Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example     

Ida K. Westerberg  Keith J. Beven  Gemma Coxon  Tobias Krueger 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(Z2):1705-1713

ABSTRACT

Characterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis. Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources – and different perceptions thereof – explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work.  相似文献   

Evaluating soil water routing approaches in watershed-scale,ecohydrologic modelling     

Garett Pignotti  Indrajeet Chaubey  Keith Cherkauer  Mark Williams  Melba Crawford 《水文研究》2021,35(3):e14034

Soil water dynamics are central in linking and regulating natural cycles in ecohydrology, however, mathematical representation of soil water processes in models is challenging given the complexity of these interactions. To assess the impacts of soil water simulation approaches on various model outputs, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool was modified to accommodate an alternative soil water percolation method and tested at two geographically and climatically distinct, instrumented watersheds in the United States. Soil water was evaluated at the site scale via measured observations, and hydrologic and biophysical outputs were analysed at the watershed scale. Results demonstrated an improved Kling–Gupta Efficiency of up to 0.3 and a reduction in percent bias from 5 to 25% at the site scale, when soil water percolation was changed from a threshold, bucket-based approach to an alternative approach based on variable hydraulic conductivity. The primary difference between the approaches was attributed to the ability to simulate soil water content above field capacity for successive days; however, regardless of the approach, a lack of site-specific characterization of soil properties by the soils database at the site scale was found to severely limit the analysis. Differences in approach led to a regime shift in percolation from a few, high magnitude events to frequent, low magnitude events. At the watershed scale, the variable hydraulic conductivity-based approach reduced average annual percolation by 20–50 mm, directly impacting the water balance and subsequently biophysical predictions. For instance, annual denitrification increased by 14–24 kg/ha for the new approach. Overall, the study demonstrates the need for continued efforts to enhance soil water model representation for improving biophysical process simulations.  相似文献   

Quantifying the rate and depth dependence of bioturbation based on optically‐stimulated luminescence (OSL) dates and meteoric 10Be          下载免费PDF全文

Michelle O. Johnson  Simon M. Mudd  Brad Pillans  Nigel A. Spooner  L. Keith Fifield  Mike J. Kirkby  Manuel Gloor 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2014,39(9):1188-1196

Both the rate and the vertical distribution of soil disturbance modify soil properties such as porosity, particle size, chemical composition and age structure; all of which play an important role in a soil's biogeochemical functioning. Whereas rates of mixing have been previously quantified, the nature of bioturbation's depth dependence remains poorly constrained. Here we constrain, for the first time, the relationship between mixing rate and depth in a bioturbated soil in northeast Queensland, Australia using a novel method combining OSL (optically‐stimulated luminescence) ages and meteoric beryllium‐10 (¹⁰Be) inventories. We find that the best fit mixing rate decreases non‐linearly with increasing soil depth in this soil and the characteristic length scale of 0.28 m over which the mixing coefficient decays is comparable to reported rooting depth coefficients. In addition we show that estimates of surface mixing rates from OSL data are highly dependent on erosion rate and that erosion rate must be constrained if accurate mixing rates are to be quantified. We calculate surface diffusion‐like mixing coefficients of 1.8 × 10^?4 and 2.1 × 10^?4 m² yr^?1 for the studied soil for two different estimates of soil erosion. © 2014 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

The potential for agricultural land use change to reduce flood risk in a large watershed          下载免费PDF全文

Keith E. Schilling  Philip W. Gassman  Catherine L. Kling  Todd Campbell  Manoj K. Jha  Calvin F. Wolter  Jeffrey G. Arnold 《水文研究》2014,28(8):3314-3325

Effects of agricultural land management practices on surface runoff are evident at local scales, but evidence for watershed‐scale impacts is limited. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to assess changes in downstream flood risks under different land uses for the large, intensely agricultural, Raccoon River watershed in Iowa. We first developed a baseline model for flood risk based on current land use and typical weather patterns and then simulated the effects of varying levels of increased perennials on the landscape under the same weather patterns. Results suggest that land use changes in the Raccoon River could reduce the likelihood of flood events, decreasing both the number of flood events and the frequency of severe floods. The duration of flood events were not substantially affected by land use change in our assessment. The greatest flood risk reduction was associated with converting all cropland to perennial vegetation, but we found that converting half of the land to perennial vegetation or extended rotations (and leaving the remaining area in cropland) could also have major effects on reducing downstream flooding potential. We discuss the potential costs of adopting the land use change in the watershed to illustrate the scale of subsidies required to induce large‐scale conversion to perennially based systems needed for flood risk reduction. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates          下载免费PDF全文

Michael J. Hollaway  Keith J. Beven  Clare Mc W. H. Benskin  Adrian L. Collins  Robert Evans  Peter D. Falloon  Kirsty J. Forber  Kevin M. Hiscock  Ron Kahana  Christopher J. A. Macleod  Mary C. Ockenden  Martha L. Villamizar  Catherine Wearing  Paul J. A. Withers  Jian G. Zhou  Nicholas J. Barber  Philip M. Haygarth 《水文研究》2018,32(17):2779-2787

River discharge and nutrient measurements are subject to aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In this study, we present a novel method for estimating these uncertainties in colocated discharge and phosphorus (P) measurements. The “voting point”‐based method constrains the derived stage‐discharge rating curve both on the fit to available gaugings and to the catchment water balance. This helps reduce the uncertainty beyond the range of available gaugings and during out of bank situations. In the example presented here, for the top 5% of flows, uncertainties are shown to be 139% using a traditional power law fit, compared with 40% when using our updated “voting point” method. Furthermore, the method is extended to in situ and lab analysed nutrient concentration data pairings, with lower uncertainties (81%) shown for high concentrations (top 5%) than when a traditional regression is applied (102%). Overall, for both discharge and nutrient data, the method presented goes some way to accounting for epistemic uncertainties associated with nonstationary physical characteristics of the monitoring site.  相似文献   

Multibeam sonar backscatter data processing     

Alexandre C. G. Schimel  Jonathan Beaudoin  Iain M. Parnum  Tim Le Bas  Val Schmidt  Gordon Keith  Daniel Ierodiaconou 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2018,39(1-2):121-137

Multibeam sonar systems now routinely record seafloor backscatter data, which are processed into backscatter mosaics and angular responses, both of which can assist in identifying seafloor types and morphology. Those data products are obtained from the multibeam sonar raw data files through a sequence of data processing stages that follows a basic plan, but the implementation of which varies greatly between sonar systems and software. In this article, we provide a comprehensive review of this backscatter data processing chain, with a focus on the variability in the possible implementation of each processing stage. Our objective for undertaking this task is twofold: (1) to provide an overview of backscatter data processing for the consideration of the general user and (2) to provide suggestions to multibeam sonar manufacturers, software providers and the operators of these systems and software for eventually reducing the lack of control, uncertainty and variability associated with current data processing implementations and the resulting backscatter data products. One such suggestion is the adoption of a nomenclature for increasingly refined levels of processing, akin to the nomenclature adopted for satellite remote-sensing data deliverables.  相似文献   

Recharge and Groundwater Flow Within an Intracratonic Basin,Midwestern United States          下载免费PDF全文

Samuel V. Panno  Zohreh Askari  Walton R. Kelly  Thomas M. Parris  Keith C. Hackley 《Ground water》2018,56(1):32-45

The conservative nature of chloride (Cl^?) in groundwater and the abundance of geochemical data from various sources (both published and unpublished) provided a means of developing, for the first time, a representation of the hydrogeology of the Illinois Basin on a basin‐wide scale. The creation of Cl^? isocons superimposed on plan view maps of selected formations and on cross sections across the Illinois Basin yielded a conceptual model on a basin‐wide scale of recharge into, groundwater flow within and through the Illinois Basin. The maps and cross sections reveal the infiltration and movement of freshwater into the basin and dilution of brines within various geologic strata occurring at basin margins and along geologic structures. Cross‐formational movement of brines is also seen in the northern part of the basin. The maps and cross sections also show barriers to groundwater movement created by aquitards resulting in areas of apparent isolation/stagnation of concentrated brines within the basin. The distribution of Cl^? within the Illinois Basin suggests that the current chemical composition of groundwater and distribution of brines within the basin is dependent on five parameters: (1) presence of bedrock exposures along basin margins; (2) permeability of geologic strata and their distribution relative to one another; (3) presence or absence of major geologic structures; (4) intersection of major waterways with geologic structures, basin margins, and permeable bedrock exposures; and (5) isolation of brines within the basin due to aquitards, inhomogeneous permeability, and, in the case of the deepest part of the basin, brine density effects.  相似文献   

Revisiting the death of geography in the era of Big Data: the friction of distance in cyberspace and real space   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Su Yeon Han  Keith C. Clarke 《International Journal of Digital Earth》2018,11(5):451-469

Many scholars have argued that the importance of geographic proximity in human interactions has been diminished by the use of the Internet, while others disagree with this argument. Studies have noted the distance decay effect in both cyberspace and real space, showing that interactions occur with an inverse relationship between the number of interactions and the distance between the locations of the interactors. However, these studies rarely provide strong evidence to show the influence of distance on interactions in cyberspace, nor do they quantify the differences in the amount of friction of distance between cyberspace and real space. To fill this gap, this study used massive amounts of social media data (Twitter) to compare the influence of distance decay on human interactions between cyberspace and real space in a quantitative manner. To estimate the distance decay effect in both cyberspace and real space, the distance decay function of interactions in each space was modeled. Estimating the distance decay in cyberspace in this study can help predict the degree of information flow across space through social media. Measuring how far ideas can be diffused through social media is useful for users of location-based services, policy advocates, public health officials, and political campaigners.  相似文献   

Waldo R. Tobler (1930–2018)     

Keith C. Clarke 《制图学和地理信息科学》2018,45(4):287-288

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Potential Salinity and Temperature Futures for the Chesapeake Bay Using a Statistical Downscaling Spatial Disaggregation Framework     

Barbara A. Muhling  Carlos F. Gaitán  Charles A. Stock  Vincent S. Saba  Desiree Tommasi  Keith W. Dixon 《Estuaries and Coasts》2018,41(2):349-372

Estuaries are productive and ecologically important ecosystems, incorporating environmental drivers from watersheds, rivers, and the coastal ocean. Climate change has potential to modify the physical properties of estuaries, with impacts on resident organisms. However, projections from general circulation models (GCMs) are generally too coarse to resolve important estuarine processes. Here, we statistically downscaled near-surface air temperature and precipitation projections to the scale of the Chesapeake Bay watershed and estuary. These variables were linked to Susquehanna River streamflow using a water balance model and finally to spatially resolved Chesapeake Bay surface temperature and salinity using statistical model trees. The low computational cost of this approach allowed rapid assessment of projected changes from four GCMs spanning a range of potential futures under a high CO₂ emission scenario, for four different downscaling methods. Choice of GCM contributed strongly to the spread in projections, but choice of downscaling method was also influential in the warmest models. Models projected a ~2–5.5 °C increase in surface water temperatures in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the century. Projections of salinity were more uncertain and spatially complex. Models showing increases in winter-spring streamflow generated freshening in the Upper Bay and tributaries, while models with decreased streamflow produced salinity increases. Changes to the Chesapeake Bay environment have implications for fish and invertebrate habitats, as well as migration, spawning phenology, recruitment, and occurrence of pathogens. Our results underline a potentially expanded role of statistical downscaling to complement dynamical approaches in assessing climate change impacts in dynamically challenging estuaries.  相似文献