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1.
ABSTRACT

Characterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis. Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources – and different perceptions thereof – explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work.  相似文献   
2.
The Indonesian archipelago which has over 15,000 islands, lies in the tropics between Asia and Australia. This eventually alters the rainfall variability over the region, which was influenced by the Asian-Australian monsoon and controlled by intraseasonal variabilities such as convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEW), i.e., Kelvin, n?=?1 equatorial Rossby (ER), mixed Rossby gravity (MRG), and n?=?1 Westward inertio gravity (WIG), including the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). This study examines a 15-year 3B42 data for trapping CCEW and MJO in the region of Indonesia during both active and extreme Western North Pacific (WNP) and Australian (AU) monsoon phases, which are then compared with 30-year rainfall anomalies among 38 synoptic stations over Indonesia. The space–time spectral analysis is employed to filter each wave including the MJO in the equator, then proceeding with the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method to seek each wave peak which then coincides with WNP and AU monsoon peaks over Indonesia. It is concluded that an extreme monsoon classification has proven to control rainfall activity related to the CCEW and MJO at 60.66% during December through February (DJF)-WNP for only the significant wave perturbation value. Meanwhile, the CCEW and MJO significantly increase/decrease precipitation at Day 0 for about 37.88% from the total of Day 1st to Day end. Although the contribution of the CCEW and MJO does not profoundly influence rainfall activity during monsoon phase over Indonesia, they still modulate weather condition for more than 50%. On the other hand, a complex topography with a number of land–sea complexities is capable of influencing the rainfall variability in the region as a negative relationship is associated with the CCEW and MJO either during DJF-WNP or July through August (JAS)-AU monsoon phase.  相似文献   
3.
Glacial surges in Svalbard are protracted and characterized by individual dynamic evolution, in contrast to many other areas, which calls for a subdivision of the classic two‐phased surge cycle. A dominating part of the ice masses seem to have a surge potential and this represents a considerable challenge for palaeoclimatic studies. Glaciological and geological models therefore need to be coupled. The issue is discussed with Fridtjovbreen glacier as an example. This ice mass is one of few glaciers studied throughout a surge cycle. It was active for 12 years (1991–2002) and represents the most protracted surge documented. The maximum advance rate was 4.2 m day?1, its maximum extent was reached after seven years, its run‐out distance was 4 km, and the relocated ice filled 5 km2 of the fjord. Intense subglacial thrusting occurred during various stages, including part of the ice‐front retreat, as shown by sub‐bottom profiling data from 2002. A six‐stage model is presented and processes are discussed with emphasis on the ice‐front retreat with transition to the quiescent phase. Although the surge mechanism itself is unrelated to climate, climatic conditions obviously play a major role in the course of a surge. During the surge, the ice mass made a dramatic impression in the landscape, but 10 years after the maximum extent, there is little onshore evidence of the event.  相似文献   
4.
Acid mine drainage (AMD) is a widespread environmental problem associated with working and abandoned mining operations. It results from the microbial oxidation of pyrite in the presence of water and air, affording an acidic solution that contains toxic metal ions. Pyrite microencapsulation, utilizing silica coating, is a novel approach for controlling AMD that has been shown to be very effective in controlling pyrite oxidation. The roles of the solution pH and silica concentration in the formation mechanism for the AMD-preventing coating were investigated. A silica coating can be formed from silica solution at pH 7, at which the amount of Fe eluted from pyrite into the solution is small. No coating was formed at other pH values, and the amounts of eluted Fe were larger than at pH 7, especially at pH 11. The silica coating forms from 2,500 to 5,000 mg/L silica solutions, but not from 0 or 1,000 mg/L silica solutions. The coating formation rate was slower in the 2,500 mg/L silica solution than in the 5,000 mg/L silica solution. The formation of silica coating on pyrite surfaces depends on three main steps: formation of Fe(OH)3 on the surface of pyrite, reaction between Fe(OH)3 and silicate in the solution on the pyrite surface, and growth of the silica layer on the first layer of silica. The best pH condition to enable these steps was around 7, and the silica coating formation rate can be controlled by the concentration of silica.  相似文献   
5.
Understanding processes that contribute to a better comprehension of the population dynamics of long‐lived species is critical for the maintenance and potential recovery of such species. Despite the abundance of soft corals in Mediterranean rocky reefs, little information exists on their life histories and reproductive patterns. In this study, we assessed the main reproductive characteristics and early life‐history traits of the long‐lived soft coral Alcyonium acaule. The sex ratio was 1:1; the smallest fertile colonies were one finger in size (2.1 ± 0.6 cm in height), and both colony and polyp fertility increased with colony size. Likewise, the number of eggs and spermary sacs per polyp increased significantly with colony size, whereas the diameter of the female and male sexual products did not. Over 6 years of observations (2007–2012), spawning occurred primarily in July, after the seawater reached 20 °C, in a single spawning episode per year. Approximately 80% of female colonies released eggs, which were retained on the surface of the mother colony by mucous strings for up to a few days. High fertilization rates were observed during spawning in 2008 and 2009 (94.9% and 87.0%, respectively). The timing of development was ~24 h for the blastulae, ~48–72 h for the planulae and 8–22 days for metamorphosis into primary polyps. Survivorship of planulae was relatively high (~50% at 45 days after release), but only 24% of larvae metamorphosed into primary polyps, and their survivorship was moderate after 2 months (65% in 2008 and 74% in 2009). Asexual reproduction was negligible, indicating that sexual reproduction is the main mechanism supporting the maintenance and recovery of populations.  相似文献   
6.
7.
Marine seismic data are always affected by noise. An effective method to handle a broad range of noise problems is a time‐frequency de‐noising algorithm. In this paper we explain details regarding the implementation of such a method. Special emphasis is given to the choice of threshold values, where several different strategies are investigated. In addition we present a number of processing results where time‐frequency de‐noising has been successfully applied to attenuate noise resulting from swell, cavitation, strumming and seismic interference. Our seismic interference noise removal approach applies time‐frequency de‐noising on slowness gathers (τ?p domain). This processing trick represents a novel approach, which efficiently handles certain types of seismic interference noise that otherwise are difficult to attenuate. We show that time‐frequency de‐noising is an effective, amplitude preserving and robust tool that gives superior results compared to many other conventional de‐noising algorithms (for example frequency filtering, τ?p or fx‐prediction). As a background, some of the physical mechanisms responsible for the different types of noise are also explained. Such physical understanding is important because it can provide guidelines for future survey planning and for the actual processing.  相似文献   
8.
At a low permeability clay till site contaminated with chlorinated ethenes (Gl. Kongevej, Denmark), enhanced reductive dechlorination (ERD) was applied by direct push injection of molasses and dechlorinating bacteria. The performance was investigated by long‐term groundwater monitoring, and after 4 years of remediation, the development of degradation in the clay till matrix was investigated by high‐resolution subsampling of intact cores. The formation of degradation products, the presence of specific degraders Dehalococcoides spp. with the vinyl chloride (VC) reductase gene vcrA, and the isotope fractionation of trichloroethene, cis‐dichloroethene (cis‐DCE), and VC showed that degradation of chlorinated ethenes occurred in the clay till matrix as well as in sand lenses, sand stringers, and fractures. Bioactive sections of up to 1.8 m had developed in the clay till matrix, but sections, where degradation was restricted to narrow zones around sand lenses and stringers, were also observed. After 4 years of remediation, an average mass reduction of 24% was estimated. Comparison of the results with model simulation scenarios indicate that a mass reduction of 85% can be obtained within approximately 50 years without further increase in the narrow reaction zones if no donor limitations occur at the site. Long‐term monitoring of the concentration of chlorinated ethenes in the underlying chalk aquifer revealed that the aquifer was affected by the more mobile degradation products cis‐DCE and VC generated during the remediation by ERD.  相似文献   
9.
Uncertainty in discharge data must be critically assessed before data can be used in, e.g. water resources estimation or hydrological modelling. In the alluvial Choluteca River in Honduras, the river‐bed characteristics change over time as fill, scour and other processes occur in the channel, leading to a non‐stationary stage‐discharge relationship and difficulties in deriving consistent rating curves. Few studies have investigated the uncertainties related to non‐stationarity in the stage‐discharge relationship. We calculated discharge and the associated uncertainty with a weighted fuzzy regression of rating curves applied within a moving time window, based on estimated uncertainties in the observed rating data. An 18‐year‐long dataset with unusually frequent ratings (1268 in total) was the basis of this study. A large temporal variability in the stage‐discharge relationship was found especially for low flows. The time‐variable rating curve resulted in discharge estimate differences of ? 60 to + 90% for low flows and ± 20% for medium to high flows when compared to a constant rating curve. The final estimated uncertainty in discharge was substantial and the uncertainty limits varied between ? 43 to + 73% of the best discharge estimate. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
10.
Ice‐cored lateral and frontal moraine complexes, formed at the margin of the small, land‐based Rieperbreen glacier, central Svalbard, have been investigated through field observations and interpretations of aerial photographs (1936, 1961 and 1990). The main focus has been on the stratigraphical and dynamic development of these moraines as well as the disintegration processes. The glacier has been wasting down since the ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA) maximum, and between 1936 and 1990 the glacier surface was lowered by 50–60 m and the front retreated by approximately 900 m. As the glacier wasted, three moraine ridges developed at the front, mainly as melting out of sediments from debris‐rich foliation and debris‐bands formed when the glacier was polythermal, probably during the LIA maximum. The disintegration of the moraines is dominated by wastage of buried ice, sediment gravity‐flows, meltwater activity and some frost weathering. A transverse glacier profile with a northward sloping surface has developed owing to the higher insolation along the south‐facing ice margin. This asymmetric geometry also strongly affects the supraglacial drainage pattern. Lateral moraines have formed along both sides of the glacier, although the insolation aspect of the glacier has resulted in the development of a moraine 60 m high along its northern margin. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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