The current earthquake forecast algorithms are not free of shortcomings due to inherent limitations. Especially, the requirement of stationarity in the evaluation of earthquake time series as a prerequisite, significantly limits the use of forecast algorithms to areas where stationary data is not available. Another shortcoming of forecast algorithms is the ergodicity assumption, which states that certain characteristics of seismicity are spatially invariant. In this study, a new earthquake forecast approach is introduced for the locations where stationary data are not available. For this purpose, the spatial activity rate density for each spatial unit is evaluated as a parameter of a Markov chain. The temporal pattern is identified by setting the states at certain spatial activity rate densities. By using the transition patterns between the states, 1- and 5-year forecasts were computed. The method is suggested as an alternative and complementary to the existing methods by proposing a solution to the issues of ergodicity and stationarity assumptions at the same time. 相似文献
A 6.8-magnitude earthquake that occurred on January 24, 2020, has been effective in Turkey’s eastern regions. The earthquake, with recorded peak ground acceleration (PGA) value of 0.292 g, caused the destruction or heavy damage of buildings, especially in the city center of Elaz?? province. The purpose of this paper was to share the results of detailed investigation in the earthquake-stricken area. Additionally, the causes of damages and failures observed in the buildings were compared to those that had occurred in previous earthquakes in Turkey. In this study, the damages observed in especially RC buildings as well as in masonry and rural buildings were summarized, the lessons learned were evaluated, and the results were interpreted with reference to Turkish earthquake codes. In the study, it was particularly emphasized why the building stock underwent such damage even though the buildings were exposed to earthquake acceleration well below the design acceleration values.
In this study, we purposed to investigate the edge of geostructures and position of existing faults of the Shamakhy–Gobustan and Absheron hydrocarbon containing regions in Azerbaijan. For this purpose, the horizontal gradient, analytic signal, tilt angle, and hyperbolic of tilt angle methods were applied to the first vertical derivative of gravity data instead of Bouguer gravity data. We obtained the maps that show the previous lineaments which were designated by considering the maximum contours of horizontal gradient, analytic signal maps, and zero values of tilt angle, hyperbolic of tilt angle maps. The geometry of basement interface was also modeled utilizing the Parker–Oldenburg algorithm to understand the sediment thickness and coherency or incoherency between the gravity values and basement topography. The lineaments were held a candle to most current tectonic structure map of the study area. It was seen that the techniques used in this study are very effective to determine the old and new lineaments in the Shamakhy–Gobustan and Absheron regions. The epicenter distribution of earthquakes within the study area supports the new lineaments which are extracted by our interpretation. We concluded that better comprehension of Azerbaijan geostructures and its effect on the large scale works will be provided by means of this study. 相似文献
This study describes the parametric uncertainty of artificial neural networks (ANNs) by employing the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method. The ANNs are used to forecast daily streamflow for three sub-basins of the Rhine Basin (East Alpine, Main, and Mosel) having different hydrological and climatological characteristics. We have obtained prior parameter distributions from 5000 ANNs in the training period to capture the parametric uncertainty and subsequently 125,000 correlated parameter sets were generated. These parameter sets were used to quantify the uncertainty in the forecasted streamflow in the testing period using three uncertainty measures: percentage of coverage, average relative length, and average asymmetry degree. The results indicated that the highest uncertainty was obtained for the Mosel sub-basin and the lowest for the East Alpine sub-basin mainly due to hydro-climatic differences between these basins. The prediction results and uncertainty estimates of the proposed methodology were compared to the direct ensemble and bootstrap methods. The GLUE method successfully captured the observed discharges with the generated prediction intervals, especially the peak flows. It was also illustrated that uncertainty bands are sensitive to the selection of the threshold value for the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency measure used in the GLUE method by employing the Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney test. 相似文献
On November 14, 2016, the northeastern South Island of New Zealand was hit by the magnitude Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, which is characterized by the most complex rupturing mechanism ever recorded. The widespread landslides triggered by the earthquake make this event a great case study to revisit our current knowledge of earthquake-triggered landslides in terms of factors controlling the spatial distribution of landslides and the rapid assessment of geographic areas affected by widespread landsliding. Although the spatial and size distributions of landslides have already been investigated in the literature, a polygon-based co-seismic landslide inventory with landslide size information is still not available as of June 2021. To address this issue and leverage this large landslide event, we mapped 14,233 landslides over a total area of approximately 14,000 km2. We also identified 101 landslide dams and shared them all via an open-access repository. We examined the spatial distribution of co-seismic landslides in relation to lithologic units and seismic and morphometric characteristics. We analyzed the size statistics of these landslides in a comparative manner, by using the five largest co-seismic landslide inventories ever mapped (i.e., Chi-Chi, Denali, Wenchuan, Haiti, and Gorkha). We compared our inventory with respect to these five ones to answer the question of whether the landslides triggered by the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake are less numerous and/or share size characteristics similar to those of other strong co-seismic landslide events. Our findings show that the spatial distribution of the Kaikōura landslide event is not significantly different from those belonging to other extreme landslide events, but the average landslide size generated by the Kaikōura earthquake is relatively larger compared to some other large earthquakes (i.e., Wenchuan and Gorkha).
The city of Bursa in Turkey is surrounded by major and secondary fault branches which splay from the North Anatolian Fault. Nonetheless, as their traces were not exactly known in the alluvial land of the Bursa basin, until this study, they were not plotted in the official active fault map of Turkey. In this study, the Bursa basin was observed by InSAR technology, and the subsidence which is consistent with the pull-apart basin geometry was detected in the basin. This finding was discussed in the local platforms in Turkey. Then, the city of Bursa was included into the priority provinces for the urban reconstruction under the risk of an earthquake, and the official active fault map of the region was revised by General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration of Turkey. 相似文献
In this study, the geometric accuracy comparison of aerial photos and WorldView-2 satellite stereo image data is evaluated with the different number and the distribution of the ground control points (GCPs) on the basis of large scale map production. Also, the current situation of rivalry between airborne and satelliteborne imagery was mentioned. The geometric accuracy of Microsoft UltraCam X 45 cm ground sampling distance (GSD) aerial imagery and WorldView-2 data both with and without GCPs are also separately analyzed. The aerial photos without any GCP by only using global navigation satellite system (GNSS) and inertial measurement unit (IMU) data with tie points give an accuracy of ±1.17 m in planimetry and ±0.71 m in vertical that means nearly two times better accuracy than the rational polynomial coefficient (RPC) of stereo WorldView-2. Using one GCP affects the accuracies of aerial photos and WorldView-2 in different ways. While this situation distorts the aerial photo block, it corrects the shift effect of RPC in WorldView-2 and increases the accuracy. By using four or more GCPs, ½?pixel (～0.23 m) accuracy in aerial photos and 1 pixel (～0.50 m) accuracy in WorldView-2 can be achieved in horizontal. In vertical, aerial photos have 1 pixel (～0.55 m) and WorldView-2 has 1.5 pixels (～0.85 m) accuracy. These results show that Worldview-2 imagery can be used in the production of class I 1:5000 scale maps according to the ASPRS Accuracy Standards for Digital Geospatial Data in terms of geometric accuracy. It is concluded that the rivalry between aerial and satellite imagery will continue for some time in the future. 相似文献
We investigated the relationships between mineral content and the physical and mechanical properties of landscape rock using a non-destructive remote sensing method applied in the laboratory. Using this technique, the spectral properties of the landscape rock could be collected at different wavelengths without harming the samples. Differences in spectral reflectance were compared with the physical and mechanical properties of the stone. Significant correlations were observed between reflectance values and the rocks’ mechanical and physical properties, with correlation coefficients of 95 to 99 %. However, establishing a correlation between two variables is not a sufficient condition to establish a causal relationship. Mineral densities and mineral content are characteristics used for the classification of landscape rock. We have concluded that although spectral signatures from landscape rock can be used for predicting which stones might have similar features when comparing two batches of stone, the high correlations we discovered cannot confirm a cause and effect relationship that would allow for the prediction of a rock’s physical and mechanical properties. Although this conclusion is disappointing, the mineral content and the significant correlations discovered by hyperspectral reflectance scanning can be used as supplementary information when comparing two samples of landscape rock. 相似文献
Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are important environmental pollutants due to their persistence and bioaccumulation potential both in organisms and in sediments. In this study, bioaccumulation and depuration experiments were performed employing local Mediterranean mussel species, Mytilus galloprovincialis, with two biomarkers: filtration rate and lysosomal stability (neutral red retention) assay. Benzo(a)anthracene (BaA) was chosen as the model PAH compound due to its common presence in several matrices in the marine environment. Bioconcentration Factors (BCFs) for the mussels exposed to different BaA concentrations were calculated from both kinetic rate constants and from the experimental data and found between 27-3184 and 16-2745, respectively. Experimental QSAR values were found comparable to the previous QSAR models created for BaA. The effect of BaA exposure on the mussels showed a more clear dose-response relationship according to the results of lysosomal stability compared to the filtration rate. 相似文献
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