Environmental Conditions Determining the Timing of the Lifetime Maximum Intensity of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific and Their Frequency of Occurrence     

秦晓昊  山口宗彦  碓氷典久  广濑成章 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2022,28(1):1-11

Environmental conditions determining the timing of the lifetime maximum intensities of tropical cyclones (TCs) are investigated for the TCs over the western North Pacific during the period 2008-2017. The results show that the land controls the timings of the lifetime maximum intensities in 42% of the TCs over this basin, indicating that accurate track forecasts are beneficial for TC intensity forecasts. With respect to other TCs that are not affected by the land (i.e., Ocean-TCs), the timings of their lifetime maximum intensities are determined by multiple oceanic factors. In particular, interactions between TCs and cold-core eddies occur in a large proportion (nearly 60%) of Ocean-TCs at or shortly after the times of their lifetime maximum intensities, especially in strong TCs (categories 4 and 5), suggesting that a consideration of the above interactions is necessary for improving TC intensity forecasting skills. In addition, unfavorable oceanic heat content conditions become common as the latitude increases over 25°N, influencing half of the Ocean-TCs. Strong vertical wind shear contributes detrimentally to the atmospheric environment in 17% of the TCs over this basin, especially in moderate and weak TCs. In contrast, neither the maximum potential intensity nor the humidity in the middle level of the atmosphere plays dominant roles when TCs turn from their peak intensities to weakening.  相似文献   

Tyatya Volcano, southwestern Kuril arc: Recent eruptive activity inferred from widespread tephra   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

MITSUHIRO  NAKAGAWA  YOSHIHIRO  ISHIZUKA †  TAKASHI  KUDO  MITSUHIRO  YOSHIMOTO ‡  WATARU  HIROSE  YOSHIO  ISHIZAKI  NOBUO  GOUCHI  YOSHIO  KATSUI  ALEXANDER W.  SOLOVYOW  GENRIKH S.  STEINBERG  ARSLAN I.  ABDURAKHMANOV 《Island Arc》2002,11(4):236-254

Abstract Tyatya Volcano, situated in Kunashir Island at the southwestern end of Kuril Islands, is a large composite stratovolcano and one of the most active volcanoes in the Kuril arc. The volcanic edifice can be divided into the old and the young ones, which are composed of rocks of distinct magma types, low‐ and medium‐K series, respectively. The young volcano has a summit caldera with a central cone. Recent eruptions have occurred at the central cone and at the flank vents of the young volcano. We found several distal ash layers at the volcano and identified their ages and sources, that is, tephras of ad 1856, ad 1739, ad 1694 and ca 1 Ka derived from three volcanoes of Hokkaido, Japan, and caad 969 from Baitoushan Volcano of China/North Korea. These could provide good time markers to reveal the eruptive history of the central cone, which had continued intermittently with Strombolian eruptions and lava flow effusions since before 1 Ka. Relatively explosive eruptions have occurred three times at the cone during the past 1000 years. We revealed that, topographically, the youngest lava flows from the cone are covered not by the tephra of ad 1739 but by that of ad 1856. This evidence, together with a report of dense smoke rising from the summit in ad 1812, suggests that the latest major eruption with lava effusion from the central cone occurred in this year. In 1973, after a long period of dormancy, short‐lived phreatomagmatic eruptions began to occur from fissure vents at the northern flank of the young volcano. This was followed by large eruptions of Strombolian to sub‐Plinian types occurring from several craters at the southern flank. The 1973 activity is evaluated as Volcanic Explosivity Index = 4 (approximately 0.2 km³), the largest eruption during the 20th century in the southwestern Kuril arc. The rocks of the central cone are strongly porphyritic basalt and basaltic andesite, whereas the 1973 scoria is aphyric basalt, suggesting that magma feeding systems are definitely different between the summit and flank eruptions.  相似文献