Estimating Sea-Level Allowances for Atlantic Canada using the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC     

Li Zhai  Blair J.W. Greenan  John Hunter  Thomas S. James  Guoqi Han  Phillip MacAulay 《大气与海洋》2015,53(5):476-490

Abstract

Sea-level allowances at 22 tide-gauge sites along the east coast of Canada are determined based on projections of regional sea-level rise for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) and on the statistics of historical tides and storm surges (storm tides). The allowances, which may be used for coastal infrastructure planning, increase with time during the twenty-first century through a combination of mean sea-level rise and the increased uncertainty of future projections with time. The allowances show significant spatial variation, mainly a consequence of strong regionally varying relative sea-level change as a result of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). A methodology is described for replacement of the GIA component of the AR5 projection with global positioning system (GPS) measurements of vertical crustal motion; this significantly decreases allowances in regions where the uncertainty of the GIA models is large. For RCP8.5 with GPS data incorporated and for the 1995–2100 period, the sea-level allowances range from about 0.5?m along the north shore of the Gulf of St. Lawrence to more than 1?m along the coast of Nova Scotia and southern Newfoundland.  相似文献   

On the development of a coupled regional climate–vegetation model RCM–CLM–CN–DV and its validation in Tropical Africa     

Guiling Wang  Miao Yu  Jeremy S. Pal  Rui Mei  Gordon B. Bonan  Samuel Levis  Peter E. Thornton 《Climate Dynamics》2016,46(1-2):515-539

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A syn‐depositional age for Earth’s deepest δ13C excursion required by isotope conglomerate tests     

Jon M. Husson  Adam C. Maloof  Blair Schoene 《地学学报》2012,24(4):318-325

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Utilisation of different carbon sources in a shallow estuary identified through stable isotope techniques     

E. Zetsche  B. Thornton  A.J. Midwood  U. Witte 《Continental Shelf Research》2011,31(7-8):832-840

Organic carbon in estuarine sediments can have many different sources. Terrestrial, riverine, estuarine and marine C pools may all contribute to and influence the organic C (C_org) inventory of the estuarine sediments and the differing stable isotope signatures of the sources are reflected in the sediment's overall ¹³C content. Ecological interpretations of sedimentary isotope data may, however, be limited by the fact the total C_org inventory of a sediment may not be an accurate representation of the fraction that is labile and being actively turned over by the sedimentary community. To gain a better understanding of sedimentary C_org dynamics in estuaries and the relationship between the sedimentary C pool and the C_org undergoing mineralisation, we studied three components of an estuarine system: (1) the sedimentary C_org inventory on a transect from the mouth to the upper end of the estuary, (2) temporal changes of sedimentary C_org at one station throughout a year, and (3) the δ¹³C of respired CO₂ compared to the δ¹³C of available source material and sedimentary C_org in a novel application of methods developed for soil science. Our experiments demonstrated that material of marine origin dominated the studied estuary. At the time-series station, material of marine origin dominated the sedimentary C_org throughout the 1-yr study period. δ¹³C values of CO₂ released from the sediment differed significantly from the sedimentary C_org inventory at all study sites, but also clearly reflected differences between the main sections of the estuary. These results suggest that δ¹³C measurements of respired CO₂ are promising as a tool to advance our understanding of C cycling in estuaries, and highlight that the sedimentary C_org pool alone may not be a satisfactory indicator of OM utilisation in estuarine sediments.  相似文献   

Tropical forcing of Australian extreme low minimum temperatures in September 2019     

Lim  Eun-Pa  Hendon  Harry H.  Shi  Li  de Burgh-Day  Catherine  Hudson  Debra  King  Andrew  Trewin  Blair  Griffiths  Morwenna  Marshall  Andrew 《Climate Dynamics》2021,56(11):3625-3641

We explore the causes and predictability of extreme low minimum temperatures (T_min) that occurred across northern and eastern Australia in September 2019. Historically, reduced T_min is related to the occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and central Pacific El Niño. Positive IOD events tend to locate an anomalous anticyclone over the Great Australian Bight, therefore inducing cold advection across eastern Australia. Positive IOD and central Pacific El Niño also reduce cloud cover over northern and eastern Australia, thus enhancing radiative cooling at night-time. During September 2019, the IOD and central Pacific El Niño were strongly positive, and so the observed T_min anomalies are well reconstructed based on their historical relationships with the IOD and central Pacific El Niño. This implies that September 2019 T_min anomalies should have been predictable at least 1–2 months in advance. However, even at zero lead time the Bureau of Metereorolgy ACCESS-S1 seasonal prediction model failed to predict the anomalous anticyclone in the Bight and the cold anomalies in the east. Analysis of hindcasts for 1990–2012 indicates that the model's teleconnections from the IOD are systematically weaker than the observed, which likely stems from mean state biases in sea surface temperature and rainfall in the tropical Indian and western Pacific Oceans. Together with this weak IOD teleconnection, forecasts for earlier-than-observed onset of the negative Southern Annular Mode following the strong polar stratospheric warming that occurred in late August 2019 may have contributed to the T_min forecast bust over Australia for September 2019.

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Evolution of the Nearshore Bed Envelope     

Gallagher  E.L. Holman  R.A. Thornton  E.B. 《Oceanic Engineering, IEEE Journal of》2007,32(1):214-224

The temporal growth of the envelope of bed motion owing to the migration of bedforms, which can be considered a proxy for maximum object burial depth, is examined using five different data sets. These data sets support the hypothesis that the envelope of bed motion will grow as an exponential taper, quickly at first, tapering off and approaching an asymptotic value. This growth is largest and fastest in the surf zone where wave and current flows are strong. Within the surf zone, envelopes owing solely to the migration of megaripples (bedforms with heights from 20 to 40 cm and lengths from 1 to 5 m) grow for about 8 d and reach an asymptote of about 40 cm. When wave energy becomes larger ( 1 m), bed envelopes are dominated by migrating sand bars and approach an asymptote of 3-4 m, but only after 2-12 years (depending on the beach). In addition, the frequency of object burial (the percentage of time that an object would be buried by the crests of migrating bedforms) is highest in the surf zone and grows rapidly with time.  相似文献   

Shear and Richardson number in a mode-water eddy   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Blair J.W. Greenan   《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》2008,55(10-13):1161

Measurements of stratification and shear were carried out as part of the EDDIES tracer release experiment in mode-water eddy A4 during the summer of 2005. These measurements were accomplished using both shipboard instrumentation and a drifting mooring. A strong relationship between shear intensity and distance from the center of the eddy A4 was observed with the shipboard ADCP. Diapycnal diffusivity at the SF₆ tracer isopycnal prior to and during the release was estimated from the drifting mooring to be 2.9×10⁻⁶ m² s⁻¹. Diffusivity increased by an order of magnitude to 3.2×10⁻⁵ m² s⁻¹ during the period of the final tracer survey in early September, which was similar to the value estimated from the tracer analysis for the whole experiment (3.5×10⁻⁵ m² s⁻¹, [Ledwell, J.R., McGillicuddy Jr., D.J., Anderson, L.A., 2008. Nutrient flux into an intense deep chlorophyll layer in a mode-water eddy. Deep-Sea Research II, this issue [doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2008.02.005]].  相似文献   

The Allen Telescope Array     

David Deboer  Rob Ackermann  Leo Blitz  Douglas Bock  Geoffrey Bower  Michael Davis  John Dreher  Greg Engargiola  Matt Fleming  Girmay Keleta  Gerry Harp  John Lugten  Jill Tarter  Doug Thornton  Niklas Wadefalk  Sander Weinreb  William J. Welch 《Experimental Astronomy》2004,17(1-3):19-34

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The gravitational wave background from neutron star birth throughout the cosmos     

E. Howell  D. Coward  R. Burman  D. Blair  J. Gilmore 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,351(4):1237-1246

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National-scale estimation of potentially harmful element ambient background concentrations in topsoil using parent material classified soil:stream–sediment relationships     

J.D. Appleton  B.G. Rawlins  I. Thornton 《Applied Geochemistry》2008

Regulatory authorities require estimates of ambient background concentrations (ABCs) of potentially harmful elements (PHEs) in topsoil; such data are currently not available in many countries. High resolution soil geochemical data exist for only part of England and Wales, whilst stream sediment data cover the entire landscape. A novel methodology is presented for estimating soil equivalent ABCs for PHEs from high-resolution (HR) stream sediment geochemical data grouped by common parent materials (PM), using arsenic (As) as an example. Geometric mean (GM) values for local PM groups are used to investigate different approaches for transforming sediment to soil equivalent concentrations. Holdout validation is used to assess: (i) the optimum number of samples for calculating local GM values, and (ii) the optimum scale at which to group data when using linear regression analysis to estimate GM soil ABCs from local sediment geochemical values. Holdout validation showed that the smallest differences were generally observed when five observations were used to calculate the GM and that these should be grouped over the smallest possible area in order to encompass soils over PMs with elevated GM As concentrations. Geometric mean ABCs are estimated and mapped for As in mineral soil across all of England and Wales within delineations of PM polygons. Errors for the estimation of soil equivalent GM As ABCs based on sediment data for an independent validation set were of a similar magnitude to those from holdout validation applied to the original data suggesting the approach is robust. The estimates of soil equivalent ABCs suggest that As exceeds the regulatory threshold used in risk assessments for residential land use (20 mg kg⁻¹) across 16% of the landscape of England and Wales. The applicability of the method for cognate landscapes, and potential refinements is discussed.  相似文献