What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

David H. Hathaway  Robert M. Wilson 《Solar physics》2004,224(1-2):5-19

The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modern measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio flux, total irradiance, X-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modern measures of solar activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or “Space Climate.” The sunspot record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131± 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period; 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 145 ± 30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70 ± 30 in 2023.  相似文献   

Quantitative methods in the earth sciences     

A. F?rster  D. F. Merriarn 《Mathematical Geology》1997,29(5):727

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Transient‐state groundwater flow in various geometries with wells at arbitrary positions: analytical methods     

M. W. Roth  C. M Wilson  M. Z. Iqbal 《水文研究》2003,17(17):3519-3530

We have developed a method for analytically solving the porous medium flow equation in many different geometries for horizontal (two‐dimensional), homogeneous and isotropic aquifers containing impermeable boundaries and any number of pumping or injection wells located at arbitrary positions within the system. Solutions and results are presented for rectangular and circular aquifers but the method presented here is easily extendible to many geometries. Results are also presented for systems where constant head boundary conditions can be emulated internal to the aquifer boundary. Recommendations for extensions of the present work are briefly discussed. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Imaging the surface of Mercury using ground-based telescopes     

Michael Mendillo  Johan Warell  Sanjay S. Limaye  Jeffrey Baumgardner  Ann Sprague  Jody K. Wilson 《Planetary and Space Science》2001,49(14-15)

We describe and compare two methods of short-exposure, high-definition ground-based imaging of the planet Mercury. Two teams have recorded images of Mercury on different dates, from different locations, and with different observational and data reduction techniques. Both groups have achieved spatial resolutions of <250 km, and the same albedo features and contrast levels appear where the two datasets overlap (longitudes 270–360°). Dark albedo regions appear as mare and correlate well with smooth terrain radar signatures. Bright albedo features agree optically, but less well with radar data. Such confirmations of state-of-the-art optical techniques introduce a new era of ground-based exploration of Mercury's surface and its atmosphere. They offer opportunities for synergistic, cooperative observations before and during the upcoming Messenger and BepiColombo missions to Mercury.  相似文献   

Simulated estimation of hydrological loads from GRACE     

K.-W. Seo  C. R. Wilson 《Journal of Geodesy》2004,78(7-8):442-456

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Elastic radiation from explosively loaded ellipsoidal cavities in an unbounded medium     

L. A. Glenn  A. J. C. Ladd  B. Moran  K. A. Wilson 《Geophysical Journal International》1985,81(1):231-241

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Local potential analysis of MHD instability     

K. K. Sen  S. J. Wilson 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1985,109(1):131-143

In many astrophysical problems, the study of the stability of an atmosphere in the presence of a magnetic field is of importance. In most cases the MHD instabilities of atmospheres are studied by energy principle of Bernsteinet al. (1958). In this paper, a general method for studying the stability of a system subject to MHD equations of conditions has been proposed. This is based on the local potential concept put forward by Glansdorff and Prigogine (1964). The scheme for securing stability criteria has been demonstrated in two particular cases.  相似文献   

The planets capture model of V838 Monocerotis: conclusions for the penetration depth of the planet(s)     

Alon Retter  Bing Zhang  Lionel Siess  Amir Levinson 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,370(3):1573-1580

V838 Mon is the prototype of a new class of objects. Understanding the nature of its multistage outburst and similar systems is challenging. So far, several scenarios have been invoked to explain this group of stars. In this work, the planets-swallowing model for V838 Mon is further investigated, taking into account the findings that the progenitor is most likely a massive B-type star. We find that the super-Eddington luminosity during the eruption can explain the fast rising times of the three peaks in the optical light curve. We used two different methods to estimate the location where the planets were consumed. There is a nice agreement between the values obtained from the luminosities of the peaks and from their rising time-scale. We estimate that the planets were stopped at a typical distance of one solar radius from the centre of the host giant star. The planets-devouring model seems to give a satisfying explanation to the differences in the luminosities and rising times of the three peaks in the optical light curve of V838 Mon. The peaks may be explained by the consumption of three planets or alternatively by three steps in the terminal falling process of a single planet. We argue that only the binary merger and the planets-swallowing models are consistent with the observations of the new type of stars defined by V838 Mon.  相似文献   

Hard X-ray light curves of high-mass X-ray binaries     

S. Laycock  M. J. Coe  C. A. Wilson  B. A. Harmon  M. Finger 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,338(1):211-218

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Estimation of anisoplanatism in adaptive optics by generalized SCIDAR profiling     

R. W. Wilson  N. J. Wooder  F. Rigal  J. C. Dainty 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,339(2):491-494

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