FURTHER ANALYSES OF THE STRUCTURE OF TYPHOON NO.7507 Ⅰ. KINEMATICAL FIELDS     

丁一汇  张键  刘月贞 《海洋学报(英文版)》1986,5(2):203-213

By utilizing the denser upper-air observations from the Okinawa region and the Japanese islands during August 17-23, 1975, the structure of Typhoon 7507 formed in this area has been analysed. It has been indicated that the cyclonic tangential wind maximum occurred in the eastern sector of the typhoon and the strongest inflow occurred in the southern portion of the typhoon about 150 km away from the typhoon centre. There was a deep inflow layer below the 300 hPa level. The anticyclonic outflow was the strongest at 150 hPa and was located in the NE quadrant of the typhoon. The convergence mainly took place in the southern part of the typhoon, while the divergence occurred at the lower and middle levels in the northern sector of the typhoon. The pattern of vorticity and vertical motion field were characterized by the similar asymmetry.  相似文献   

The data‐driven approach as an operational real‐time flood forecasting model     

Phuoc Khac‐Tien Nguyen  Lloyd Hock‐Chye Chua 《水文研究》2012,26(19):2878-2893

Accurate water level forecasts are essential for flood warning. This study adopts a data‐driven approach based on the adaptive network–based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to forecast the daily water levels of the Lower Mekong River at Pakse, Lao People's Democratic Republic. ANFIS is a hybrid system combining fuzzy inference system and artificial neural networks. Five ANFIS models were developed to provide water level forecasts from 1 to 5 days ahead, respectively. The results show that although ANFIS forecasts of water levels up to three lead days satisfied the benchmark, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts were only slightly better in performance compared with the currently adopted operational model. This limitation is imposed by the auto‐ and cross‐correlations of the water level time series. Output updating procedures based on the autoregressive (AR) and recursive AR (RAR) models were used to enhance ANFIS model outputs. The RAR model performed better than the AR model. In addition, a partial recursive procedure that reduced the number of recursive steps when applying the AR or the RAR model for multi‐step‐ahead error prediction was superior to the fully recursive procedure. The RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure significantly improved three‐, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts. Our study further shows that for long lead times, ANFIS model errors are dominated by lag time errors. Although the ANFIS model with the RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure provided the best results, this method was able to reduce the lag time errors significantly for the falling limbs only. Improvements for the rising limbs were modest. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Safer coasts,living with risks     

Chua Thia-Eng  Danilo A. Bonga 《Ocean & Coastal Management》2009,52(7):325-326

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Use of fluorescein as a ground water tracer in brackish water aquifers     

Chua LH  Robertson AP  Yee WK  Shuy EB  Lo EY  Lim TT  Tan SK 《Ground water》2007,45(1):85-88

A drift and pumpback experiment was conducted in a brackish water sandfill. The sandfill was reclaimed from the sea in the eastern part of Singapore and contains sands with low organic and clay/silt contents. The high salinity in the ground water precludes the use of chloride and bromide as tracers in such an environment, and a field experiment was conducted to assess the viability of using fluorescein as a tracer in brackish water aquifers. Nitrate was used as a second tracer to serve as a check. Initial laboratory studies showed that fluorescence was unaffected over the range of electrical conductivity and pH of the ground water. Results from the field experiment show that fluorescein appears to behave conservatively.  相似文献   

Effects of meteorological and hydrogeological factors on gross recharge percentage at unconfined sandy aquifers with an equatorial climate     

Stephen Boon Kean Tan  Eng Ban Shuy  Lloyd Hock Chye Chua 《水文研究》2007,21(18):2493-2503

A thorough understanding of rainfall recharge processes and their controlling factors is essential for management of groundwater systems. This study investigates the effects of various meteorological and hydrogeological factors on the gross recharge percentages, the rainfall–recharge relationships and the recharge threshold values for unconfined sandy aquifers under an equatorial climate. Among the meteorological factors investigated, rainfall intensity was found to have the most significant impact on the gross recharge rate. The effects of potential evaporation rate, relative humidity and air temperature on the gross recharge percentage were significant when the vadose zone thickness is larger than 2·5 m. The recharge threshold values were found to depend strongly on the vadose zone thickness. The rainfall–recharge relationships could generally be well defined by a normal–log relationship. The rainfall–recharge relationships derived here are applicable to yield estimates of gross recharge percentages for unconfined sandy aquifers under an equatorial climate, using rainfall intensity and vadose zone thickness as input variables. In this study, a theory was developed and validated to provide physical explanations for the observations, based on the residence time of the percolated rainwater within the vadose zone. Among the soil hydraulic parameters tested, porosity and saturated hydraulic conductivity were found to have the most pronounced effects on the gross recharge percentage. Utilizing the sensitivity results and the theory derived, an approach was developed for extending the application of the derived rainfall–recharge relationships to other sand textures. The approach was found to be capable of producing rough and fast estimations of gross recharge percentage for other sand textures. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A hybrid Bayesian back‐propagation neural network approach to multivariate modelling     

C. G. Chua  A. T. C. Goh 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2003,27(8):651-667

There is growing interest in the use of back‐propagation neural networks to model non‐linear multivariate problems in geotehnical engineering. To overcome the shortcomings of the conventional back‐propagation neural network, such as overfitting, where the neural network learns the spurious details and noise in the training examples, a hybrid back‐propagation algorithm has been developed. The method utilizes the genetic algorithms search technique and the Bayesian neural network methodology. The genetic algorithms enhance the stochastic search to locate the global minima for the neural network model. The Bayesian inference procedures essentially provide better generalization and a statistical approach to deal with data uncertainty in comparison with the conventional back‐propagation. The uncertainty of data can be indicated using error bars. Two examples are presented to demonstrate the convergence and generalization capabilities of this hybrid algorithm. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

渤海结冰海区溢油行为数值模拟   总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4  

余加艾  张波  刘钦政  陈伟斌  王仁树 《海洋与湖沼》1999,30(5):552-557

基于溢与海冰,水,大气的相互作用原理,建立了渤海结冰海区溢油行为数据模式,该模式模拟子结冰海区中油的输运过程,与国外有关模式相比更加重视冰场和冰速场的作用。海冰及潮流模式及采被实况检验过的渤海海冰数值预报模式。  相似文献   

Studies on groundwater recharge characteristics at a reclaimed land site with an equatorial climate using time‐series and spectral analyses     

Stephen Boon Kean Tan  Eng Ban Shuy  Lloyd Hock Chye Chua  Woon Kang Yee 《水文研究》2007,21(7):939-948

Groundwater recharge studies are essential for investigating the feasibility of using the reclaimed lands in Singapore for subsurface storage and recovery of water. Through time‐series and spectral analyses, net recharge percentages and stress‐filtering characteristics at the reclaimed land were found to depend strongly on the stress transfer velocity, which was a combined function of rainfall pattern and vadose zone thickness. Based on stress transfer velocity, a theory was established to provide logical explanations for the rainfall–recharge relationship, the observed stress‐filtering characteristics and the recharge percentage characteristics at the unconfined sandy aquifer. Although the reclaimed land site has a lithollogically homogeneous soil profile, a non‐uniform recharge pattern was observed to be influenced pronouncedly by the uneven density distribution of bush grasses. Under a bare soil condition, significantly lower recharge percentages were observed for areas under the influence of offshore tides. The unconfined sandy aquifer appears to dampen out the wave propagation of offshore tides rapidly within a short distance from the tidal source, though it has a fairly straight shoreline and is created from highly compacted sand fills. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

柴达木盆地北缘大煤沟剖面重矿物分析及其地质意义   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

和钟铧  刘招君  郭巍 《世界地质》2001,20(3):279-284

通过对柴达木盆地北缘大煤沟中生界地层标准剖面上重矿物的系统分析,初步查明了蚀源区母岩类型主要为中低级变质岩、沉积岩及中酸性岩浆岩和基性火山岩.提出了重矿物特征指数ATi和GZi的韵律性和相关性的存在,并依此把大煤沟剖面中生代地层划分为5个重矿物韵律层,分析了它们在揭示源区岩性变化及在地层划分与对比中的作用.最后探讨了ZTR指数变化与盆地构造演化的响应关系,根据ZTR指数规律性变化把中生代盆地划分为早侏罗世早期的初始断陷阶段、早侏罗世中期的主断陷阶段、早侏罗世晚期的断坳转换阶段、中侏罗世的坳陷阶段及晚侏罗世之后的反转萎缩阶段.  相似文献   

Provenance of a prominent sediment drift on the northern slope of the South China Sea   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

SHAO Lei  LI×ianhua  WEI Gangjian  LlU Ying  FANG Dianyong 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2001,44(10):919-925

The sedimentation rate of the sediment drift in the southeast of Dongsha Islands is as high as 49 cm/ka in the last 1.05 Ma. Although the sedimentation rate changes with time, the contents of rare elements of the sediments remain almost the same, indicating that the source area of the sediments has been constant with time. On the triangular diagrams of La-Th-Sc and Th-Sc-Zr/10, the samples from the southeast of Dongsha Islands fall within the continental island arc field, overlapping the samples from Taiwan, while the samples from the Pearl River, those from the west of the Philippines that contain volcanic material, are separated from them. This indicates that the sediments from the southeast of Dongsha Islands have a close relationship to those from Taiwan in terms of provenance. In fact, the sediments on the northern slope of the South China Sea were derived from northeast direction, as well as from Taiwan, most probably transported from Taiwan through Penghu channel into the South China Sea. The terrigenous part of the deep-sea sediments in the north of the South China Sea was provided by different sources.  相似文献