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1.
Sustainable water resources management require scientifically sound information on precipitation, as it plays a key role in hydrological responses in a catchment. In recent years, mesoscale weather models in conjunction with hydrological models have gained great attention as they can provide high‐resolution downscaled weather variables. Many cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) have been developed and incorporated into three‐dimensional Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) mesoscale model 5 (MM5). This study has performed a comprehensive evaluation of four CPSs (the Anthes–Kuo, Grell, Betts–Miller and Kain–Fritsch93 schemes) to identify how their inclusion influences the mesoscale model's precipitation estimation capabilities. The study has also compared these four CPSs in terms of variability in rainfall estimation at various horizontal and vertical levels. For this purpose, the MM5 was nested down to resolution of 81 km for Domain 1 (domain span 21 × 81 km) and 3 km for Domain 4 (domain span 16 × 3 km), respectively, with vertical resolutions at 23, 40 and 53 vertical levels. The study was carried out at the Brue catchment in Southwest England using both the ERA‐40 reanalysis data and the land‐based observation data. The performances of four CPs were evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate the amount of cumulative rainfall in 4 months in 1995 representing the four seasonal months, namely, January (winter), March (spring), July (summer) and October (autumn). It is observed that the Anthes–Kuo scheme has produced inferior precipitation values during spring and autumn seasons while simulations during winter and summer were consistently good. The Betts–Miller scheme has produced some reasonable results, particularly at the small‐scale domain (3 km grid size) during winter and summer. The KF2 scheme was the best scheme for the larger‐scale (81 km grid size) domain during winter season at both 23 and 53 vertical levels. This scheme tended to underestimate rainfall for other seasons including the small‐scale domain (3 km grid size) in the mesoscale. The Grell scheme was the best scheme in simulating rainfall rates, and was found to be superior to other three schemes with consistently better results in all four seasons and in different domain scales. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
2.
Recent catastrophic debris flows in Luding county, SW China: geological hazards, rainfall analysis and dynamic characteristics 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
About 127 debris flow gullies have been identified, and debris flows have been an important type of geological hazards in
Luding County, affecting cities, towns, rural areas, scenic spots and human’s engineering projects, such as mining and waterpower
utilizing equipments. In this summary paper, recent two catastrophic debris flow events occurred on June 30, 2005, in Chuni
town, in the central of the county, and on August 11, 2005, in Hailuogou scenic spot, in the southwest of the county, respectively,
are reviewed. The debris flow events are introduced on the basis of field investigation and RS interpretation and the triggering
factors for flow occurrence are identified. Furthermore, the rainfall related to flow occurrence including antecedent rainfall
and intraday rainfall is analyzed, and a power-law function which can be used as a basic warning line is established based
on both antecedent effective rainfall and intraday rainfall. Then dynamic parameters such as flow velocity and flow discharge
are calculated, respectively. Through comparison and discussion, some conclusions are made including (1) The antecedent rainfall
played an important role for debris flows which generated predominately based on the slope-instability due to the saturated
loose sediments; (2) Despite slower flow velocity and smaller magnitude, the slope-type debris flows just like 2005-6-30 debris
flows usually lead to serious damages for the difficulty to forecast and to prevent; (3) The mistaken recognition on debris
flow hazards and lack of prevention consciousness strengthen the hazard and damage degree. This research is of certain significance
for the prevention and mitigation of debris flow hazards and for the planning of the town building and tourism development
in the future. 相似文献
3.
Austin H. Becker Michele Acciaro Regina Asariotis Edgard Cabrera Laurent Cretegny Philippe Crist Miguel Esteban Andrew Mather Steve Messner Susumu Naruse Adolf K. Y. Ng Stefan Rahmstorf Michael Savonis Dong-Wook Song Vladimir Stenek Adonis F. Velegrakis 《Climatic change》2013,120(4):683-695
With 80 % of world trade carried by sea, seaports provide crucial linkages in global supply-chains and are essential for the ability of all countries to access global markets. Seaports are likely to be affected directly and indirectly by climatic changes, with broader implications for international trade and development. Due to their coastal location, seaports are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events associated with increasing sea levels and tropical storm activity, as illustrated by hurricane “Sandy”. In view of their strategic role as part of the globalized trading system, adapting ports in different parts of the world to the impacts of climate change is of considerable importance. Reflecting the views of a diverse group of stakeholders with expertise in climate science, engineering, economics, policy, and port management, this essay highlights the climate change challenge for ports and suggests a way forward through the adoption of some initial measures. These include both “soft” and “hard” adaptations that may be spearheaded by individual port entities, but will require collaboration and support from a broad range of public and private sector stakeholders and from society at large. In particular, the essay highlights a need to shift to more holistic planning, investment and operation. 相似文献
4.
Shigehiro Fujino Hajime Naruse Dan Matsumoto Norihiko Sakakura Apichart Suphawajruksakul Thanawat Jarupongsakul 《Island Arc》2010,19(3):389-398
Measurements of thickness and grain size along flow‐parallel transects across onshore deposits of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami revealed macroscopic horizontal variations and provided new insights into tsunami sedimentation. The tsunami caused severe erosion of beaches, river mouths, and the shallow seafloor along the coast of southwestern Thailand and supplied sufficient sediment to deposit a kilometer‐wide blanket of sand on the land surface. The tsunami deposits generally fine landward with some fluctuations caused by local entrainment and settlement of sediments. Sediments of medium and fine sand are restricted to a few hundreds of meters inland from their source, whereas finer grained sediments were suspended longer and deposited 1 km or more inland. Although the thickness of the tsunami deposits is strongly influenced by local topography, they generally thin landward. In areas of low‐relief topography, the rate of landward thinning is exponential and reflects the dominance of sediment supply to nearshore areas over that to areas farther inland. 相似文献
5.
Input data selection for solar radiation estimation 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Model input data selection is a complicated process, especially for non‐linear dynamic systems. The questions on which inputs should be used and how long the training data should be for model development have been hard to solve in practice. Despite the importance of this subject, there have been insufficient reports in the published literature about inter‐comparison between different model input data selection techniques. In this study, several methods (i.e. the Gamma test, entropy theory, AIC (Akaike's information criterion)/BIC (Bayesian information criterion) have been explored with the aid of non‐linear models of LLR (local linear regression) and ANN (artificial neural networks). The methodology is tested in estimation of solar radiation in the Brue Catchment of England. It has been found that the conventional model selection tools such as AIC/BIC failed to demonstrate their functionality. Although the entropy theory is quite powerful and efficient to compute, it failed to pick up the best input combinations. On the other hand, it is very encouraging to find that the new Gamma test was able to choose the best input selection. However, it is surprising to note that the Gamma test significantly underestimated the required training data while the entropy theory did a better job in this aspect. This is the first study to compare the performance of those techniques for model input selections and still there are many unsolved puzzles. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
6.
Yukari Takeuchi Renji Naruse Kazuhide Satow Nobuyoshi Ishikawa 《Global and Planetary Change》1999,22(1-4)
Ablation characteristics of five glaciers in Patagonia and New Zealand were compared. Investigated glaciers were Tyndall and Moreno in southern Patagonia, Soler and San Rafael in northern Patagonia, and Franz Josef in New Zealand. Micro-meteorological observations were carried out at the glaciers and the heat balance components were estimated. At Franz Josef and Soler glaciers, the sensible heat flux is the largest and the latent heat flux is the second, and they are larger than the net radiation. At San Rafael Glacier, the net radiation is the largest and the latent heat flux is the smallest component, which is similar to Moreno and Tyndall glaciers. Though the latent heat flux is the smallest component at San Rafael Glacier, it is more than twice as large as that at Tyndall Glacier and contributes substantially to ice melting. The ratios of heat balance components were very different among glaciers, but the total heat flux ranged from about 240 to 300 W m−2 showing little difference among glaciers. 相似文献
7.
2020年3月30日,四川省凉山州西昌市经久乡发生森林大火,山火燃烧后形成的山火灰和烧焦土体在强降雨作用下极易启动形成泥石流,给西昌市泸山、琼海景区生态环境及当地百姓生命财产安全带来潜在地质灾害风险。以西昌市安哈镇响水沟左岸3#支沟为例,采用野外调查、无人机航拍、地球物理探测、现场及室内实验等手段,对2020年5月1日该沟发生的火后泥石流流体特征、动力学参数及成因机制等开展研究,系统分析了山火及降雨过程对该次火后泥石流形成的影响机制。该成果可为系统认识西昌泸山“3·30”山火地区火后泥石流的运动特征、物源规模、激发雨量及其发展趋势研判提供科学参考。 相似文献
8.
曲水杂岩体位于冈底斯构造-岩浆岩带东段南缘,其岩浆活动与雅鲁藏布江新特提斯洋壳向北俯冲、消减以及印度与欧亚板块碰撞息息相关。本文以曲水县-昌果乡广泛分布的中酸性花岗岩体为研究对象,进行了系统的LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年代学和岩石地球化学研究。结果表明,曲水杂岩体由3期时代和规模不同的花岗质岩体构成,其LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年龄分别为95.2±1.0～88.5±1.0Ma、65.2±0.6Ma和48.5±0.5～43.3±0.7Ma;岩石地球化学研究表明,晚白垩世和古新世花岗岩以中性-中酸性为主,属钙碱性系列,具中铝特征,A/CNK比值小于1.1,属于I型花岗岩,是玄武质下地壳部分熔融产物,指示其形成于特提斯洋壳俯冲过程的岛弧构造环境。始新世花岗岩以高钾钙碱性系列为主,并出现钾玄岩系列,具偏铝-过铝质特征,指示岩浆上侵过程中遭受了不同程度的地壳物质混染,其形成于印度-欧亚板块强烈碰撞的构造环境。 相似文献
9.
The depositional environments and bivalve assemblages are determined for the Upper Cretaceous Hinoshima Formation of the Himenoura Group, Kamishima, Amakusa Islands, Kyushu, Japan. The Hinoshima Formation is characterized by a thick transgressive succession that varies from incised-valley-fill deposits to submarine slope deposits with high aggradation rates of depositional systems. The incised valley is filled with fluvial, bayhead delta, brackish-water estuary, and marine embayment deposits, and is overlain by thick slope deposits.Shallow marine bivalves are grouped into five fossil assemblages according to species composition: Glycymeris amakusensis (foreset beds of a bayhead delta), Nippononectes tamurai (foreset beds of a bayhead delta), Ezonuculana mactraeformis–Nucula formosa (central bay), Glycymeris amakusensis–Apiotrigonia minor (slope), and Inoceramus higoensis–Parvamussium yubarensis (slope). These bivalve assemblages all represent autochthonous and parautochthonous conditions except for a Glycymeris amakusensis–Apiotrigonia minor assemblage found in debris flow and slump deposits. The life habitats of these bivalves and the compositions of the assemblages are discussed in terms of the ecological history of fossil bivalves of the mid- to Late Cretaceous. 相似文献
10.
Planform evolution of deltas with graded alluvial topsets: Insights from three‐dimensional tank experiments,geometric considerations and field applications 
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下载免费PDF全文 Tetsuji Muto Ryuji Furubayashi Arti Tomer Tomoyuki Sato Wonsuck Kim Hajime Naruse Gary Parker 《Sedimentology》2016,63(7):2158-2189
The profile of a river that conveys sediment without net deposition and net erosion is referred to as ‘graded’ with respect to vertical aggradation of the river segment. Three experimental series, designed in terms of the autostratigraphic view of alluvial grade, were conducted to clarify the diagnostic spatial behaviour of graded alluvial–deltaic rivers: an ‘R series’, which utilized a moving boundary setting with a stationary base level; an ‘F series’ in a fixed boundary setting with a stationary base level to produce ‘forced grade’; and an ‘M series’ in a moving boundary setting with constant base‐level fall to produce ‘autogenic grade.’ The results of the three experimental series, combined with geometrical modelling of the effects of basin water depth and other experimental data, suggest the following: (i) in a graded alluvial–deltaic system, lateral shifting and avulsing of active distributary channels are suppressed regardless of whether the downstream boundary of the deltaic system is fixed; (ii) in a delta with a downstream‐fixed boundary, the graded streams are stabilized within a valley that is incised in the axial part of the delta plain, whereby the alluvial plain outside the valley is abandoned and terraced; (iii) in moving boundary settings, the graded river simply extends basinward as a linearly elongated channel and lobe system without cutting a valley; and (iv) a modern forced‐graded alluvial river is most likely to be found in a valley incised into a fan delta in front of very deep water, and the stratigraphic signal of fossil autogenic‐graded rivers will be found in deltaic successions that accumulated in the outer to marginal areas of deltaic continental shelves during sea‐level falls. This renewed autostratigraphic view of alluvial grade suggests a thorough reconsideration of the conventional understanding that an alluvial river feeding a progradational delta is graded with a stationary base level. 相似文献