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A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge 下载免费PDF全文
Yan Liu Yonghong Hao Yonghui Fan Tongke Wang Xueli Huo Youcun Liu Tian‐Chyi J. Yeh 《水文研究》2014,28(20):5251-5258
The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Jet-Chau Wen Jyun-Lin Chen Tian-Chyi Jim Yeh Yu-Li Wang Shao-Yang Huang Zhong Tian Chia-Yii Yu 《Ground water》2020,58(1):79-92
Drawdown data from independent pumping tests have widely been used to validate the estimated hydraulic parameters from inverse modeling or hydraulic tomography (HT). Yet, the independent pumping test has not been clearly defined. Therefore, the goal of this paper is to define this independent pumping test concept, based on the redundant or nonredundant information about aquifer heterogeneity embedded in the observed heads during cross-hole pumping tests. The definition of complete, moderate redundancy and high nonredundancy of information are stipulated using cross-correlation analysis of the relationship between the head and heterogeneity. Afterward, data from numerical experiments and field sequential pumping test campaigns reinforce the concept and the definition. 相似文献
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Astronomy Reports - A review of the achievements of space geodesy in the 21st century, represented by the successful realization of the CHAMP, GOCE, and GRACE missions, is presented. The main... 相似文献
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Yu-Li Wang Liang-Cheng Chang Fei Liu Yen-Te Ho Tzu Bin Wang Tian-Chyi Jim Yeh Jui-Pin Tsai 《Ground water》2022,60(4):518-529
Groundwater responses measured from multiple wells at different depths are essential for delineating the aquifer heterogeneity using hydraulic tomography (HT). In general, conducting HT requires many wells because traditional well monitoring is usually partially open at a specific depth interval or is fully penetrating. Accordingly, conducting an HT survey is typically costly and time-consuming. To tackle these issues, a new multi-level monitoring system (MLMS) for the HT survey was developed using the fiber Bragg grating (FBG) technique. This FBG MLMS could collect the depth-discrete groundwater observations from a fully penetrated 2-inch well. Three field campaigns were conducted to validate the capability of the FBG MLMS for HT surveys. The results show that the accuracy and stability of this MLMS are reliable and that FBG MLMS is beneficial for conducting an HT survey. Specifically, compared to the traditional monitoring well in an injection event, this FBG MLMS can concurrently cause an increase in the number of cross-hole tests several times and collect many more head observations than the standard methods, resulting in the observed flow fields efficiently reaching ergodic conditions and effectively improving the accuracy of the estimated hydraulic heterogeneity. Therefore, the FBG MLMS could be an alternative MLMS for efficiently and economically conducting an HT survey. 相似文献
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Zaiyong Zhang Wenke Wang Chengcheng Gong Zhoufeng Wang Lei Duan Tian‐chyi Jim Yeh Peiyuan Yu 《水文研究》2019,33(9):1338-1348
In cold climates, the process of freezing–thawing significantly affects the ground surface heat balance and water balance. To better understand the mechanism of evaporation from seasonally frozen soils, we performed field experiments at different water table depths on vegetated and bare ground in a semiarid region in China. Soil moisture and temperature, air temperature, precipitation, and water table depths were measured over a 5‐month period (November 1, 2016, to March 14, 2017). The evaporation, which was calculated by a mass balance method, was high in the periods of thawing and low in the periods of freezing. Increased water table depth in the freezing period led to high soil moisture in the upper soil layer, whereas lower initial groundwater levels during freezing–thawing decreased the cumulative evaporation. The extent of evaporation from the bare ground was the same in summer as in winter. These results indicate that a noteworthy amount of evaporation from the bare ground is present during freezing–thawing. Finally, the roots of Salix psammophila could increase the soil temperature. This study presents an insight into the joint effects of soil moisture, temperature, ground vegetation, and water table depths on the evaporation from seasonally frozen soils. Furthermore, it also has important implications for water management in seasonally frozen areas. 相似文献
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Vertical wells with radial extension at the well bottom can improve the rate of water production. No study has yet investigated the effects of the transient state and anisotropy in directional hydraulic conductivities on the wellbore flux rate for this type of well. This study derives a semianalytical transient drawdown solution for constant-head pumping at a fully penetrating well radially extended at the bottom of a confined, anisotropic aquifer by applying Laplace transform and separation of variables as well as conducting a Fourier analysis. The results of this new solution indicate that transient and steady-state wellbore flux rates can be increased by a factor of two for greater radial extension of the well. Compared with an isotropic aquifer (a ratio of vertical and horizontal hydraulic conductivities equal to one), an anisotropic aquifer with the ratio less than one may produce a higher transient wellbore flux rate and lower steady-state wellbore flux rate. Moreover, the time required to achieve the steady-state wellbore flux rate can be substantially affected by anisotropy of the aquifer. 相似文献
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Fluid‐filled granular soils experience changes in total stress because of earth and oceanic tides, earthquakes, erosion, sedimentation, and changes in atmospheric pressure. The pore volume may deform in response to the changes in stress and this may lead to changes in pore fluid pressure. The transient fluid flow can therefore be induced by the gradient in excess pressure in a fluid‐saturated porous medium. This work demonstrates the use of stochastic methodology in prediction of induced one‐dimensional field‐scale groundwater flow through a heterogeneous aquifer. A closed‐form of mean groundwater flux is developed to quantify the induced field‐scale mean behavior of groundwater flow and analyze the impacts of the spatial correlation length scale of log hydraulic conductivity and the pore compressibility. The findings provided here could be useful for the rational planning and management of groundwater resources in aquifers that contain lenses with large vertical aquifer matrix compressibility values. 相似文献