Optimum Sample Size to Detect Perturbation Effects: The Importance of Statistical Power Analysis – A Critique     

Marco Ortiz 《Marine Ecology》2002,23(1):1-9

Abstract. The current article describes statistical power analysis as an efficient strategy for the estimation of the optimum sample size. The principle aim is constructively to criticise and enrich the results presented by Mouillot et al. (1999) , who estimate the optimum sample size for evaluating possible perturbations. The authors did not make any reference to statistical power analysis, even though their objective clearly went beyond a simple stock evaluation to assess management strategies in a particular marine ecosystem. Surprisingly, they proposed (a priori) an ANOVA design to test a hypothesis considering both space and temporal scales. However, the authors did not cover important topics related with power analysis and the precautionary principle, both used into environment impact assessment programmes for marine ecosystems. Based on their results and on statistical power analysis, it is demonstrated that the variability (dispersion statistics), a key factor they used to estimate the sample size, is less relevant than the magnitude of perturbation (effect size). Therefore, a greater effort must be devoted to estimate the effect size of a particular phenomenon rather than a desired variability.  相似文献   

Changes in soils and vegetation in a Mediterranean coastal salt marsh impacted by human activities   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10  

J. lvarez-Rogel  F.J. Jimnez-Crceles  M.J. Roca  R. Ortiz 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2007,73(3-4):510-526

This paper reports changes in vegetation distribution and species cover in relation to soil factors and hydrology in a semiarid Mediterranean salt marsh adjacent to the Mar Menor saline lagoon. Species cover, soil salinity, and the groundwater level were monitored between 1991 and 1993 and between 2002 and 2004, and total organic carbon, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, nitrates, ammonium and exchangeable phosphorus were measured in the soils in both study periods. In addition, three soil profiles were described in August 1992 and August 2004. The results indicate an elevation of the water table throughout the 13-year period, which was attributable to water flowing from areas with intensive agriculture. Flooding increased and soil salinity dropped in the most saline sites and increased in the least saline ones. The morphology of the soil profiles reflected the increase in flooding periods, due to the appearance of a greyer matrix in the deeper horizons and a more diffuse pattern of Fe mottles. Following these environmental changes, Sarcocornia fruticosa, Phragmites australis and Juncus maritimus strongly expanded at the wettest sites, which led to the disappearance of the original zonation pattern. The cover of Limonium delicatulum, in turn, decreased with the increase in moisture but increased following the increase in salinity. Changes in soil nutrients were only very evident in the sandy soils of the beach, probably due to the influence of organic debris deposited on the shoreline by the storms and due to the strong increase in the colonisation of this habitat by perennial species. According to the results obtained, control measures are needed in order to preserve habitat diversity in this and other salt marshes of this area. Monitoring of the vegetation distribution could be a useful tool to identify environmental impacts, in order to implement remedial actions.  相似文献   

Natural attenuation and bioremediation of Prestige fuel oil along the Atlantic coast of Galicia (Spain)     

J.R. Gallego  E. Gonzlez-Rojas  A.I. Pelez  J. Snchez  M.J. García-Martínez  J.E. Ortiz  T. Torres  J.F. Llamas 《Organic Geochemistry》2006,37(12):1869

Heavy fuel oil spilled from the oil tanker Prestige in November 2002 affected hundreds of km of Spanish shoreline. We carried out a two year study at two highly contaminated sites in order to monitor natural attenuation of the residues coating shore rocks and to test the effectiveness of bioremediation with an oleophilic fertilizer (S200). The methodology included an innovative approach for oil load calculation (based on image analysis techniques), the analysis of the fate of hydrocarbons by means of chemical biomarkers and different microbiological techniques for isolating and examining hydrocarbon degraders.Considerable hydrocarbon depletion from shorelines (≈100% for light-medium linear alkanes and ≈35% for aromatics such as pyrene) was observed within the first months after the spill. However, this natural attenuation effect dramatically slowed down in the following year, although partial enhancement (especially for the aromatic fraction) was attained as a result of the application of S200 to stimulate indigenous microorganisms. In addition, one of the main outcomes of this work concerns the remarkable hydrocarbon depletion achieved at points where fresh water flowed through the shore rocks. The study of samples collected where this natural attenuation phenomenon took place made it possible to isolate heterotrophic bacteria and fungi that are likely to cooperate with cyanobacteria in hydrocarbon biodegradation. The overall results strongly advocate the implementation of new bioremediation approaches, including alternatives such as the use of natural fresh water to irrigate polluted areas.  相似文献   

Women’s use of public space and sense of place in the Raval (Barcelona)     

Anna Ortiz  Maria Dolors Garcia-Ramon  Maria Prats 《GeoJournal》2004,61(3):219-227

This article deals with women's use of public space and sense of place in El Raval, a neighbourhood located in the historical center of Barcelona. Attention will be paid to discover to what degree the existence of a quality public space fosters the creation of socially meaningful places, thus contributing to the construction of womens sense of place and urban identities. A qualitative approach, based on direct observation and in-depth interviews with women living in the neighbourhood, has allowed us to capture the main aspects of the building of a sense of place and belonging, that is the use of public space and facilities, the attitude towards living in the neighbourhood, etc. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Indicator Simulation Accounting for Multiple-Point Statistics   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

Julián M. Ortiz  Clayton V. Deutsch 《Mathematical Geology》2004,36(5):545-565

Geostatistical simulation aims at reproducing the variability of the real underlying phenomena. When nonlinear features or large-range connectivity is present, the traditional variogram-based simulation approaches do not provide good reproduction of those features. Connectivity of high and low values is often critical for grades in a mineral deposit. Multiple-point statistics can help to characterize these features. The use of multiple-point statistics in geostatistical simulation was proposed more than 10 years ago, on the basis of the use of training images to extract the statistics. This paper proposes the use of multiple-point statistics extracted from actual data. A method is developed to simulate continuous variables. The indicator kriging probabilities used in sequential indicator simulation are modified by probabilities extracted from multiple-point configurations. The correction is done under the assumption of conditional independence. The practical implementation of the method is illustrated with data from a porphyry copper mine.  相似文献   

The palaeoenvironmental and palaeohydrological evolution of Padul Peat Bog (Granada, Spain) over one million years, from elemental, isotopic and molecular organic geochemical proxies   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

J.E. Ortiz  T. Torres  A. Delgado  R. Juli  M. Lucini  F.J. Llamas  E. Reyes  V. Soler  M. Valle 《Organic Geochemistry》2004,35(11-12):1243

The elemental (concentration of organic carbon, atomic H/C and C/N ratios), isotopic (δ¹³C values of organic matter) and molecular (predominant n-alkane chain length and carbon preference index (CPI)) organic components were measured for 600 samples taken from a 107-m long core from the Padul Basin (Andalusia, Spain). The record runs from the Lower Pleistocene (ca. 1 Ma B.P.) to the mid-Holocene (ca. 4.5 ka B.P.) with, in general, little diagenesis (removal of components). Two markedly different hydrogeological scenarios were interpreted: (1) From ca. 1 Ma to ca. 400 ka B.P. run-off recharge was significant and water depths were greater (lacustrine scenario). From ca. 400 to 4.5 ka B.P., the Padul Basin became a peat bog s.s. with the major water input coming from groundwater inflow. From ca. 400 to ca. 180 ka B.P. alternating episodes with either predominant grasses, trees or aquatic macrophytes which were linked to wet/dry phases, took place. An important deglaciation episode has been interpreted to occur between ca. 180 and 170 ka B.P. The global climatic changes occurring from ca. 170 to 25 ka B.P. were not recorded in the proxies, though they do show important variations linked to the Last Glacial Maximum and the beginning of the Holocene (ca. 25–10 ka B.P.): (2) Cold phases coexisting with dry periods produced the recession of forests and the development of grasses. After these periods, as both temperature and precipitation increased, forests expanded and the water level, linked to thaw, rose, especially at ca. 20 ka B.P. Few changes occurred during the Holocene, although there were short alternations between wet and dry episodes. Overall, the techniques applied proved to be excellent palaeoenvironmental proxies for studying the basin’s palaeoclimatological and palaeohydrological evolution.  相似文献   

Histogram and variogram inference in the multigaussian model   总被引：1，自引：4，他引：1  

Xavier Emery  Julián M. Ortiz 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2005,19(1):48-58

Several iterative algorithms are proposed to improve the histogram and variogram inference in the framework of the multigaussian model. The starting point is the variogram obtained after a traditional normal score transform. The subsequent step consists in simulating many sets of gaussian values with this variogram at the data locations, so that the ranking of the original values is honored. The expected gaussian transformation and the expected variogram are computed by an averaging operation over the simulated datasets. The variogram model is then updated and the procedure is repeated until convergence. Such an iterative algorithm can adapt to the case of tied data and despike the histogram. Two additional issues are also examined, referred to the modeling of the empirical transformation function and to the optimal pair weighting when computing the sample variogram.  相似文献   

Inverse Modeling of Moving Average Isotropic Kernels for Non-parametric Three-Dimensional Gaussian Simulation     

Oscar Peredo  Julián M. Ortiz  Oy Leuangthong 《Mathematical Geosciences》2016,48(5):559-579

  相似文献   

Analysis of physical factors of climate and bioclimate and their effects on almonds production to increase the economy in Hebron area of Palestine     

Jehad Mahmoud Hussein Ighbareyeh  Eusebio Cano Carmona  Ana Cano Ortiz  Asma Abdel-Rahim Ahmed Suliemieh  Mohammed Mahmoud Hussein Ighbareyeh  Abed Al-Qader Mohammed Daraweesh 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2018,11(21):683

For the 1993–2009 period, we analyzed the relationship between almond yield and three climatic variables (mean annual temperature, soil water reserve, and precipitation), and four bioclimatic variables (annual ombrothermic index, water deficit, simple continentality index, and compensated thermicity index), for one major Hebron crop (soft and hard almonds). Moreover, we obtained data almond production from the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, while the climate data from the Palestinian meteorological station during the study period from 1993 to 2009, and analysis is it by using bioclimatic classification of the Earth of Salvador Rivas-Martinez to study the relationship between the almond yield and climate and bioclimate factors (variables). The climatic and bioclimate variables of greatest importance to almond were used to develop regressions analysis relating yield to climatic conditions. Hebron was positively affected by annual ombrothermic index, simple continentality index, precipitation, water soil reserve, and mean annual temperature, but negatively affected by water deficit, with a large proportion of the variance explained by axis F1 (72.48%), F2 (22.38%), and axes F1and F2 (94. 86%). However, in order to produce a high amount of almonds and quality, it can be grown in the regions of the mesomediterranean region, with the value of annual ombrothemic index more than 3, compensated thermicity index between 220/220 to 350/350, simple continentality index between 14 and 20, and in areas where the average annual temperature is between 15 and 20 °C.  相似文献   

Microclimatology and forest plague(Dendroctonus adjunctus) in Central Mexico     

W. Ritter Ortiz  R. P. Mercado  M. C. Pérez 《GeoJournal》1993,30(4):479-481

It has been observed in at least eight places in Central Mexico that hilly zones with certain orientation and slopes have a higher-than-normal incidence of plague. In this paper, the potential insolation and the total microclimatology of an infested and a healthy zone have been studied, with the purpose of determining the condition of natural climatic stress in the vegetation that makes it susceptible to the attack and proliferation of plagues. The infested slope (NE-NW), in contrast to the healthy slope (SE-SW), has greater annual variability in the potential reception of insolation, besides a minor energy availability disposition — on a daily basis — in quantity and in number of hours, by conduction from the ground, which produces more heterogeneity in the gradient of temperature at different depths in the ground; and the wind effect tends to be more frequent, intense and prolonged. The area studied is in the National Park “La Malinche” Tlaxcala in Central Mexico.  相似文献