Quantitative multi-risk analysis for natural hazards: a framework for multi-risk modelling   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Jochen Schmidt  Iain Matcham  Stefan Reese  Andrew King  Rob Bell  Roddy Henderson  Graeme Smart  Jim Cousins  Warwick Smith  Dave Heron 《Natural Hazards》2011,58(3):1169-1192

This paper introduces a generic framework for multi-risk modelling developed in the project ‘Regional RiskScape’ by the Research Organizations GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) in New Zealand. Our goal was to develop a generic technology for modelling risks from different natural hazards and for various elements at risk. The technical framework is not dependent on the specific nature of the individual hazard nor the vulnerability and the type of the individual assets. Based on this generic framework, a software prototype has been developed, which is capable of ‘plugging in’ various natural hazards and assets without reconfiguring or adapting the generic software framework. To achieve that, we developed a set of standards for treating the fundamental components of a risk model: hazards, assets (elements at risk) and vulnerability models (or fragility functions). Thus, the developed prototype system is able to accommodate any hazard, asset or fragility model, which is provided to the system according to that standard. The software prototype was tested by modelling earthquake, volcanic ashfall, flood, wind, and tsunami risks for several urban centres and small communities in New Zealand.  相似文献   

Classifying knowledge on climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in Europe for informing adaptation research and decision-making: A conceptual meta-analysis   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Mareen E. Hofmann  Jochen HinkelMarkus Wrobel 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(3):1106-1116

Knowledge on climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability is fragmented, because it is found in disparate case studies which use inconsistent terminology and focus on distinct aspects relevant to adaptation. While large-scale syntheses such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provide a high level overview and are useful for international decision-making, there is a need for systematic and flexible access to this research-based knowledge in order to aid future adaptation research and decision-making. Against this background, we present a ‘conceptual’ meta-analysis, a novel approach to meta-analyse studies on climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in Europe. The meta-analysis results in a classification scheme for relating the diverse studies. This scheme consists of (i) a classification of studies according to the type of adaptation-relevant results they produce and (ii) a hierarchical classification of the regional and thematic context of studies. The implementation of this scheme, for example in the form of a database, overcomes some of the identified gaps of current adaptation knowledge representation. We furthermore present a quantitative analysis of the classified studies that exemplifies how the developed classification scheme can be applied to get a systematic and quantitative overview of the knowledge they contain. Thus, the conceptual meta-analysis and the classification scheme represent a first step towards a systematisation of knowledge on climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability and may be seen as a useful complement to qualitative literature reviews.  相似文献   

“Indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity”: Towards a clarification of the science–policy interface     

Jochen Hinkel   《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(1):198-208

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Geochronological and petrological constraints from the evolution in the Saxon Granulite Massif,Germany, on the Variscan continental collision orogeny     

Jochen Rtzler  Martin J. Timmerman 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2021,39(1):3-38

Controversy over the plate tectonic affinity and evolution of the Saxon granulites in a two‐ or multi‐plate setting during inter‐ or intracontinental collision makes the Saxon Granulite Massif a key area for the understanding of the Palaeozoic Variscan orogeny. The massif is a large dome structure in which tectonic slivers of metapelite and metaophiolite units occur along a shear zone separating a diapir‐like body of high‐P granulite below from low‐P metasedimentary rocks above. Each of the upper structural units records a different metamorphic evolution until its assembly with the exhuming granulite body. New age and petrologic data suggest that the metaophiolites developed from early Cambrian protoliths during high‐P amphibolite facies metamorphism in the mid‐ to late‐Devonian and thermal overprinting by the exhuming hot granulite body in the early Carboniferous. A correlation of new Ar–Ar biotite ages with published P–T–t data for the granulites implies that exhumation and cooling of the granulite body occurred at average rates of ~8 mm/year and ~80°C/Ma, with a drop in exhumation rate from ~20 to ~2.5 mm/year and a slight rise in cooling rate between early and late stages of exhumation. A time lag of c. 2 Ma between cooling through the closure temperatures for argon diffusion in hornblende and biotite indicates a cooling rate of 90°C/Ma when all units had assembled into the massif. A two‐plate model of the Variscan orogeny in which the above evolution is related to a short‐lived intra‐Gondwana subduction zone conflicts with the oceanic affinity of the metaophiolites and the timescale of c. 50 Ma for the metamorphism. Alternative models focusing on the internal Variscan belt assume distinctly different material paths through the lower or upper crust for strikingly similar granulite massifs. An earlier proposed model of bilateral subduction below the internal Variscan belt may solve this problem.  相似文献   

Sources and behavior of arsenic and trace elements in groundwater and surface water in the Poopó Lake Basin,Bolivian Altiplano     

Oswaldo Eduardo Ramos Ramos  Luis Fernando Cáceres  Mauricio Rodolfo Ormachea Muñoz  Prosun Bhattacharya  Israel Quino  Jorge Quintanilla  Ondra Sracek  Roger Thunvik  Jochen Bundschuh  Maria Eugenia García 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,66(3):793-807

Water management in semiarid and arid catchments such as the Poopó Lake Basin requires improved understanding of the complex behavior of the various contaminants, which affect the drinking water quality and considered as crucial for sustainable development of the region. Mechanisms of arsenic (As) release in the surface and groundwater were studied. Hydrochemical data for surface water (4 samples) and groundwater (28 samples) were collected in a small watershed in the Poopó catchment at the highland of the Bolivian Andes (Altiplano). All of them show high electrical conductivity values and moderately oxidizing conditions. The surface water contains high concentration of sulfate and the trace elements As, Zn and Pb in the zone affected by acid mine drainage. There is a large variability of the concentration of As and of the trace elements in the groundwater in the five different regions within the Poopó catchment. The metal concentrations sensitive to changes of redox state and results of speciation modeling suggest that As (V) is a predominant aqueous species, which conforms to the prevailing oxidizing conditions in the shallow groundwater environment. Two generalized trends for As distribution were identified in groundwater: (a) high concentrations are found in the arid zone (100–250 μg/L) in the southern (region III) and in the northwestern (region V) regions, and (b) low concentrations (<50 μg/L) are found in the remaining part of the basin (region I, II and IV). However, the spatial distribution within these regions needs to be investigated further. A conclusion from the present study is that there are multiple sources of As as well as other trace elements (such as Cd, Mn and Zn) in the Poopó Lake Basin. Among the sources and the processes which led to the mobility of As and other trace metals in the region are: (a) weathering of sulfide minerals, (b) oxidation of pyrite and/or arsenopyrite in mineralized areas and (c) desorption from hydrous ferric oxide (HFO) surfaces. In non-mining areas, volcanic ash is suggested to be a significant source of As.  相似文献   

Late Quaternary growth and decay of the Svalbard/Barents Sea ice sheet and paleoceanographic evolution in the adjacent Arctic Ocean     

Jochen Knies  Christoph Vogt  Ruediger Stein 《Geo-Marine Letters》1998,18(3):195-202

The paleoceanography in the Nordic seas was characterized by apparently repeated switching on and off of Atlantic water advection. In contrast, a continous influx of Atlantic waters probably occurred along the northern Barents Sea margin during the last 150?ka. Temporary ice-free conditions enhanced by subsurface Atlantic water advection and coastal polynyas accelerated the final ice sheet build-up during glacial times. The virtually complete dissolution of biogenic calcite during interglacial intervals was controlled mainly by CO2-rich bottom waters and oxidation of higher levels of marine organic carbon and indicates intensive Atlantic water inflow and a stable ice margin.  相似文献   

The Plio-Pleistocene glaciation of the Barents Sea–Svalbard region: a new model based on revised chronostratigraphy     

Jochen Knies  Jens Matthiessen  Christoph Vogt  Jan Sverre Laberg  Berit O. Hjelstuen  Morten Smelror  Eiliv Larsen  Karin Andreassen  Tor Eidvin  Tore O. Vorren 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2009,28(9-10):812-829

Based on a revised chronostratigraphy, and compilation of borehole data from the Barents Sea continental margin, a coherent glaciation model is proposed for the Barents Sea ice sheet over the past 3.5 million years (Ma). Three phases of ice growth are suggested: (1) The initial build-up phase, covering mountainous regions and reaching the coastline/shelf edge in the northern Barents Sea during short-term glacial intensification, is concomitant with the onset of the Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (3.6–2.4 Ma). (2) A transitional growth phase (2.4–1.0 Ma), during which the ice sheet expanded towards the southern Barents Sea and reached the northwestern Kara Sea. This is inferred from step-wise decrease of Siberian river-supplied smectite-rich sediments, likely caused by ice sheet blockade and possibly reduced sea ice formation in the Kara Sea as well as glacigenic wedge growth along the northwestern Barents Sea margin hampering entrainment and transport of sea ice sediments to the Arctic–Atlantic gateway. (3) Finally, large-scale glaciation in the Barents Sea occurred after 1 Ma with repeated advances to the shelf edge. The timing is inferred from ice grounding on the Yermak Plateau at about 0.95 Ma, and higher frequencies of gravity-driven mass movements along the western Barents Sea margin associated with expansive glacial growth.  相似文献   

A temperature-induced reversible transformation between paratacamite and herbertsmithite     

Mark D. Welch  Matthew J. Sciberras  Peter A. Williams  Peter Leverett  Jochen Schlüter  Thomas Malcherek 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2014,41(1):33-48

The crystal chemistry of paratacamite has been re-evaluated by studying a crystal from the holotype specimen BM86958 of composition Cu_3.71Zn_0.29(OH)₆Cl₂ using single-crystal X-ray diffraction at 100, 200, 300, 353, 393 and 423 K. At 300 K paratacamite has space group $R\bar{3}$ with unit-cell parameters a 13.644 and c 14.035 Å and exhibits a pronounced subcell, a′ = ½a and c′ = c, analogous to that of the closely related mineral herbertsmithite, Cu₃Zn(OH)₆Cl₂. Between 353 and 393 K, paratacamite undergoes a reversible phase transformation to the herbertsmithite-like substructure, space group $R\bar{3}m$ , unit-cell parameters a 6.839 and c 14.072 Å (393 K). The transformation is characterised by a gradual reduction in intensity of superlattice reflections, which are absent at 393 and 443 K. On cooling from 443 to 300 K at ~10 K min^?1, the superlattice reflections reappear and the refined structures ( $R\bar{3}$ ) of the initial and recovered 300 K states are almost identical. The complete reversibility of the transformation establishes that paratacamite of composition Cu_3.71Zn_0.29(OH)₆Cl₂ is thermodynamically stable at ambient temperatures. The nature of the rhombic distortion of the M(2)O₆ octahedron is discussed by considering two possibilities that are dependent upon the nature of cation substitution in the interlayer sites.  相似文献   

Neutral hydrogen surveys for high-redshift galaxy clusters and protoclusters     

Richard A. Battye  Rod D. Davies  Jochen Weller 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,355(4):1339-1347

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The Millennium Galaxy Catalogue: bulge–disc decomposition of 10 095 nearby galaxies     

Paul D. Allen  Simon P. Driver  Alister W. Graham  Ewan Cameron  Jochen Liske  Roberto De Propris 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,371(1):2-18

We present near-infrared (NIR) adaptive optics-assisted spectroscopic observations of the  CO (Δμ= 2)  absorption bands towards the centre of the giant elliptical galaxy NGC 1399. The observations were made with NAOS-CONICA (on the European Southern Observatory's Very Large Telescope) and have a full width at half-maximum resolution of 0.15 arcsec (14 pc). Kinematic analysis of the observations reveals a decoupled core and strongly non-Gaussian line-of-sight velocity profiles in the central 0.2 arcsec (19 pc). NIR imaging also indicates an asymmetric elongation of the central isophotes in the same region.
We use spherical orbit-superposition models to interpret the kinematics, using a set of orthogonal 'eigen-velocity profiles' that allow us to fit models directly to spectra. The models require a central black hole of mass  1.2^+0.5_−0.6× 10⁹ M_⊙  , with a strongly tangentially biased orbit distribution in the inner 40 pc.  相似文献