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1.
Reconstructions of the timing and frequency of past eruptions are important to assess the propensity for future volcanic activity, yet in volcanic areas such as the East African Rift only piecemeal eruption histories exist. Understanding the volcanic history of scoria-cone fields, where eruptions are often infrequent and deposits strongly weathered, is particularly challenging. Here we reconstruct a history of volcanism from scoria cones situated along the eastern shoulders of the Kenya–Tanzania Rift, using a sequence of tephra (volcanic ash) layers preserved in the ~250-ka sediment record of Lake Chala near Mount Kilimanjaro. Seven visible and two non-visible (crypto-) tephra layers in the Lake Chala sequence are attributed to activity from the Mt Kilimanjaro (northern Tanzania) and the Chyulu Hills (southern Kenya) volcanic fields, on the basis of their glass chemistry, textural characteristics and known eruption chronology. The Lake Chala record of eruptions from scoria cones in the Chyulu Hills volcanic field confirms geological and historical evidence of its recent activity, and provides first-order age estimates for seven previously unknown eruptions. Long and well-resolved sedimentary records such as that of Lake Chala have significant potential for resolving regional eruption chronologies spanning hundreds of thousands of years.  相似文献   
2.
Structural health monitoring of large multispan flexible bridges is particularly important because of their important role in civil infrastructure and transportation systems. In this study, the response of the Yokohama Bay Bridge (YBB), a three‐span cable‐stayed bridge, to the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake is used to perform multi‐input multi‐output system identification studies. The extensive multicomponent measurements are also used to develop and validate data‐driven nonlinear mathematical models that can predict the response of YBB to various earthquake records and can accurately estimate its damping characteristics when the system is driven into the nonlinear response range. A combination of least‐square (parametric) and neural network (nonparametric) approaches is used to develop the mathematical models, along with time‐marching techniques for dynamic response calculations. It is shown that the nonlinear mathematical models perform better than the equivalent linear models, both for response prediction and damping estimation. The importance of having an accurate approach for quantifying the damping due to the variety of nonlinear features in the YBB response is shown. This study demonstrates the significance of constructing robust mathematical models that can capture the correct physics of the underlying system and that can be used for computational purposes to augment experimental studies. Given the lack of suitable data sets for full‐scale structures under extreme loads, the availability of the long‐duration measurements from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and its many strong aftershocks provides an excellent opportunity to perform the analyses presented in this study. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
3.

Background

Concern about climate change has motivated France to reduce its reliance on fossil fuel by setting targets for increased biomass-based renewable energy production. This study quantifies the carbon costs and benefits for the French forestry sector in meeting these targets. A forest growth and harvest simulator was developed for French forests using recent forest inventory data, and the wood-use chain was reconstructed from national wood product statistics. We then projected wood production, bioenergy production, and carbon balance for three realistic intensification scenarios and a business-as-usual scenario. These intensification scenarios targeted either overstocked, harvest-delayed or currently actively managed stands.

Results

All three intensification strategies produced 11.6–12.4 million tonnes of oil equivalent per year of wood-based energy by 2026, which corresponds to the target assigned to French wood-energy to meet the EU 2020 renewable energy target. Sustaining this level past 2026 will be challenging, let alone further increasing it. Although energy production targets can be reached, the management intensification required will degrade the near-term carbon balance of the forestry sector, compared to continuing present-day management. Even for the best-performing intensification strategy, i.e., reducing the harvest diameter of actively managed stands, the carbon benefits would only become apparent after 2040. The carbon balance of a strategy putting abandoned forests back into production would only break even by 2055; the carbon balance from increasing thinning in managed but untended stands would not break even within the studied time periods, i.e. 2015–2045 and 2046–2100. Owing to the temporal dynamics in the components of the carbon balance, i.e., the biomass stock in the forest, the carbon stock in wood products, and substitution benefits, the merit order of the examined strategies varies over time.

Conclusions

No single solution was found to improve the carbon balance of the forestry sector by 2040 in a way that also met energy targets. We therefore searched for the intensification scenario that produces energy at the lowest carbon cost. Reducing rotation time of actively managed stands is slightly more efficient than targeting harvest-delayed stands, but in both cases, each unit of energy produced has a carbon cost that only turns into a benefit between 2060 and 2080.
  相似文献   
4.
The peak floor acceleration (PFA) is a critical parameter influencing the performance of non‐structural elements in buildings. This paper develops a response spectrum analysis method based on the complete quadratic combination (CQC) rule to estimate the PFA. The method accounts for the rigid contribution of truncated higher modes and the cross‐correlations between all pairs of modes. The approximation is introduced in the time domain and then formulated in the frequency domain by CQC. Application of the method to a continuous cantilever beam idealizing a building with shear walls is presented and compared with alternative formulations. The proposed method is able to provide a consistent estimation of the PFA along the entire structure, not only where the PFA is principally influenced by the first few flexible modes but also where the PFA is mainly related to the rigid response of the structure, for example, near its base. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
5.
Fluid‐filled granular soils experience changes in total stress because of earth and oceanic tides, earthquakes, erosion, sedimentation, and changes in atmospheric pressure. The pore volume may deform in response to the changes in stress and this may lead to changes in pore fluid pressure. The transient fluid flow can therefore be induced by the gradient in excess pressure in a fluid‐saturated porous medium. This work demonstrates the use of stochastic methodology in prediction of induced one‐dimensional field‐scale groundwater flow through a heterogeneous aquifer. A closed‐form of mean groundwater flux is developed to quantify the induced field‐scale mean behavior of groundwater flow and analyze the impacts of the spatial correlation length scale of log hydraulic conductivity and the pore compressibility. The findings provided here could be useful for the rational planning and management of groundwater resources in aquifers that contain lenses with large vertical aquifer matrix compressibility values.  相似文献   
6.
The conversion of bedrock to regolith marks the inception of critical zone processes, but the factors that regulate it remain poorly understood. Although the thickness and degree of weathering of regolith are widely thought to be important regulators of the development of regolith and its water‐storage potential, the functional relationships between regolith properties and the processes that generate it remain poorly documented. This is due in part to the fact that regolith is difficult to characterize by direct observations over the broad scales needed for process‐based understanding of the critical zone. Here we use seismic refraction and resistivity imaging techniques to estimate variations in regolith thickness and porosity across a forested slope and swampy meadow in the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory (SSCZO). Inferred seismic velocities and electrical resistivities image a weathering zone ranging in thickness from 10 to 35 m (average = 23 m) along one intensively studied transect. The inferred weathering zone consists of roughly equal thicknesses of saprolite (P‐velocity < 2 km s?1) and moderately weathered bedrock (P‐velocity = 2–4 km s?1). A minimum‐porosity model assuming dry pore space shows porosities as high as 50% near the surface, decreasing to near zero at the base of weathered rock. Physical properties of saprolite samples from hand augering and push cores are consistent with our rock physics model when variations in pore saturation are taken into account. Our results indicate that saprolite is a crucial reservoir of water, potentially storing an average of 3 m3 m?2 of water along a forested slope in the headwaters of the SSCZO. When coupled with published erosion rates from cosmogenic nuclides, our geophysical estimates of weathering zone thickness imply regolith residence times on the order of 105 years. Thus, soils at the surface today may integrate weathering over glacial–interglacial fluctuations in climate. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
7.

Holocene sediments from southern Spencer Gulf are cool‐water carbonate‐rich gravels and sands, dominated by molluscs and Bryozoa. Five sedimentary fades are recognized: (i) molluscan gravel; (ii) branching coralline‐algal gravel, associated with shallow partially protected environments; (iii) molluscan‐biyozoan sand; (iv) mixed bioclastic sand, representative of the deeper central region of the lower gulf; and (v) bryozoan gravel, an isolated fades developed in a semi‐protected micro‐environment. The southern gulf is characterized by complex oceanographic conditions together with variations in water depth and substrate. The sediments share the characteristics of both the southern shelf and upper Spencer Gulf. Grain‐size distribution and sedimentary facies are controlled by a combination of all the above processes. Past sea level fluctuations are recognized from sea floor strand‐line deposits. The relic component of the palimpsest sediments has eroded from the Pleistocene aeolianite dunes. The sediments, therefore, reflect both the modern marine and past environments.  相似文献   
8.
We present the first testate amoeba‐based palaeohydrological reconstruction from the Swiss Alps, and the first depth to the water table (DWT) calibration dataset for this region. Compared to existing models, our new calibration dataset performs well (RMSEP = 4.88), despite the length of the water table gradient covered (53 cm). The present‐day topography and vegetation of the study mire Mauntschas suggest that it is partly ombrotrophic (large Sphagnum fuscum hummocks, one of which was the coring site) but mostly under the minerotrophic influence of springs in the mire and runoff from the surrounding area. Ombrotrophic Sphagnum fuscum hummocks developed at the sampling site only during the last 50 years, when testate amoebae indicate a shift towards dry and/or acid conditions. Prior to AD 1950 the water table was much higher, suggesting that the influence of the mineral‐rich water prevented the development of ombrotrophic hummocks. The reconstructed DWT correlated with Pinus cembra pollen accumulation rates, suggesting that testate amoebae living on the mire and P. cembra growing outside of it partly respond to the same factor(s). Finally, temperature trends from the nearby meteorological station paralleled trends in reconstructed DWT. However, contrary to other studies made on raised bogs of northwestern Europe, the highest correlation was observed for winter temperature, despite the fact that testate amoebae would more logically respond to moisture conditions during the growing season. The observed correlation with winter temperature might reflect a control of winter severity on surface moisture during at least the first part of the growing season, through snow melt and soil frost phenomena influencing run‐off. More ecohydrological work on sub‐alpine mires is needed to understand the relationships between climate, testate amoebae and peatland development. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
9.
The deformation of the solid matrix affects the fluid pore pressure and flow by altering the pore volume. Such interaction in turn affects the storage of groundwater in the void space. Obviously, this subject is of interest in groundwater hydrology. This paper describes an investigation of the effect of aquifer heterogeneity on the variability of the fluid pressure head and solid's volume strain, where the assumption of a constant vertical total stress leads to a relatively simple relationship between changes in solid's volume strain and fluid pressure head. To solve the problem analytically, focus is placed on the one‐dimensional models. It is found from our closed‐form solutions that the variance and correlation length of the log hydraulic conductivity are important in increasing the variability of pressure head and solid's volume strain. It is hoped that our findings will provide a basic framework for understanding and quantifying field‐scale volume strain processes and be useful in stimulating further research in this area. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
10.
A mathematical model is developed for predicting the temperature distribution in an aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) system, which consists of a confined aquifer bounded from above and below by the rocks of different geological properties. The main transfer processes of heat include the conduction and advection in the aquifer and the conduction in the rocks. The semi‐analytical solution in dimensionless form for the model is developed by Laplace transforms and its corresponding time‐domain solution is evaluated by the modified Crump method. Field geothermal property data are used to simulate the temperature distribution in an ATES system. The results show that the heat transfer in the aquifer is fast and has a vast effect on the vicinity of the wellbore. However, the aquifer temperature decreases with increasing radial and vertical distances. The temperature in the aquifer may be overestimated when ignoring the effect of thermal conductivity. The temperature distribution in an ATES system depends on the vertical thermal conduction in the rocks and the horizontal advection and thermal conduction in the aquifer. The present solution is useful in designing and simulating the heat injection facility in the ATES systems. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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