with the Irish-Sea Ice Stream (ISIS), starving the ISG. With ISG retreat, an opportunistic readvance of Welsh ice during GS-2 rode over the ISG moraines occupying the space vacated, with ice margins oscillating within a substantial glacial over-deepening. Our geomorphological chronosequence shows a glacial system forced by climate but mediated by piracy of ice sources shared with the ISIS, changing flow regimes and fronting environments.  相似文献   

Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Allyson Williams  Neil White  Shahbaz Mushtaq  Geoff Cockfield  Brendan Power  Louis Kouadio 《Climatic change》2015,129(1-2):183-196

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Bioturbation on a south‐east Australian hillslope: estimating contributions to soil flux     

Paul J. Richards  Geoff S. Humphreys 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2011,36(9):1240-1253

The contribution of bioturbation to downslope soil transport is significant in many situations, particularly in the context of soil formation, erosion and creep. This study explored the direct flux of soil caused by Aphaenogaster ant mounding, vertebrate scraping and tree‐throw on a wildfire‐affected hillslope in south‐east Australia. This included the development of methods previously applied to Californian gopher bioturbation, and an evaluation of methods for estimating the volume of soil displaced by tree‐throw events. All three bioturbation types resulted in a net downslope flux, but any influence of hillslope angle on flux rates appeared to be overshadowed by environmental controls over the spatial extent of bioturbation. As a result, the highest flux rates occurred on the footslope and lower slope. The overall contribution of vertebrate scraping (57.0 ± 89.4 g m^?1 yr^?1) exceeded that of ant mounding (36.4 ± 66.0 g m^?1 yr^?1), although mean rates were subject to considerable uncertainty. Tree‐throw events, which individually cause major disturbance, were limited in their importance by their scarcity relative to faunalturbation. However, tree‐throw might be the dominant mechanism of biotic soil flux on the mid‐slope provided that it occurs at a frequency of at least 2–3 events ha^?1 yr^?1. Although direct biotic soil flux appears to be geomorphologically significant on this hillslope, such transport processes are probably subordinate to other impacts of bioturbation at this site such as the enhancement of infiltration following wildfire. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Century‐long records reveal slight,ecoregion‐localized changes in Athabasca River flows          下载免费PDF全文

Stewart B. Rood  Geoff W. Stupple  Karen M. Gill 《水文研究》2015,29(5):805-816

Reports of abruptly declining flows of Canada's Athabasca River have prompted concern because this large, free‐flowing river could be representative for northern North America, provides water for the massive Athabasca oil‐sands projects and flows to the extensive and biodiverse Peace–Athabasca, Slave and Mackenzie River deltas. To investigate historic hydrology along the river and its major tributaries, we expanded the time series with interpolations for short data gaps; calculations of annual discharges from early, summer‐only records; and by splicing records across sequential hydrometric gauges. These produced composite, century‐long records (1913–2011) and trend detection with linear Pearson correlation provided similar outcomes to nonparametric Kendall τ‐b tests. These revealed that the mountain and foothills reaches displayed slight increases in winter discharges versus larger declines in summer discharges and consequently declining annual flows (~0.16% per year at Hinton; p < 0.01). Conversely, with contrasting boreal contributions, the Athabasca River at Athabasca displayed no overall trend in monthly or annual flows, but there was correspondence with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that contributed to a temporary flow decline from 1970 to 2000. These findings from century‐long records contrast with interpretations from numerous shorter‐term studies and emphasize the need for sufficient time series for hydrologic trend analyses. For Northern Hemisphere rivers, the study interval should be at least 80 years to span two Pacific Decadal Oscillation cycles and dampen the influence from phase transitions. Most prior trend analyses considered only a few decades, and this weakens interpretations of the hydrologic consequences of climate change. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Multifunctional intervention and market rationality in agricultural governance: a comparative study of England and South Australia     

Simon J. Fielke  Geoff A. Wilson 《GeoJournal》2017,82(5):1067-1083

Critiques of the neoliberal governance of agricultural systems have led to a number of political responses which attempt to address the socio-environmental consequences of the dominant regime. In this paper two case study regions (South Australia and England) have been chosen to represent variations in agricultural policy and to highlight subsequent outcomes on the sustainability of agriculture. Interviewed governance stakeholders highlighted issues in regard to the agricultural governance of each area, from social and environmental consequences of minimal policy intervention in South Australia, to issues created by greater economic support in England. As such, the distinct variations in agricultural regimes will continue to demand scholarly attention, in order for the value of diversity within the sector to be more widely understood. The study concludes that it is likely agricultural support will continue to decline in both case study regions. Importantly, however, innovative policy mechanisms that aim to reduce local risks and value local agricultural priorities, without requiring significant financial support, might be the most promising way forward in regard to agricultural system sustainability.  相似文献   

Wood as a driver of past landscape change along river corridors     

Robert A. Francis  Geoff E. Petts  Angela M. Gurnell 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2008,33(10):1622-1626

The role of wood as a driver of landform development appears to have been overlooked in the interpretation of palaeo‐landscape change along river corridors. Deforested river corridors and wood‐free rivers characterize ‘modern’, managed landscapes, but along natural river corridors both driftwood dynamics and tree reproductive strategies can have a dramatic impact on the style and rate of channel and floodplain development. Therefore, we believe that interpretations of the post‐glacial history of river valleys across the northern temperate climatic zone could be usefully reassessed, incorporating the roles of riparian trees. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A yield-per-recruit model for sequential fisheries and its application in evaluating the management strategy of changing incidental inshore fishing mortality     

Yong Chen  Geoff W. Liggins  Ron J. West 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》1998,60(2):130-144

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莱州湾东岸海底地下水的水文地球化学特征及其地球化学演化模式   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

李福林  陈学群  张奇  PETTIFER Geoff  宋福山  王潘平  刘学忠  姜克华  刘竹梅 《海洋科学进展》2005,23(2):190-196

莱州湾东岸的海底地下水主要分布在浅海区的第四纪松散沉积物中,明显有别于海水,目前已被大量开采利用。从内陆向海区分别取地下水样化验分析,其pH值、密度、钠吸附比(SAR)、rCl/rBr等化学特征值呈现出从陆向海逐渐变化的规律,内陆含水层地下水中较高的硝酸盐类污染物,在海底地下水中也有明显的反映,地下水的水化学类型也由ClCa·Na·Mg型转变为ClNa·Mg型和ClNa型。另一方面,海底地下水的主要组分、浓度和矿物相组成也有自己的特点。研究发现,从内陆向海区,地下水的离子强度和矿物质的饱和指数均呈现出一定的变化规律。地下水中的这些离子以及矿物相在空间上的水岩交换变化,使地下水逐渐从淡水演化为微咸水和咸水,构成了海岸带地下水地球化学演化的一般模式。鉴于海底地下水与内陆地下水的紧密联系,今后陆地含水层一旦被污染,地下水向海区的化学输移将带来一定的环境效应。这应当引起我们足够的重视。  相似文献