Observation targeting with a second-order adjoint method for increased predictability     

Humberto C. Godinez  Dacian N. Daescu 《Computational Geosciences》2011,15(3):477-488

The efficiency of current adjoint-based observations targeting strategies in variational data assimilation is closely determined by the underlying assumption of a linear propagation of initial condition errors into the model forecasts. A novel targeting strategy is proposed in the context of four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) to account for nonlinear error growth as the forecast lead time increases. A quadratic error growth model is shown to maintain the accuracy in tracking the nonlinear evolution of initial condition perturbations, as compared to the first-order approximation. A second-order adjoint model is used to provide the derivative information that is necessary in the higher-order Taylor series approximation. The observation targeting approach relies on the dominant eigenvectors of the Hessian matrix associated with a specific forecast error aspect as an indicator of the directions of largest quadratic error growth. A comparative qualitative analysis between observation targeting based on first- and second-order adjoint information is presented in idealized 4D-Var experiments with a two-dimensional global shallow-water model. The results indicate that accounting for the quadratic error growth in the targeting strategy is of particular benefit as the forecast lead time increases.  相似文献   

Moisture transport and intraseasonal variability in the South America monsoon system   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Leila M. V. Carvalho  Ana E. Silva  Charles Jones  Brant Liebmann  Pedro L. Silva Dias  Humberto R. Rocha 《Climate Dynamics》2011,36(9-10):1865-1880

This paper examines moisture transport on intraseasonal timescales over the continent and over the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) during the South America (SA) summer monsoon. Combined Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (EOFc) of Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad precipitation, specific humidity, air temperature, zonal and meridional winds at 850?hPa (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis) are performed to identify the large-scale variability of the South America monsoon system and the SACZ. The first EOFc was used as a large-scale index for the South American monsoon (LISAM), whereas the second EOFc characterized the SACZ. LISAM (SACZ) index showed spectral variance on 30?C90 (15?C20) days and were both band filtered (10?C100?days). Intraseasonal wet anomalies were defined when LISAM and SACZ anomalies were above the 75th percentile of their respective distribution. LISAM and SACZ wet events were examined independently of each other and when they occur simultaneously. LISAM wet events were observed with the amplification of wave activity in the Northern Hemisphere and the enhancement of northwesterly cross-equatorial moisture transport over tropical continental SA. Enhanced SACZ was observed with moisture transport from the extratropics of the Southern Hemisphere. Simultaneous LISAM and SACZ wet events are associated with cross-equatorial moisture transport along with moisture transport from Subtropical Southwestern Atlantic.  相似文献   

Seismic risk assessment and hazard mapping in Nepal     

Chaulagain  Hemchandra  Rodrigues  Hugo  Silva  Vitor  Spacone  Enrico  Varum  Humberto 《Natural Hazards》2015,78(1):583-602

Natural Hazards - Seismic risk in the form of impending disaster has been seen from past records that moderate-to-large earthquakes have caused the loss of life and property in all parts of Nepal....  相似文献   

Importance of mixotrophic nanoplankton in Aysén Fjord (Southern Chile) during austral winter     

Till Czypionka  Cristian A. Vargas  Nelson Silva  Giovanni Daneri  Humberto E. González  José Luis Iriarte 《Continental Shelf Research》2011,31(3-4):216-224

Mixotrophy, the combination of autotrophic and heterotrophic nutrition in the same organism, is widespread in planktonic algae. Several reports from temperate and high-latitude fjords in Scandinavia suggest the occurrence of a niche in late summer and autumn during post-bloom conditions in which mixotrophic algae can become important grazers in pelagic ecosystems, accessing the nutrients bound in their prey to overcome nutrient limitation. Here, we experimentally determined the trophic modes and bacterivory rates for the nanoplankton community (2–20 μm) in Aysén Fjord located in the Chilean Northern Patagonia during two contrasting seasons: winter and spring. While mixotrophic nanoplankton was virtually absent from the system in spring, in winter at occasions it even constituted the dominant trophic group of the nanoplankton with abundances of >900 cells mL^?1. This indicates a second niche for mixotrophs in winter, when mixotrophy allows overcoming light limitation.  相似文献   

Spatial and temporal variability of microplankton and detritus, and their export to the shelf sediments in the upwelling area off Concepción, Chile (∼36°S), during 2002-2005     

Humberto E. González  Eduardo Menschel  Carola Aparicio 《Progress in Oceanography》2007,75(3):435-451

Seasonal variations in diversity and biomass of diatoms, tintinnids, and dinoflagellates and the contribution of microplankton and faecal material to the vertical flux of particulates were investigated at one time series station T (station 18) between 2002 and 2005 and at a grid of stations during November 2004 in the coastal and oceanic area off Concepción (36°S), Chile. The variations were analysed in relation to water column temperature, dissolved oxygen, nutrient concentration, offshore Ekman transport, and chlorophyll-a concentration. Abundance was estimated as cell numbers per litre and biomass in terms of biovolume and carbon units.A sharp decrease with depth was observed in the abundance of both phytoplankton and microzooplankton during the whole annual cycle; over 70% of their abundance was concentrated in the upper 10 m of the water column. Also, a clear seasonality in microplankton distribution was observed at station T, with maxima for diatoms, tintinnids, and dinoflagellates every summer (centred on January) from 2002 to 2005.On the grid of stations, the maximum integrated (0-50 m) micro-phytoplankton abundances (>1 × 10⁹ cells m⁻²) occurred at the coastal stations, an area directly influenced by upwelling. A similar spatial distribution was observed for the integrated (0-200 m) faecal carbon (with values up to 632 mg C m⁻²). Tintinnids were distributed in all the first 300 miles from the coast and dinoflagellates were more abundant in oceanic waters.At station T, the average POC export production (below 50 m depth) was 16.6% (SD = 17%; range 2-67%; n = 16). The biological-mediated fluxes of carbon between the upper productive layer and the sediments of the continental shelf off Concepción depend upon key groups of phytoplankton (Thalassiosira spp., Chaetoceros spp.) and zooplankton (euphausiids) through the export of either cells or faecal material, respectively.  相似文献   

The distribution of chlorophyll-a and dominant planktonic components in the coastal transition zone off Concepción, central Chile, during different oceanographic conditions     

Carmen E. Morales  Humberto E. González  Gabriel Yuras  Leonardo R. Castro 《Progress in Oceanography》2007,75(3):452-469

The oceanographic setting and the planktonic distribution in the coastal transition zone off Concepción (∼35-38°S, ∼73-77°W), an area characterized by its high biological production, were assessed during two different seasons: austral spring with equatorward upwelling favorable winds and austral winter with predominately northerly winds. Oceanographic and biological data (total chlorophyll-a, particulate organic carbon, microplankton, large mesozooplankton >500 μm as potential consumers of microplankton) were obtained during two cruises (October 1998, July 1999) together with satellite imagery for wind stress, geostrophic flow, surface temperature, and chlorophyll-a data. The physical environment during the spring sampling was typical of the upwelling period in this region, with a well-defined density front in the shelf-break area and high concentrations of surface chlorophyll-a (>5 mg m⁻³) on the shelf over the Itata terrace. During the winter sampling, highly variable though weakly upwelling-favorable winds were observed along with lower surface chlorophyll-a values (<2 mg m⁻³) on the shelf. In the oceanic area (>100 km from the coast), cyclonic and anti-cyclonic eddies were evident in the flow field during both periods, the former coinciding with higher chlorophyll-a contents (∼1 mg m⁻³) than in the surrounding waters. Also, a cold, chlorophyll-a rich filament was well defined during the spring sampling, extending from the shelf out to 350-400 km offshore. Along a cross-shelf transect, the micro- and meso-planktonic assemblages displayed higher coastal abundances during the spring cruise but secondary peaks appeared in the oceanic area during the winter cruise, coinciding with the distribution of the eddies. These results suggest that the mesoscale features in this region, in combination with upwelling, play a role in potentially increasing the biological productivity of the coastal transition zone off Concepción.  相似文献   

Seasonal and inter-annual variation of mesozooplankton in the coastal upwelling zone off central-southern Chile   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ruben Escribano  Pamela Hidalgo  Humberto González  Ricardo Giesecke  Ramiro Riquelme-Bugueño  Karen Manríquez 《Progress in Oceanography》2007,75(3):470-485

Zooplankton sampling at Station 18 off Concepción (36°30′S and 73°07′W), on an average frequency of 30 days (August 2002 to December 2005), allowed the assessment of seasonal and inter-annual variation in zooplankton biomass, its C and N content, and the community structure in relation to upwelling variability. Copepods contributed 79% of the total zooplankton community and were mostly represented by Paracalanus parvus, Oithona similis, Oithona nana, Calanus chilensis, and Rhincalanus nasutus. Other copepod species, euphausiids (mainly Euphausia mucronata), gelatinous zooplankton, and crustacean larvae comprised the rest of the community. Changes in the depth of the upper boundary of the oxygen minimum zone indicated the strongly seasonal upwelling pattern. The bulk of zooplankton biomass and total copepod abundance were both strongly and positively associated with a shallow (<20 m) oxygen minimum zone; these values increased in spring/summer, when upwelling prevailed. Gelatinous zooplankton showed positive abundance anomalies in the spring and winter, whereas euphausiids had no seasonal pattern and a positive anomaly in the fall. The C content and the C/N ratio of zooplankton biomass significantly increased during the spring when chlorophyll-a was high (>5 mg m⁻³). No major changes in zooplankton biomass and species were found from one year to the next. We concluded that upwelling is the key process modulating variability in zooplankton biomass and its community structure in this zone. The spring/summer increase in zooplankton may be largely the result of the aggregation of dominant copepods within the upwelling region; these may reproduce throughout the year, increasing their C content and C/N ratios given high diatom concentrations.  相似文献   

Near Infrared Spectra of two Asteroids with low Tisserand Invariant     

Julie Ziffer  Humberto Campins  Javier Licandro  Noemi Pinilla-Alonso  Yanga Fernandez  Schelte J. Bus 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2005,97(3-4):203-212

We present near infrared reflectance spectra from 0.8 to 2.5 μm of two asteroids with low Tisserand invariant, 1373 Cincinnati and 2906 Caltech. We compare our spectra with cometary nuclei and other asteroids in their class. Asteroids Cincinnati and Caltech have Tisserand invariant values of 2.72 and 2.97, respectively, values less than 3 are considered suggestive of cometary origin. The observed spectral slopes in the near-infrared are consistent with both the spectra of cometary nuclei and of primitive asteroids. However, both asteroids have features in the near-infrared that are not seen in cometary nuclei, but are present in other X-type asteroids. 1373 Cincinnati has a sharp slope change between 0.75 and 1.0 μm and 2906 Caltech has a broad and shallow absorption between 1.35 and 2.2 μm. Our attempts to model the visible and near-infrared spectrum of these two objects, with the components successfully used by Emery and Brown (2004, Icarus 164, 104–121) to fit Trojan asteroids, did not yield acceptable fits.Visiting Astronomer at the Infrared Telescope Facility, which is operated by the University of Hawaii under contract to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.  相似文献   

Evidence for Chemical Heterogeneity in the Nucleus of C/1995 O1 (Hale–Bopp)     

Lederer  Susan M.  Campins  Humberto 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2002,90(1-4):381-389

We present an analysis of OH, CN, and C₂ jets observed in thecoma of Comet Hale–Bopp on UT April 22, 23, and 25, 1997. Monte Carlomodels designed to simulate the gas jets were employed to analyze thenuclear active areas responsible for the observed coma gas jets. Ourresults indicate that four active areas are necessary to reproduce theCN and C₂ jets while five active areas are required to simulatethe OH jets. The additional OH active area must produce significantlevels of OH, but cannot emit measurable quantities of either carbonradical. This difference suggests that the nucleus of Comet Hale–Boppis chemically heterogeneous.  相似文献   

On the relation of vegetation and southwest monsoon rainfall over Western Ghats,India     

T. V. Lakshmi Kumar  Koteswara Rao  R. Uma  Humberto Barbosa  K. V. K. R. K. Patnaik  Emily Prabha Jothi 《Natural Hazards》2016,80(1):425-444

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