The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5  

Ed Hawkins  Rowan Sutton 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(1-2):407-418

We separate and quantify the sources of uncertainty in projections of regional (～2,500 km) precipitation changes for the twenty-first century using the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble, allowing a direct comparison with a similar analysis for regional temperature changes. For decadal means of seasonal mean precipitation, internal variability is the dominant uncertainty for predictions of the first decade everywhere, and for many regions until the third decade ahead. Model uncertainty is generally the dominant source of uncertainty for longer lead times. Scenario uncertainty is found to be small or negligible for all regions and lead times, apart from close to the poles at the end of the century. For the global mean, model uncertainty dominates at all lead times. The signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of the precipitation projections is highest at the poles but less than 1 almost everywhere else, and is far lower than for temperature projections. In particular, the tropics have the highest S/N for temperature, but the lowest for precipitation. We also estimate a ‘potential S/N’ by assuming that model uncertainty could be reduced to zero, and show that, for regional precipitation, the gains in S/N are fairly modest, especially for predictions of the next few decades. This finding suggests that adaptation decisions will need to be made in the context of high uncertainty concerning regional changes in precipitation. The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional temperature projections is far greater. These conclusions on S/N are for the current generation of models; the real signal may be larger or smaller than the CMIP3 multi-model mean. Also note that the S/N for extreme precipitation, which is more relevant for many climate impacts, may be larger than for the seasonal mean precipitation considered here.  相似文献   

The lateglacial Quercus expansion in the southern European Alps: rapid vegetation response to a late Allerød climate warming?     

W. Finsinger  C. S. Lane  G. J. van Den Brand  F. Wagner‐Cremer  S. P. E. Blockley  A. F. Lotter 《第四纪科学杂志》2011,26(7):694-702

A pollen‐inferred vegetation shift, from pioneer birch–pine woodland to mixed pine–summergreen oak forests, in the southern Alpine forelands, is commonly attributed to a centennial‐scale warming that occurred between the Gerzensee Oscillation (GO) and the Younger Dryas. Two microtephra layers bracketing the Younger Dryas onset (the Laacher See Tephra and the Vedde Ash) improve the chronology at Lago Piccolo di Avigliana (northern Italy) and allowed accurate correlation with Central European records where the GO is clearly detected. We used pollen percentages, pollen accumulation rates (PARs) and plant macrofossils to assess the population dynamics of Quercus, and leaf‐cuticle analysis for a better taxonomic identification of Quercus. Our results indicate that the species that was locally present was probably Quercus robur. PARs suggest that the population expansion started as early as the Bølling and followed an exponential increase through time. We attribute this gradual shift to increasing summer temperatures and longer growing seasons which contrast with a gradually decreasing temperature trend as recorded in Greenland ice cores and in Central Europe. Breaks or set‐backs in the PAR record may indicate the biotic response to minor Lateglacial cooling events of different life‐history stages in the Quercus population. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A revised chronology for the adoption of agriculture in the Southern Levant and the role of Lateglacial climatic change     

S.P.E. Blockley  R. Pinhasi 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(1-2):98-108

This paper re-examines the chronology and environmental context for the transition to agriculture in the Southern Levant, seen as the likely starting point for the adoption of agriculture in Europe and the Near East. The role in this process of abrupt late Quaternary climate change has been discussed widely, but limitations on the archaeological and palaeoenvironmental chronologies have led to varying interpretations. Here we attempt to clarify the situation by first testing the available radiocarbon database for the archaeological transitions from the Natufian through to the PPNA. We apply internationally accepted radiocarbon quality assurance procedures and find that a significant number of the published dates fall bellow acceptable standards. The cleaning process significantly clarifies and constrains the reported time ranges for the Natufian, Late Natufian and PPNA. We then apply the new IntCal09 calibration curve and Bayesian calibration methods, using the archaeological phasing to constrain the data and calculate the most likely timing of the transitions between each phase. We then compare the onset and duration of archaeological phases to data representing the key Northern Hemisphere climatic transitions, using the new GICC05 Greenland Ice core timescale and the timing of transitions between wet and dry phases in the southern Levant from published high precision isotopic analyses of Speleothem data. The results of this exercise present the currently best available chronology for these events and suggest that during the second part of the Lateglacial interstadial, drying of the southern Levant may have triggered the transition to the Late Natufian, when hunter-gatherer communities resorted to a more mobile lifestyle. The Late Natufian culture appears to have disappeared from the southern Levant during the Younger Dryas, as drying intensified. There is then a gap in well dated evidence for human occupation until a reappearance of humans at the onset of the Pre-Pottery Neolithic A (PPNA) period at the beginning of the Holocene. Thus the onset of the Holocene can be hypothesised to be the driver behind the onset of the Neolithic in this region.  相似文献   

The multiple chronological techniques applied to the Lake Suigetsu SG06 sediment core,central Japan     

Richard A. Staff  Takeshi Nakagawa  Gordon Schlolaut  Michael H. Marshall  Achim Brauer  Henry F. Lamb  Christopher Bronk Ramsey  Charlotte L. Bryant  Fiona Brock  Hiroyuki Kitagawa  Johannes van der Plicht  Rebecca L. Payne  Victoria C. Smith  Darren F. Mark  Alison Macleod  Simon P. E. Blockley  Jean‐Luc Schwenninger  Pavel E. Tarasov  Tsuyoshi Haraguchi  Katsuya Gotanda  Hitoshi Yonenobu  Yusuke Yokoyama  Suigetsu Project Members 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2013,42(2):259-266

The varved sediment of Lake Suigetsu (central Japan) provides a valuable opportunity to obtain high‐resolution, multi‐proxy palaeoenvironmental data across the last glacial/interglacial cycle. In order to maximize the potential of this archive, a well‐constrained chronology is required. This paper outlines the multiple geochronological techniques being applied – namely varve counting, radiocarbon dating, tephrochronology (including argon–argon dating) and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) – and the approaches by which these techniques are being integrated to form a single, coherent, robust chronology. Importantly, we also describe here the linkage of the floating Lake Suigetsu (SG06) varve chronology and the absolute (IntCal09 tree‐ring) time scale, as derived using radiocarbon data from the uppermost (non‐varved) portion of the core. This tie‐point, defined as a distinct (flood) marker horizon in SG06 (event layer B‐07–08 at 1397.4 cm composite depth), is thus derived to be 11 255 to 11 222 IntCal09 cal. years BP (68.2% probability range).  相似文献   

Pseudostalaktiten und Verwandtes     

Raphael Ed. Liesegang 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1914,5(4):241-246

Ohne Zusammenfassung  相似文献   

Beiträge zur Geochemie     

R. Ed. Liesegang 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1913,4(5-6):404-408

Ohne Zusammenfassung  相似文献   

Begriff und Bedeutung der Intrusionstektonik     

Franz Ed. Suess 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1927,18(2):149-154

Ohne Zusammenfassung  相似文献   

The Ah receptor in marine animals: phylogenetic distribution and relationship to cytochrome P4501A inducibility     

Mark E. Hahn  Alan Poland  Ed Glover  John J. Stegeman 《Marine environmental research》1992,34(1-4)

In mammals, the induction of cytochrome P4501A forms by chlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, chlorinated dibenzofurans, and halogenated biphenyls is under control of a soluble protein known as the Ah (aromatic hydrocarbon) receptor. Little is known about the presence and properties of the Ah receptor in other vertebrate and invertebrate species. In these studies, we sought evidence for an Ah receptor in the liver or liver-equivalent of 20 species of marine and freshwater animals, using the photoaffinity ligand 2-azido-3-[¹²⁵I] iodo-7,8-dibromodibenzo-p-dioxin (N₃[¹²⁵I]Br₂DD). Specific labeling of cytosolic proteins by N₃[¹²⁵I]Br₂DD was observed in seven species of teleost and elasmobranch fish, in PLHC-I fish hepatoma cells, and in beluga whales. No specifically labeled proteins were found in cytosol from two species of agnathan fish nor in any of nine invertebrate species representing eight classes of four phyla. The presence or absence of specifically labeled polypeptides corresponds with the inducibility of cytochrome P4501A and sensitivity to the toxic effects of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin and related planar halogenated aromatic hydrocarbons in many of these groups. Thus, Ah receptor function may have arisen early invertebrate evolution and has been conserved from elasmobranch and teleost fish to mammals.  相似文献   

The effects of sewage discharge on water quality and phytoplankton of Hawai'ian coastal waters     

Parnell PE 《Marine environmental research》2003,55(4):293-311

The effects of sewage discharge on algal populations and the quality of Hawai'ian coastal waters were investigated. Two outfalls were studied. One discharges primary treated sewage and the other discharges secondary treated sewage but are otherwise similar. This enabled comparisons of the effects of these different levels of treatment on the water quality and algal productivity of receiving waters. Plumes were followed and repeatedly sampled in a time-series manner. Rhodamine dye was used as a conservative tracer to compare the dilution behavior of the plume constituents MRP, NO(3)+NO(2), NH(4), Silicate, TDP, TDN, total bacteria, PC, and PN. Rates of initial dilution ranged from two to almost three orders of magnitude, and were in reasonable agreement with engineering model predictions. Dilution of plume constituents approximated that of Rhodamine until background concentrations were reached, typically within 10 min of discharge. Chl a concentrations did not increase through time in the primary sewage plume but did increase up to 30% in the secondary sewage plume. However, rates of far-field dilution were so rapid that the increase could not have been due to algal growth. The increase was attributed to the plume mixing with a water mass whose relative chl a concentrations were greater. Rates of secondary dilution ranged from 2 to 3 orders of magnitude resulting in total dilutions of 10(5)-10(6) within 3 h of discharge. These rates of secondary dilution were much greater than model predictions. From a nutrient standpoint, secondary treatment exhibited no advantages over primary treatment because dilutions were so rapid.  相似文献   

Variations in the Rate of Anaerobic Succinate Accumulation within the Central and Marginal Regions of an Euryoxic Bivalve Mantle     

Ed  Greenfield Miles A.  Crenshaw 《Marine Ecology》1981,2(4):353-362

Abstract. Anaerobic metabolism in the central and marginal portions of the mantle of Mercenaria mercenaria was compared. Anaerobic succinate accumulation was more rapid in the central region. This difference may be due to higher phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase activity in the central region. Thus, the central region is more specialized for anaerobic metabolism and the marginal region more for net shell growth. The original rate of succinate accumulation in the mantle is similar in isolated mantles and intact clams, suggesting that mantle succinate production does not require translocation of precursors from other tissues. However, in intact clams, the rate of succinate accumulation in the central region of the mantle slows after four hours. The reduced rate is probably caused by reducing the metabolic rate. Succinate accumulation and shell dissolution are slower in freshly collected clams than in clams that had been stored anaerobically. The difference may be due to induction of PEPCK synthesis during storage. Shell derived calcium did not accumulate in the mantle and, therefore did not alter the intracellular calcium concentration in the mantle.  相似文献