On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources     

Charles A. Stock  Michael A. Alexander  Nicholas A. Bond  Keith M. Brander  William W.L. Cheung  Enrique N. Curchitser  Thomas L. Delworth  John P. Dunne  Stephen M. Griffies  Melissa A. Haltuch  Jonathan A. Hare  Anne B. Hollowed  Patrick Lehodey  Simon A. Levin  Jason S. Link  Kenneth A. Rose  Ryan R. Rykaczewski  Jorge L. Sarmiento  Ronald J. Stouffer  Franklin B. Schwing  Francisco E. Werner 《Progress in Oceanography》2011,88(1-4):1-27

The study of climate impacts on Living Marine Resources (LMRs) has increased rapidly in recent years with the availability of climate model simulations contributed to the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Collaboration between climate and LMR scientists and shared understanding of critical challenges for such applications are essential for developing robust projections of climate impacts on LMRs. This paper assesses present approaches for generating projections of climate impacts on LMRs using IPCC-class climate models, recommends practices that should be followed for these applications, and identifies priority developments that could improve current projections. Understanding of the climate system and its representation within climate models has progressed to a point where many climate model outputs can now be used effectively to make LMR projections. However, uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly biases and inter-model spread at regional to local scales), coarse climate model resolution, and the uncertainty and potential complexity of the mechanisms underlying the response of LMRs to climate limit the robustness and precision of LMR projections. A variety of techniques including the analysis of multi-model ensembles, bias corrections, and statistical and dynamical downscaling can ameliorate some limitations, though the assumptions underlying these approaches and the sensitivity of results to their application must be assessed for each application. Developments in LMR science that could improve current projections of climate impacts on LMRs include improved understanding of the multi-scale mechanisms that link climate and LMRs and better representations of these mechanisms within more holistic LMR models. These developments require a strong baseline of field and laboratory observations including long time series and measurements over the broad range of spatial and temporal scales over which LMRs and climate interact. Priority developments for IPCC-class climate models include improved model accuracy (particularly at regional and local scales), inter-annual to decadal-scale predictions, and the continued development of earth system models capable of simulating the evolution of both the physical climate system and biosphere. Efforts to address these issues should occur in parallel and be informed by the continued application of existing climate and LMR models.  相似文献   

Erratum to: Pacific Basin climate variability and patterns of Northeast Pacific marine fish production [Progress on Oceanography 49 (2001) 257-282]     

Anne Babcock Hollowed  Steven R. Hare  Warren S. Wooster 《Progress in Oceanography》2002,55(3-4)

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A cross-ecosystem comparison of spatial and temporal patterns of covariation in the recruitment of functionally analogous fish stocks   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Bernard A. Megrey  Jonathan A. Hare  William T. Stockhausen  Are Dommasnes  Harald Gjster  William Overholtz  Sarah Gaichas  Georg Skaret  Jannike Falk-Petersen  Jason S. Link  Kevin D. Friedland 《Progress in Oceanography》2009,81(1-4):63

Temporal and spatial patterns of recruitment (R) and spawning stock biomass (S) variability were compared among functionally analogous species and similar feeding guilds from six marine ecosystems. Data were aggregated into four regions including the Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank, the Norwegian/Barents Seas, the eastern Bering Sea, and the Gulf of Alaska. Variability was characterized by calculating coefficients of variation and anomalies for three response variables: ln(R), ln(R/S), and stock–recruit model residuals. Patterns of synchrony and asynchrony in the response variables were examined among and between ecosystems, between- and within-ocean basins and among functionally analogous species groups using pair-wise correlation analysis corrected for within-time series autocorrelation, multivariate cross-correlation analyses and regime shift detectors. Time series trends in response variables showed consistent within basin similarities and consistent and coherent differences between the Atlantic and Pacific basin ecosystems. Regime shift detection algorithms identified two broad-scale regime shift time periods for the pelagic feeding guild (1972–1976 and 1999–2002) and possibly one for the benthic feeding guild (1999–2002). No spatial patterns in response variable coefficients of variation were observed. Results from multivariate cross-correlation analysis showed similar trends. The data suggest common external factors act in synchrony on stocks within ocean basins but temporal stock patterns, often of the same species or functional group, between basins change in opposition to each other. Basin-scale results (similar within but different between) suggest that the two geographically broad areas are connected by unknown mechanisms that, depending on the year, may influence the two basins in opposite ways. This work demonstrates that commonalities and synchronies in recruitment fluctuations can be found across geographically distant ecosystems but biophysical causes of the fluctuations remain difficult to identify.  相似文献   

Developing Governance Principles for Public Natural Resources     

Darragh Hare  Ann B. Forstchen  Christian A. Smith  Daniel J. Decker 《社会与自然资源》2018,31(3):382-388

Wildlife governance principles (WGPs) identify desirable governance characteristics for wildlife conservation in the United States (US). The types of institutional, ecological, and socio-cultural challenges that WGPs are designed to address also affect governance of public natural resources other than wildlife and in places other than the US. This raises the possibility that a similar set of governance principles might help natural resource professionals working in other resource contexts address the particular challenges they face. We describe the process by which we developed WGPs and offer seven practically oriented questions to help natural resource professionals ascertain whether a similar set of principles could improve governance in their context. In some contexts, minor modification of WGPs might be appropriate; in others, the process by which we developed WGPs could serve as a blueprint for formulating appropriate principles.  相似文献   

The amino acid composition of estuarine colloidal material     

A.C. Sigleo  P.E. Hare  G.R. Helz 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1983,17(1):87-96

Amino acids were determined in estuarine colloidal and particulate material from near surface waters ranging from fresh to brackish water (12 g kg^?1 salinity). The hydrolizable amino acids and associated ammonia account for an average of 80% of the nitrogen present in colloidal samples, and approximately 75% of the nitrogen from particulate fractions of the same samples. The relative proportions of these amino acids are similar to those of a cultured estuarine diatom. There are no significant amounts of D amino acids, or non-protein amino acids characteristic of bacteria in sediments and soil. A single deep-water sample (25 m) shows some evidence of bottom mud resuspension by the presence of a possible aspartic acid-hydroxyproline dimer.  相似文献   

Changing poverty distribution in Bolivia: the role of rural–urban migration and urban services     

Greg O’Hare  Sara Rivas 《GeoJournal》2007,68(4):307-326

Bolivia is a country with high levels of poverty and inequality among its peoples and regions. For the nation and its urban and rural areas, trends in the social and spatial distribution of poverty (and extreme poverty) are identified from 1976 to 2003 using UBN data with minor support where appropriate from poverty lines. The main survey between 1992 and 2001 uses composite and selected UBN to track detailed poverty change for the country’s nine departments, its ten largest cities and a selection of other smaller urban and rural municipalities. Because of rising background increases in population in the various surveyed administrative units, many instances of relative reductions in poverty are accompanied by rising absolute increases. Marked spatial variations in poverty and development in the country over the last several decades are identified as the main driver for the country’s quickening pace of rural–urban migration. As a result, the paper concludes by assessing two different but closely related views. One investigation tests the notion that because more poor people have been living in Bolivia’s cities than in its rural areas since the mid to late 1990s, rapid rural–urban migration has simply shifted the locus of poverty from the countryside to the cities in a process called, the ‘urbanisation of poverty.’ A second, more challenging, investigation assesses the view that the flow of poor rural people to the better serviced urban areas of Bolivia has actually acted to alleviate national poverty levels.  相似文献   

Climates of the soviet union | P.E. Lydolph, 1977. World survey of climatology, 7. Elsevier,Amsterdam, 443 pp., U.S. $ 81.75, Dfl. 200.00     

F. Kenneth Hare 《Earth》1978,14(2):174-175

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Amino acid precursors in lunar fines: limits to the contribution of jet exhaust     

Sidney W. Fox  Kaoru Harada  P.E. Hare 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》1976,40(9):1069-1071

A sample of lunar fines collected at a maximum distance, 6.5 km, from the descent engine on Apollo 17 has been analyzed for total amino acids obtainable by hydrolysis of aqueous extracts. The minimum amounts of amino acids, calculated for a disc of 6 km radius are 10⁴–10⁵ times those which could be contributed by the lunar module jet exhaust, on the basis of conservatively limiting assumptions. The amino acids thus obtained are not explainable as due to chemical or biological contamination; their source is accordingly inferred as lunar. Under the conditions of hydrolysis of lunar extracts, cyanide is found to be converted, almost exclusively to glycine, to an extent of 10^?4.  相似文献   

Water-Level Fluctuations Due to Barometric Pressure Changes in an Isolated Portion of an Unconfined Aquifer   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Paul Wm. Hare  Ralph E. Morse 《Ground water》1997,35(4):667-671

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Long‐term annual surface heat and water balances over Canada and the United States South of 60°N: Reconciliation of precipitation,run‐off and temperature fields     

F. Kenneth Hare 《大气与海洋》2013,51(2):127-153

Abstract

The analysis compares the observed field of run‐off (assumed correct) with adjusted precipitation over North America (as amended by den Hartog and LeDrew over Canada) and derives the principal hydroclimatological ratios for each five‐degree latitude‐longitude square. The amended precipitation field yields values of the Budyko dry ness index close to values suggested by the vegetation distribution. The Priestley‐Taylor parameter, α, lies between unity (equilibrium) and potential (1.26) values over much of humid North America, but exceeds these values in the northwest Pacific squares, where advective heating may be the cause. Other regions of strong seasonal advective heating (e.g. the Great Plains) do not appear to influence the distribution strongly. A weighted convective forcing temperature is derived, varying from 298 K in the extreme south to below 285 K in the north. This function (and the Bowen ratio) achieve improbable values in northern Labrador‐ Ungava. The precipitation, run‐off and net radiation régimes appear still to be out of balance in these squares. An adjustment of either precipitation or net radiation by about a tenth corrects the imbalance, but the method is not capable of deciding which field (or both) is in error. Over the rest of the continent the adjusted precipitation field now appears to be in balance with observed run‐off and temperature distributions.  相似文献