Seismic Hazard Analysis — Quo vadis?     

Jens-Uwe Klügel   《Earth》2008,88(1-2):1-32

The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.

Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making.  相似文献   

From source terrains of the Eastern Alps to the Molasse Basin: Detrital record of non-steady-state exhumation   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

J. Kuhlemann  I. Dunkl  A. Brügel  C. Spiegel  W. Frisch 《Tectonophysics》2006,413(3-4):301-316

Fission-track cooling ages of detrital apatite (AFT) in the East Alpine Molasse Basin display age groups corresponding to geodynamic events in the orogen since Jurassic times. These age groups are typical of certain thermotectonic units, which formed a patchwork in the Swiss and Eastern Alps. By a combination of petrographic and thermochronologic data, progressive erosion of source terrains is monitored in different catchments since the Oligocene. The AFT cooling ages show a decrease in lag time until when rapidly cooled debris derived from tectonically exhumed core complexes became exposed. After termination of tectonic exhumation, lag times of debris derived from the core complexes increased. Neither on the scale of the entire Eastern Alps, or on the scale of individual catchments, steady-state exhumation is observed, due to the highly dynamic changes of exhumation rates since Late Eocene collision.  相似文献   

On the Limnology of Deep and Saline Lake Burdur in Turkey     

Snmez Girgin  Nilgün Kazanc&#x;  Muzaffer Dügel 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2004,32(3):189-200

Limnological characteristics of Lake Burdur in Lake District in south‐western Turkey are presented. It is a deep, tectonic (estimated max. depth 100 m), athalassic, highly alkaline, and saline lake. A set of physical and chemical variables was monitored, phyto‐ and zooplankton was sampled from surface layer of the lake during 1997. Physico‐chemical variables indicated that the lake is hyposaline and composed of some hydrochemically different water layers formed by groundwater sources located on the bottom of the lake. The phytoplankton composition of Lake Burdur consisted of Cyanophyta, Chlorophyta, Bacillariophyta, Dinophyta, and Chrysophyta. The abundance and number of species of Chlorophyta and Cyanophyta were higher than the other taxa. The zooplankton composition of the Lake consisted of Rhizopoda, Rotifera, and Crustacea. Number of species of Rotifera was higher than the other taxa. The diversities of the phyto‐ and zooplankton were calculated according to the Shannon‐Weaver diversity index. The diversity of each group was found to be low in the lake.  相似文献   

Reply to the comment of Krinitzsky on J.U. Klügel's “Problems in the application of the SSHAC probability method for assessing earthquake hazards at Swiss nuclear power plants”, in Engineering Geology, vol. 78, pp. 285-307     

J.-U. Klügel 《Engineering Geology》2005,82(1):69-70

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Reply to the comment on J.U. Klügel's “Problems in the application of the SSHAC probability method for assessing earthquake hazards at Swiss nuclear power plants”, in Engineering Geology, Vol. 78, pp. 285-307, by Budnitz, by, J.U, Klügel     

J.-U. Klügel 《Engineering Geology》2005,82(1):79-85

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Structural control on the kinematics of the deep-seated La Clapière landslide revealed by L-band InSAR observations   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

R. Schlögel  J.-P. Malet  C. Doubre  T. Lebourg 《Landslides》2016,13(5):1005-1018

The objective of this work is to document the deformation pattern of the deep-seated La Clapière landslide for the period 2007–2010 from the combination of L-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferograms, ground-based total station measurements and identification of the slope geomorphological structures. The interferograms are calculated for pairs of ALOS/PALSAR images at a time interval of 46 days. The displacement field derived from the interferograms reveals a non-uniform displacement gradient from the top (subsidence) to the bottom (accumulation). Vertical velocities are calculated from the unwrapped phase values and are in good agreement with ground-based measurements. The results demonstrate the potential of L-band ALOS/PALSAR imagery for the monitoring of active landslides characterized by complex kinematic patterns and by important changes in the soil surface backscattering in time.  相似文献   

On the accuracy of location of local shocks on the territory of Czechoslovakia and adjacent areas     

Libuše Ruprechtová  Klára Mrázová  Jaroslav Fiedler  Reviewer A. Zátopek 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1984,28(3):286-293

Summary The calculation procedures for determining epicentre parameters of weak near shocks with foci in Poland are discussed and tested for explosions with known epicentres.

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Erratum     

W. Klöck  H. Palme  H. J. Tobschall 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1986,94(1):135-135

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Neure Veröffentlichungen     

Hartmut Heinrich  Hartmut Klüger 《Ocean Dynamics》1986,39(4):179-181

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Comment on “Silicic melts produced by reaction between peridotite and infiltrating basaltic melts: ion probe data on glasses and minerals in veined xenoliths from La Palma,Canary Islands” by Wulff-Pedersen et al.     

Andreas?KlügelEmail author 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2001,141(4):505-510

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