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ABSTRACTOil spill forecast modelling is typically used immediately after a spill to predict oil dispersal and promote mobilisation of more effective response operations. The aim of this work was to map oil dispersal after the grounding of the MV Rena on Astrolabe Reef and to verify the results against observations. Model predictions were broadly consistent with observed distribution of oil contamination. However, some hot spots of oil accumulation, likely due to surf-zone and rip current circulation, were not well represented. Additionally, the model was run with 81 differing wind conditions to show that the events occurring during the grounding represented the typical likely behaviour of an oil spill on Astrolabe Reef. Oil dispersal was highly dependent on prevailing wind patterns; more accurate prediction would require better observations of local wind patterns. However, comparison of predictions with observations indicated that the GNOME model was an effective low-cost approach. 相似文献
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Various waterborne anthropogenic contaminants disrupt the endocrine systems of wildlife and humans, targeting reproductive pathways, among others. Very little is known, however, regarding the occurrence of endocrine disruptive activity in South African freshwater ecosystems, and coastal ecosystems have not been studied in this regard. In a first attempt to investigate endocrine disruptive activity in South African coastal waters, surface water samples collected from harbours, river mouths and estuaries in three metropolitan municipalities, eThekwini (which includes Durban), Nelson Mandela (specifically Port Elizabeth Harbour) and City of Cape Town, were screened for (anti) oestrogenicity and (anti)androgenicity using recombinant yeast bioassays. Moreover, levels of the female hormone 17β-(o)estradiol (E2) were determined in all samples, as well as a selection of hydrocarbons in the eThekwini samples. A high proportion of samples collected from eThekwini were oestrogenic, whereas none from Port Elizabeth Harbour and only a single river mouth sampled in the City of Cape Town were oestrogenic. E2 was detected in all the samples tested, but at higher concentrations at the eThekwini and City of Cape Town localities than Port Elizabeth Harbour. In addition, the recombinant yeast assays revealed that anti-androgenicity was widespread, being detected in the majority of samples screened apart from those representing Port Elizabeth Harbour. Conversely, no anti-oestrogenic or androgenic activity was detected. Anti-androgenicity did not associate with hydrocarbon loads, providing evidence that other anti-androgens were responsible for the observed activity. The present data suggest potential reproductive disruption in marine and estuarine fauna inhabiting the eThekwini and City of Cape Town regions. 相似文献
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Predicting the fate of the injected CO2 is crucial for the safety of carbon storage operations in deep saline aquifers: especially the evolution of the position, the spreading and the quantity of the mobile CO2 plume during and after the injection has to be understood to prevent any loss of containment. Fluid flow modelling is challenging not only given the uncertainties on subsurface formation intrinsic properties (parameter uncertainty) but also on the modelling choices/assumptions for representing and numerically implementing the processes occurring when CO2 displaces the native brine (model uncertainty). Sensitivity analysis is needed to identify the group of factors which contributes the most to the uncertainties in the predictions. In this paper, we present an approach for assessing the importance of model and parameter uncertainties regarding post-injection trapping of mobile CO2. This approach includes the representation of input parameters, the choice of relevant simulation outputs, the assessment of the mobile plume evolution with a flow simulator and the importance ranking for input parameters. A variance-based sensitivity analysis is proposed, associated with the ACOSSO-like meta-modelling technique to tackle the issues linked with the computational burden posed by the use of long-running simulations and with the different types of uncertainties to be accounted for (model and parameter). The approach is tested on a potential site for CO2 storage in the Paris basin (France) representative of a project in preliminary stage of development. The approach provides physically sound outcomes despite the challenging context of the case study. In addition, these outcomes appear very helpful for prioritizing the future characterisation efforts and monitoring requirements, and for simplifying the modelling exercise. 相似文献
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McDonnell JA Alexander WM Burton WM Bussoletti E Evans GC Evans ST Firth JG Grard RJ Green SF Grun E Hanner MS Hughes DW Igenbergs E Kissel J Kuczera H Lindblad BA Langevin Y Mandeville JC Nappo S Pankiewicz GS Perry CH Schwehm GH Sekanina Z Stevenson TJ Zarnecki JC et AL 《Astronomy and Astrophysics》1987,187(1-2):719-741
Analysis of the data from Giotto's Dust Impact Detection System experiment (DIDSY) is presented. These data represent measurement of the size of dust grains incident on the Giotto dust shield along its trajectory through the coma of comet P/Halley on 1986 March 13/14. First detection occurred at some 287000 km distance from the nucleus on the inbound leg; the majority of the DIDSY subsystems remained operational after closest approach (604 km) yielding the last detection at about 202000 km from the nucleus. In order to improve the data coverage (and especially for the smallest grains, to approximately 10(-19) kg particle mass), data from the PIA instrument has been combined with DIDSY data. Flux profiles are presented for the various mass channels showing, to a first approximation, a 1/R2 flux dependence, where R is the distance of the detection point from the cometary nucleus, although significant differences are noted. Deviations from this dependence are observed, particularly close to the nucleus. From the flux profiles, mass and geometrical area distributions for the dust grains are derived for the trajectory through the coma. Groundbased CCD imaging of the dust continuum in the inner coma at the time of encounter is also used to derive the area of grains intercepted by Giotto. The results are consistent with the area functions derived by Giotto data and the low albedo of the grains deduced from infrared emission. For the close encounter period (-5 min to +5 min), the cumulative mass distribution function has been investigated, initially in 20 second periods; there is strong evidence from the data for a steepening of the index of the mass distribution for masses greater than 10(-13) kg during passage through dust jets which is not within the error limits of statistical uncertainty. The fluences for dust grains along the entire trajectory is calculated; it is found that extrapolation of the spectrum determined at intermediate masses (cumulative mass index alpha = 0.85) is not able to account for the spacecraft deceleration as observed by the Giotto Radio Science Experiment and by ESOC tracking operations. Data at large masses (>10(-8) kg) recently analysed from the DIDSY data set show clear evidence of a decrease in the mass distribution index at these masses within the coma, and it is shown that such a value of the mass index can provide sufficient mass for consistency with the observed deceleration. The total particulate mass output from the nucleus of comet P/Halley at the time of encounter would be dependent on the maximum mass emitted if this change in slope observed in the coma were also applicable to the emission from the nucleus; this matter is discussed in the text. The flux time profiles have been converted through a simple approach to modeling of the particle trajectories to yield an indication of nucleus surface activity. There is indication of an enhancement in flux at t approximately -29 s corresponding to crossing of the dawn terminator, but the flux detected prior to crossing of the dawn terminator is shown to be higher than predicted by simple modelling. Further enhancements corresponding to jet activity are detected around +190 s and +270 s. 相似文献
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青海锡铁山铅锌矿床硫同位素地球化学研究——深源与海水硫的混合 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
锡铁山铅锌矿床发育较为完整的喷流沉积系统,包括管道相、近喷口相、远端沉积相及各种喷流沉积岩,并有后期改造作用形成的脉状铅锌矿体。本文通过喷流沉积系统各部位硫化物硫同位素的分析,不同部位硫化物硫同位素组成不同,且规律性变化。以黄铁矿分析结果为例,网脉状石英钠长岩δ34S=+0.8‰,代表供给系统的硫化物脉2.95‰,非层状矿体4.48‰,层状矿体3.25‰,炭质片岩为+6.26‰,后期改造型铅锌矿脉为+2.93‰。代表管道相的网脉状石英钠长岩黄铁矿具有深源(幔源)的硫同位素组成,而矿体或大理岩上盘炭质片岩具有海水硫来源的特点。矿体的硫介于二者之间,更靠近炭质片岩的硫化物同位素组成,其来源可能更多受海水硫酸盐的制约,即锡铁山矿床硫具有混合来源性质,主要是海水硫酸盐的还原,部分来源于深部卤水的供给。硫的还原方式以生物细菌还原为主。层状矿体中硫同位素组成由早至晚δ34S逐渐降低,表明层状矿体成矿作用过程中,发生了生物成因的H2S的大量加入。 相似文献