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1.
We present the results of TRIFFID simultaneous V - and B -band observations of the cores of the globular clusters M15, M92 and NGC 6712. A variability search of their dense centres was made feasible through performing post-exposure image sharpening on the images, increasing the image resolution by a factor of ∼2. The isis implementation of the image subtraction technique developed by Alard & Lupton was then used to detect flux variations in our image sets. We have obtained periods for all observable variables (in our field of view) in NGC 6712 and we have found two new RR Lyrae variables (an RRab and an RRc). We have confirmed three variables in our field of view of the M92. For M15, we detect 48 variables in our field of view, 23 of which are new discoveries. We obtain periods and amplitudes for all variables and classify new ones based on the light-curve shape, the most significant period and the mean magnitude in the V band. Among the detected RR Lyrae we find 19 RRc, 12 RRab and two RRd types. In the subsequent analysis we find a marked increase in RRc over RRab variables in the core. In a refined procedure to search for fainter objects we find no dwarf novae in our field of view of M15. Simulations performed on the data set to quantify our sensitivity to such objects indicate that an upper limit of 10 dwarf novae (at 92 per cent probability) exist in our field of view. The implications this result has on globular clusters are discussed.  相似文献   
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We report on the discovery of 25 variable stars plus 13 suspected variables found in the field of the open cluster NGC 6819. The stars were identified from time-series photometric data obtained on the Isaac Newton Telescope, La Palma, during two observing runs covering the 19 nights between 1999 June  22–30  and 1999 July  22–31  . The variables found include 12 eclipsing binaries with an additional three suspected, nine BY Draconis systems, plus four variables of other types, including one star believed to be a Cepheid. Three of the 15 eclipsing binaries are believed to be cluster members. Details of a further 10 suspected variable stars are also included.  相似文献   
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Climate change and snow-cover duration in the Australian Alps   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
This study uses a model of snow-cover duration, an observed climate data set for the Australian alpine area, and a set of regional climate-change scenarios to assess quantitatively how changes in climate may affect snow cover in the Australian Alps. To begin, a regional interannual climate data set of high spatial resolution is prepared for input to the snow model and the resulting simulated interannual and spatial variations in snow-cover duration are assessed and compared with observations. The model provides a reasonable simulation of the sensitivities of snow-cover duration to changes in temperature and precipitation in the Australian Alps, although its performance is poorer at sites highly marginal for snow cover. (In a separate comparison, the model also performs well for sites in the European Alps.) The input climate data are then modified in line with scenarios of regional climate change based on the results of five global climate models run in enhanced greenhouse experiments. The scenarios are for the years 2030 and 2070 and allow for uncertainty associated with projecting future emissions of greenhouse gases and with estimating the sensitivity of the global climate system to enhanced greenhouse forcing. Attention focuses on the climate changes most favourable (best-case scenario) and least favourable (worst-case scenario) for snow cover amongst the range of climate changes in the scenarios. Under the best case scenario for 2030, simulated average snow-cover duration and the frequency of years of more than 60 days cover decline at all sites considered. However, at the higher sites (e.g., more than 1700 m) the effect is not very marked. For the worst case scenario, a much more dramatic decline in snow conditions is simulated. At higher sites, simulated average snow cover duration roughly halves by 2030 and approaches zero by 2070. At lower sites (around 1400 m), near zero average values are simulated by 2030 (compared to durations of around 60 days for current climate).These simulated changes, ranging between the best and worst case, are likely to be indicative of how climate change will affect natural snow-cover duration in the Australian Alps. However, note that the model does not allow directly for changes in the frequency and intensity of snow-bearing circulation systems, nor do the climate-change scenarios allow possible changes in interannual variability (particularly that due to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and local topographical effects not resolved by global climate models. The simulated changes in snow cover are worthy of further consideration in terms of their implications for the ski industry and tourism, water resources and hydroelectric power, and land-use management and planning.68 Barada Crescent, Aranda ACT 2614, Australia.  相似文献   
5.
The extent of agreement amongst current global climate models (GCMs) on the global pattern of rainfall change simulated under enhanced greenhouse conditions is assessed. We consider the results of five experiments which use a simple mixed layer ocean formulation and five which use a fully dynamic ocean model (coupled experiments). For many regions of the northern hemisphere there is strong agreement amongst both mixed layer and coupled experiments on the sign of simulated rainfall change. However, in the southern hemisphere there are large, and apparently systematic, differences between the coupled and mixed layer experiments. In particular, whereas the mixed layer experiments agree on simulated rainfall increase in summer in the tropics and subtropics of the Australian sector, the coupled experiments agree (although more weakly) on rainfall decreases. These differences appear to relate to the much reduced warming simulated by the coupled experiments in the high latitudes of the southern hemisphere. However, recent oceanographie evidence suggests that this suppressed warming may be considerably overestimated. We conclude therefore that despite the in-principle advantages of coupled models, it may be too soon to base some regionally specific climate change scenarios solely on the results of coupled experiments.  相似文献   
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Paul Hirst  Penny Woolley 《Geoforum》1985,16(2):151-161
Modern social science is concerned with policing the ‘boundary’ between nature and culture, with limiting and excluding phenomena which threaten to challenge its account of the social determination of the attributes of human beings. The paper argues that this boundary defence is an unusually touchy and difficult matter because social science has inherited an Enlightenment conception of man as ‘unique’. Human culture is regarded as different in quality from any possible form of animal association or attainment. At the same time as supporting this ontology it supposes the ‘boundary’ is in some sense a matter of empirical science, capable of specification by reference to evidence. We try to show the confusions these two contradictory circumstances produce by considering two debates: those concerning the possibility of ‘feral’ children and those concerning the uniqueness of language to human beings. It is demonstrated that the modern debates develop theories, issues and lines of dispute which appeared in the eighteenth century.  相似文献   
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Over the past few decades Integrated Assessment (IA) has emerged as an approach to link knowledge and action in a way that is suitable to accommodate uncertainties, complexities and value diversities of global environmental risks. Responding to the complex nature of the climate problem and to the changing role of climate change in the international climate policy process, the scientific community has started to include stakeholder knowledge and perspectives in their assessments. Participatory Integrated Assessment (PIA) is in its early stage of development. Methodology varies strongly across PIA projects. This paper analyzes four recent IA projects of climate change that included knowledge or perspectives from stakeholders in one-way or another. Approaches and methods used turn out to differ in whether stakeholders are involved actively or passively, whether the approach is bottom-up or top-down, and whether the different functions in the IA process are open or closed to stakeholder input. Also, differences can be seen in the degree to which boundaries are pre-set that limit the roles and domains of competencies attributed to each scientific or non-scientific participant (so-called boundary work). The paper discusses pros and cons of the various approaches identified, and outlines heuristics and considerations to assist those who plan, design or fund new IA processes with stakeholder input on what approaches best to choose in view of the objectives for stakeholder involvement, in view of the role that the IA plays in the overall risk management process and in view of considerations regarding boundary work.  相似文献   
10.
The Galway/DIAS Image Sharpening Camera, TRIFFID, has been used to make observations in two colours of the centre of the post-core-collapse globular cluster M15. We present here our analysis of the photometry in B over two seasons. We have combined the complementary qualities of the HST 's high astrometric precision and TRIFFID's extended coverage and photometric precision, to perform crowded-field photometry in the innermost region of M15. Our technique virtually eliminates the problem of extreme crowding which has hitherto hampered studies of the variable star populations in globular cluster cores, and thereby provides an extension of the HST 's capability. Candidate variables detected with the HST have been confirmed and monitored over longer periods. We show that most of these are RR Lyrae stars, and that one is a short-period Type II Cepheid (the third to be discovered in M15). Our photometric study also produced evidence of a similar number of new variables. These also appear to be RR Lyrae stars, except for a possible eclipsing system. Further data from an upgraded version of TRIFFID have recently been obtained to help to refine the light curves of all these objects.  相似文献   
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